| id | name | parent | category | temporalState | realizationStatus | value | trend | significance | direction | magnitude | duration | probability | confidence | date | startDate | projectedEnd | leadTime | leadTimeBasis | sourceType | lastUpdated | topics | sources | evidenceFor | evidenceAgainst | leadTimeEvidence | references |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV001 | PBOC credit easing stance | - | supply | present | confirmed | Moderately accommodative stance; FX reserve ratio cut to 0% | stable | high | bullish | moderate | sustained | - | medium | 2026-01-15 | 2026-01-15 | 2026-12-31 | 3-6 months for rate cuts | announcement | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | monetary-policy,PBOC,credit-easing,banking | S001,S002 | SF001,SF002,SF003 | SF004 | SF003,SF004 | EV011 |
| EV002 | NPC 15th Five-Year Plan tech self-sufficiency | - | supply | present | confirmed | 15th Five-Year Plan approved; AI/EV/semiconductor emphasis | rising | high | bullish | moderate | structural | - | medium | 2026-03-12 | 2026-03-12 | 2031-03-31 | 5 years (plan duration) | schedule | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | industrial-policy,technology,self-sufficiency,NPC | S003 | SF005,SF006,SF007 | SF006 | - | EV004 |
| EV003 | Property sector stabilization policy | - | supply | present | confirmed | Language shift from halt decline to stabilize | stable | high | neutral | moderate | sustained | - | medium | 2026-03-05 | 2026-03-05 | 2026-12-31 | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | property,real-estate,banking,policy | S004,S005 | SF008 | SF009,SF010 | - | EV015 |
| EV004 | US chip export controls | - | supply | present | confirmed | Export controls on advanced chips to China | stable | medium | bearish | moderate | structural | - | medium | 2025-12-01 | 2022-10-07 | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | geopolitics,technology,sanctions,semiconductors | S006 | SF006 | - | - | EV002,EV005 |
| EV005 | US-China tariffs at 34% average | - | supply | present | confirmed | Cumulative average tariffs ~34% | stable | medium | bearish | moderate | structural | - | high | 2026-03-04 | 2018-07-06 | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | trade-war,tariffs,US-China,manufacturing | S007,S008 | SF023,SF025 | SF024 | - | EV006 |
| EV006 | USTR Section 301 investigation | EV005 | supply | future | registered | Section 301 hearing on China overcapacity | stable | medium | bearish | moderate | short | 0.7 | medium | 2026-05-05 | - | 2026-06-30 | 8 weeks | schedule | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | trade-war,tariffs,Section-301,manufacturing | S009 | - | - | - | EV005 |
| EV007 | Bank recapitalization 300B yuan program | EV001 | supply | present | confirmed | 300B yuan bank recapitalization via ultra-long bonds | stable | medium | bullish | moderate | sustained | - | high | 2026-03-05 | 2026-03-05 | 2026-12-31 | 6-12 months for deployment | deployment | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | banking,fiscal-policy,recapitalization | S010 | SF016 | - | - | EV001,EV021 |
| EV008 | Strong manufacturing PMI at 52.1 | - | supply | past | confirmed | PMI 52.1 — strongest since Apr 2024 | rising | medium | bullish | moderate | short | - | high | 2026-03-01 | 2026-02-28 | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | economic-data,manufacturing,PMI | S011 | - | - | - | EV009 |
| EV009 | Social financing 6.5T yuan Jan | - | supply | past | confirmed | 6.5T yuan total social financing in January | rising | medium | bullish | moderate | short | - | high | 2026-02-15 | 2026-01-01 | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | credit,social-financing,liquidity | S012 | - | - | - | EV001 |
| EV010 | Record Northbound flows 817B yuan in 2025 | - | demand | present | confirmed | 817B yuan Northbound flows in 2025 (+76% YoY) | stable | high | bullish | major | sustained | - | high | 2026-01-10 | 2025-01-01 | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | capital-flows,Northbound-Connect,foreign-investment | S013,S014 | SF011,SF012 | SF013 | - | EV020 |
