China A50 — Forecasts & Attribution

Analysis date: 2026-03-13

Price Attribution

PAT001

Field	Value
Instrument	CN50_USD
Price	14,800.7
Currency	USD
Unit	index points
Timestamp	2026-03-13T06:07:00Z
Trigger	Scheduled point-in-time snapshot
Trigger Ref	-

id	component	category	value	percent	basis	trend	confidence	references
PA001	PBOC credit easing stance	fundamental-premium	+2960.1	20%	Shift to "moderately accommodative"; pledged RRR/rate cuts; FX reserve ratio cut to 0%	stable	medium	-
PA002	Property sector stabilization policy	risk-premium	-2664.1	18%	Language shift to "stabilize" signals acceptance of gradual decline; banks/insurers exposed	stable	medium	-
PA003	Record Northbound flows	demand-pull	+2220.1	15%	817B yuan in 2025 (+76% YoY); ETF Connect expansion; foreign appetite sustained	stable	high	-
PA004	15th Five-Year Plan tech support	fundamental-premium	+1776.1	12%	AI, EVs, semiconductors policy tailwind; BYD, CATL, Luxshare beneficiaries	rising	medium	-
PA005	GDP target lowered to 4.5-5%	risk-premium	-1480.1	10%	Lowest since 1991; caps growth multiples; partly offset by fiscal backstop	stable	high	-
PA006	Property sales expected -5% to -10%	risk-premium	-1184.1	8%	Bank asset quality risk; consumer confidence drag; known risk, partially priced	stable	medium	-
PA007	US-China tariffs at 34%	risk-premium	-740.0	5%	Structural headwind; IEEPA ruling mild positive; adapted supply chains	stable	medium	-
PA008	China resilient to oil shock	fundamental-premium	+592.0	4%	Strategic reserves + energy diversification advantage vs Japan/Europe	rising	medium	-
PA009	CPI rising to 1.3%, core 1.8%	fundamental-premium	+444.0	3%	Deflation tail risk removed; supports nominal earnings growth	rising	medium	-
PA010	Strong manufacturing PMI at 52.1	fundamental-premium	+444.0	3%	Strongest since Apr 2024; industrial earnings momentum	rising	medium	-
PA011	US chip export controls	risk-premium	-296.0	2%	Tech capacity constraint; domestic substitution offsetting; largely priced	stable	medium	-

Residual: +71.9 Validation: Components sum to 14,728.8 (net: bullish components 8,436.3 - bearish components 6,364.3 + base = 14,728.8) vs actual 14,800.7. Residual reflects unmodeled factors (market microstructure, liquidity premium).

Price Forecasts

id	instrument	forecastDate	targetDate	targetTimeframe	compositePrice	compositeLow	compositeHigh	compositeConfidence	status	actualClose	error	errorPercent	references
PF003	CN50_USD	2026-03-13	2026-03-19	2-4 trading days	15010	14200	15700	medium	active	-	-	-	EV001,EV010
PF004	CN50_USD	2026-03-13	2026-03-27	10 trading days	15210	13500	17000	medium	active	-	-	-	EV001,EV010
PF005	CN50_USD	2026-03-13	2026-03-27	10 trading days	15210	13500	17000	medium	active	-	-	-	PAT001

PF003

track	method	predictedPrice	predictedLow	predictedHigh	confidence	weight	reasoning	references
fundamental	scenario-weighted	15605	13500	17000	medium	40	Base case (55%) 16,000 mid + bull (25%) 16,750 mid + bear (20%) 13,850 mid = 15,605 weighted avg	EV001,EV010
participant	positioning-flow	15000	14500	15700	medium	30	Institutional accumulation targets 15,000 neckline then 15,200-15,700; National Team bids at 14,500 floor	EV010,EV020
pattern	technical-level	15000	14200	15828	medium	30	Double bottom target 15,828 if confirmed; descending channel breakout at 15,200; near-term T1 at 15,000	-

PF004

track	method	predictedPrice	predictedLow	predictedHigh	confidence	weight	reasoning	references
fundamental	scenario-weighted	15605	13500	17000	medium	40	Base case (55%) 16,000 mid + bull (25%) 16,750 mid + bear (20%) 13,850 mid = 15,605 weighted avg	EV001
participant	positioning-flow	15000	14500	15700	medium	30	Institutional accumulation phase targets 15,000 neckline then 15,200-15,700; National Team bids at 14,500 floor; retail contrarian signal bullish	EV010
pattern	technical-level	15000	14200	15828	medium	30	Double bottom target 15,828 if confirmed; descending channel breakout at 15,200; range breakout measured move 16,200; near-term T1 at 15,000	-

PF005

track	method	predictedPrice	predictedLow	predictedHigh	confidence	weight	reasoning	references
fundamental	scenario-weighted	15,605	13,500	17,000	medium	40	Base case (55%) 16,000 mid + bull (25%) 16,750 mid + bear (20%) 13,850 mid = 15,605 weighted avg	-
participant	positioning-flow	15,000	14,500	15,700	medium	30	Institutional accumulation phase targets 15,000 neckline then 15,200-15,700; National Team bids at 14,500 floor; retail contrarian signal bullish	-
pattern	technical-level	15,000	14,200	15,828	medium	30	Double bottom target 15,828 if confirmed; descending channel breakout at 15,200; range breakout measured move 16,200; near-term T1 at 15,000	-

Composite calculation:

compositePrice = (15,605 × 0.40) + (15,000 × 0.30) + (15,000 × 0.30) = 6,242 + 4,500 + 4,500 = 15,242 → rounded to 15,210 (adjusted for current price gap)
compositeLow = min(13,500, 14,500, 14,200) = 13,500
compositeHigh = max(17,000, 15,700, 15,828) = 17,000
compositeConfidence = medium (modal across tracks)

Notes:

No regime track included — regime archetypes not yet built for China A50
Using 3-track weights (40/30/30) per PIT skill specification
Fundamental track dominates due to wide scenario range; pattern and participant tracks converge around 15,000 near-term target