| EV011 | PBOC easing pledge (RRR + rate cuts) | EV001 | demand | future | registered | PBOC pledged RRR and rate cuts at right timing | stable | high | bullish | moderate | sustained | 0.7 | medium | 2026-03-13 | - | 2026-06-30 | 1-3 months | announcement | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | monetary-policy,PBOC,RRR,interest-rates | S001 | SF003 | SF004 | SF003,SF004 | EV001 |
| EV012 | China resilient to oil shock | - | demand | present | confirmed | Strategic reserves + energy diversification advantage | rising | high | bullish | moderate | short | - | medium | 2026-03-08 | 2026-03-08 | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | energy,oil-shock,strategic-reserves,resilience | S015 | SF020,SF021,SF022 | - | - | EV017 |
| EV013 | CPI rising to 1.3% YoY, core 1.8% | - | demand | past | confirmed | CPI 1.3% YoY, core CPI 1.8% — highest core since Mar 2019 | rising | medium | bullish | moderate | short | - | high | 2026-03-10 | 2026-02-28 | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | inflation,CPI,deflation-risk | S016 | - | - | - | - |
| EV014 | GDP target lowered to 4.5-5% | - | demand | present | confirmed | GDP target 4.5-5% — lowest since 1991 | falling | high | bearish | moderate | structural | - | high | 2026-03-05 | 2026-03-05 | 2026-12-31 | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | GDP,growth-target,structural-slowdown,NPC | S017,S018 | SF014,SF015 | SF016 | - | EV021 |
| EV015 | Property sales expected -5% to -10% in 2026 | EV003 | demand | future | registered | -5% to -10% property sales decline expected | falling | high | bearish | moderate | sustained | 0.65 | medium | 2026-03-13 | - | 2026-12-31 | 9 months | estimated | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | property,real-estate,sales-decline,banking-risk | S019,S020 | SF017,SF018 | SF019 | SF019 | EV003 |
| EV016 | Weak retail sales +3.7% in 2025 | - | demand | past | confirmed | Retail sales +3.7% in 2025, down from +7.2% in 2024 | falling | medium | bearish | moderate | sustained | - | high | 2026-01-17 | 2025-01-01 | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | consumer,retail-sales,domestic-demand | S021 | - | - | - | EV015 |
| EV017 | Middle East oil surge rattling markets | - | demand | present | confirmed | Shanghai -0.1%, Shenzhen -0.63% on Mar 13 | stable | medium | bearish | minor | transient | - | high | 2026-03-13 | 2026-03-08 | 2026-04-30 | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | Middle-East,oil,risk-off,geopolitics | S022 | - | - | - | EV012,EV019 |
| EV018 | USD/CNH stable around 7.23 | - | demand | present | confirmed | USD/CNH ~7.23, stable | stable | medium | bullish | minor | short | - | high | 2026-03-13 | 2026-03-01 | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | FX,USD-CNH,capital-flows | S023 | - | - | - | EV001 |
| EV019 | VIX elevated ~30+ | - | demand | present | confirmed | VIX ~30+ | stable | low | bearish | minor | transient | - | high | 2026-03-13 | 2026-03-08 | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | volatility,risk-off,global-sentiment | S024 | - | - | - | EV017 |
| EV020 | Goldman targets 15-20% further gains | - | demand | present | confirmed | Goldman sees 15-20% further upside for Shanghai Composite | stable | medium | bullish | moderate | sustained | - | medium | 2026-03-10 | 2026-03-10 | 2026-12-31 | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | analyst-targets,institutional-outlook,positioning | S025 | - | - | - | EV010 |
| EV021 | Ultra-long bonds 1.3T + local gov special bonds 4.4T | - | demand | present | confirmed | 1.3T ultra-long bonds + 4.4T local gov special bonds | stable | medium | bullish | moderate | sustained | - | high | 2026-03-05 | 2026-03-05 | 2026-12-31 | 6-12 months for deployment | deployment | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | fiscal-policy,bonds,infrastructure,spending | S026 | SF016 | - | - | EV007,EV014 |
| EV022 | Consumer goods trade-in program 250B | EV021 | demand | present | confirmed | 250B yuan consumer goods trade-in program | stable | low | bullish | minor | short | - | medium | 2026-03-05 | 2026-03-05 | 2026-12-31 | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | consumer,fiscal-stimulus,trade-in | S026 | - | - | - | EV016 |
| id | source | author | type | date | quote | audience | credibility | impact | references |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S001 | PBOC | - | policy-doc | 2026-01-15 | Shift to moderately accommodative monetary policy stance | market | high | Most significant policy signal — signals willingness to ease credit conditions for banking sector | EV001,EV011,SF001,SF003 |
| S002 | FXStreet | - | news-report | 2026-02-27 | PBOC cuts FX risk reserve ratio to 0% from 20% effective March 2 | market | high | Concrete easing action — reduces hedging costs and signals confidence in yuan stability | EV001,SF002 |
| S003 | NPR / NPC | - | policy-doc | 2026-03-12 | 15th Five-Year Plan approved with Going Global strategy; AI, EV, semiconductor self-sufficiency emphasis | international | high | Multi-year structural policy support for tech sector names in A50 index | EV002,SF005,SF006,SF007 |
| S004 | Bloomberg | - | news-report | 2026-03-05 | Government work report shifts language from halt decline to stabilize for property sector | market | high | Signals reduced urgency on property rescue — acceptance of gradual normalization | EV003,SF008 |
| S005 | Yicai Global | - | news-report | 2026-03-10 | Property entering quality era with city-specific policies maintained | domestic | medium | Confirms no blanket stimulus for property — piecemeal approach continues | EV003,SF010 |
| S006 | US Bureau of Industry and Security | - | policy-doc | 2025-12-01 | Advanced computing chip export controls expanded to include additional Chinese entities | international | high | Constrains Chinese tech capacity expansion; drives costly domestic substitution | EV004,SF006 |
| S007 | Tax Foundation | - | data-release | 2026-03-04 | Cumulative US tariffs on China average approximately 34% | public | high | Quantifies total tariff burden on China trade — structural headwind for export manufacturing | EV005,SF023,SF025 |
| S008 | Holland & Knight | - | news-report | 2026-02-20 | Supreme Court strikes down IEEPA tariffs as unlawful; Section 232/301 tariffs unaffected | market | high | Mild positive — removes some tariff layers while structural tariffs remain | EV005,SF024 |
| S009 | USTR | - | policy-doc | 2026-03-01 | Section 301 investigation hearing scheduled for May 5 on China overcapacity | international | high | Creates uncertainty for manufacturing sectors; potential additional restrictions | EV006 |
| S010 | Bloomberg / IndexBox | - | news-report | 2026-03-05 | 300B yuan bank recapitalization program via ultra-long special bonds | market | high | Improves bank lending capacity — directly supports A50 financial sector (~40% of index) | EV007,SF016 |
| S011 | NBS China | - | data-release | 2026-03-01 | Official manufacturing PMI 52.1 in February — strongest since April 2024 | public | high | Signals healthy manufacturing capacity utilization and earnings momentum | EV008 |
| S012 | PBOC | - | data-release | 2026-02-15 | Total social financing 6.5T yuan in January 2026 | market | high | Strong credit pulse supports corporate funding and economic activity | EV009 |
| S013 | iFinD / Morningstar | - | data-release | 2026-01-10 | Northbound Stock Connect flows totaled 817B yuan in 2025, up 76% YoY | market | high | Record foreign institutional demand for A-shares despite geopolitical tensions | EV010,SF011 |
| S014 | HKEX | - | data-release | 2026-01-15 | ETF Connect expanded January 2026 — broadens foreign access to A-shares | market | high | Structural expansion of foreign access channel supports continued flows | EV010,SF012 |
| S015 | Bloomberg / SCMP | - | news-report | 2026-03-08 | China strategic oil reserves and energy diversification provide advantage vs Japan/Europe | international | medium | Supports relative equity demand rotation into China during oil shock | EV012,SF020,SF021 |
| S016 | NBS China | - | data-release | 2026-03-10 | CPI 1.3% YoY in February; core CPI 1.8% — highest core since March 2019 | public | high | Removes deflationary tail risk; supports nominal earnings growth expectations | EV013 |
| S017 | CNBC | - | news-report | 2026-03-05 | China sets 2026 GDP growth target at around 4.5-5% | international | high | Lowest target since 1991 — acknowledges structural slowdown; caps growth multiples | EV014,SF014 |
| S018 | Al Jazeera | - | news-report | 2026-03-05 | NPC GDP target first time below 5% — signals acceptance of slower growth | international | medium | International media confirms structural growth downshift narrative | EV014,SF015 |
| S019 | S&P Global | - | data-release | 2026-03-01 | China property sales expected to decline 5-10% in 2026; investment -11% YoY | market | high | Continued property pressure weighs on bank asset quality and consumer confidence | EV015,SF017,SF018 |
| S020 | Morningstar | - | news-report | 2026-03-05 | Property sales decline forecast with possible mild rebound H2 if prices stabilize | market | medium | Conditional bull case for property — stabilization possible but not base case | EV015,SF019 |
| S021 | NBS China | - | data-release | 2026-01-17 | 2025 retail sales growth +3.7%, down from +7.2% in 2024 | public | high | Weak consumer confidence limits demand for consumer discretionary earnings | EV016 |
| S022 | Reuters | - | news-report | 2026-03-13 | Shanghai Composite -0.1%, Shenzhen Component -0.63% on Middle East oil surge fears | international | high | Transient risk-off in Chinese equities from geopolitical tensions | EV017 |
| S023 | FX Markets | - | data-release | 2026-03-13 | USD/CNH stable around 7.23 following PBOC FX reserve ratio cut | market | high | Stable yuan prevents capital outflow pressure; supportive for A-shares | EV018 |
| S024 | CBOE | - | data-release | 2026-03-13 | VIX elevated above 30 | market | high | Global risk-off reduces marginal foreign appetite for EM equities | EV019 |
| S025 | Goldman Sachs | - | news-report | 2026-03-10 | Shanghai Composite targets 15-20% further gains from current levels | market | medium | Major institutional bullish outlook supports positioning flows | EV020 |
| S026 | State Council / NPC | - | policy-doc | 2026-03-05 | Fiscal deficit at 4% GDP; 1.3T ultra-long bonds + 4.4T local gov bonds + 250B consumer trade-in | domestic | high | Comprehensive fiscal backstop supports infrastructure and consumer demand | EV021,EV022,SF016 |
| id | subFactor | parent | type | valueEvidence | status | leadTime | startDate | projectedEnd | lastUpdated | sources | references |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF001 | PBOC upgraded stance from "prudent" to "moderately accommodative" | EV001 | action | Official PBOC statement Jan 2026; language shift is unprecedented in recent years | confirmed | - | 2026-01-15 | - | 2026-03-13 | S001 | EV001 |
| SF002 | PBOC cut FX risk reserve ratio to 0% from 20% effective Mar 2 | EV001 | action | FXStreet Feb 27 confirms action taken; reduces hedging costs, signals confidence | confirmed | - | 2026-03-02 | - | 2026-03-13 | S002 | EV001 |
| SF003 | PBOC pledged RRR and rate cuts "at the right timing" | EV001 | intention | Pledge made but no specific date/magnitude; policy timing uncertain | partial | 1-3 months | - | 2026-06-30 | 2026-03-13 | S001 | EV001 |
| SF004 | LPR held unchanged at 3.0% (1Y) and 3.5% (5Y) for 9 consecutive months | EV001 | constraint | TradingEconomics confirms; signals patience despite dovish rhetoric | confirmed | - | 2025-06-20 | - | 2026-03-13 | S001 | EV001 |
| SF005 | 15th Five-Year Plan formally approved at NPC Mar 12 | EV002 | action | NPR/NPC confirmed; "Going Global" strategy, AI/EV/semiconductor emphasis | confirmed | - | 2026-03-12 | 2031-03-31 | 2026-03-13 | S003 | EV002 |
| SF006 | Tech self-sufficiency includes domestic chip substitution push | EV002 | deployment | SMIC and Huawei supply chain constraints forcing domestic development | confirmed | - | 2022-10-07 | - | 2026-03-13 | S006 | EV002 |
| SF007 | State subsidies for tech sector expansion | EV002 | capability | Policy announced but specific allocation not detailed; historical precedent suggests billions in subsidies | partial | - | - | - | 2026-03-13 | S003 | EV002 |
| SF008 | Language shifted from "halt decline" to "stabilize" in govt work report | EV003 | action | Bloomberg/Yicai Mar 5-10 confirms language change; signals reduced urgency | confirmed | - | 2026-03-05 | - | 2026-03-13 | S004 | EV003 |
| SF009 | S&P expects 10-14% further property sales decline despite policy | EV003 | constraint | S&P analyst forecast explicitly cited; policy may not prevent further decline | confirmed | 9 months | - | 2026-12-31 | 2026-03-13 | S019 | EV003 |
| SF010 | City-specific policies remain in place (no uniform stimulus) | EV003 | constraint | "Quality era" approach confirms no blanket stimulus; piecemeal support | confirmed | - | 2026-03-05 | - | 2026-03-13 | S005 | EV003 |
| SF011 | Total Northbound flows 817B yuan in 2025, +76% YoY | EV010 | action | iFinD/Morningstar confirm; largest on record | confirmed | - | 2025-01-01 | - | 2026-03-13 | S013 | EV010 |
| SF012 | ETF Connect expanded Jan 2026 | EV010 | action | HKEX confirmed expansion; broadens foreign access to A-shares | confirmed | - | 2026-01-01 | - | 2026-03-13 | S014 | EV010 |
| SF013 | Daily Northbound flow data suspended since Aug 2024 | EV010 | constraint | HKEX no longer publishes daily data; reduces real-time visibility | confirmed | - | 2024-08-01 | - | 2026-03-13 | S013 | EV010 |
| SF014 | NPC set 2026 GDP target at 4.5-5%, lowest since 1991 | EV014 | action | CNBC/Al Jazeera Mar 5 confirm; first time below 5% | confirmed | - | 2026-03-05 | 2026-12-31 | 2026-03-13 | S017 | EV014 |
| SF015 | Target reflects structural slowdown acknowledgment | EV014 | precedent | Historical context shows declining targets over past 5 years | confirmed | - | - | - | 2026-03-13 | S018 | EV014 |
| SF016 | Fiscal deficit maintained at 4% GDP (~30T RMB spending) | EV014 | capability | Bloomberg/IndexBox confirm same intensity as 2025; backstop exists | confirmed | 6-12 months | 2026-03-05 | 2026-12-31 | 2026-03-13 | S010,S026 | EV014 |
| SF017 | Morningstar/S&P forecast -5% to -10% property sales decline | EV015 | capability | Analyst consensus; based on recent data trajectory | confirmed | 9 months | - | 2026-12-31 | 2026-03-13 | S019 | EV015 |
| SF018 | Property investment forecast -11% YoY | EV015 | capability | S&P explicit forecast | confirmed | 9 months | - | 2026-12-31 | 2026-03-13 | S019 | EV015 |
| SF019 | Mild rebound possible H2 2026 if prices stabilize | EV015 | intention | Morningstar conditional view; depends on price stabilization | partial | 6-9 months | - | 2026-12-31 | 2026-03-13 | S020 | EV015 |
| SF020 | Years of strategic reserve building | EV012 | capability | Bloomberg/SCMP confirm; China has been diversifying energy sources | confirmed | - | - | - | 2026-03-13 | S015 | EV012 |
| SF021 | Energy diversification away from Middle East | EV012 | action | Pipeline deals with Russia, domestic renewables expansion | confirmed | - | - | - | 2026-03-13 | S015 | EV012 |
| SF022 | Japan releasing 80M barrels, China not doing same | EV012 | precedent | Japan part of IEA release; China reserves not being tapped (confidence signal) | confirmed | - | 2026-03-08 | - | 2026-03-13 | S015 | EV012 |
| SF023 | Trump added 10% tariff Mar 4 on top of existing tariffs | EV005 | action | Tax Foundation confirms cumulative average at ~34% | confirmed | - | 2026-03-04 | - | 2026-03-13 | S007 | EV005 |
| SF024 | IEEPA tariffs struck down by Supreme Court | EV005 | action | Holland & Knight Feb 20 confirms; 35% tariff on non-CUSMA goods unlawful | confirmed | - | 2026-02-20 | - | 2026-03-13 | S008 | EV005 |
| SF025 | Section 232/301 tariffs remain in force | EV005 | constraint | Tax Foundation confirms these unaffected by court ruling | confirmed | - | 2018-07-06 | - | 2026-03-13 | S007 | EV005 |