| id | name | parent | category | temporalState | realizationStatus | value | trend | significance | direction | magnitude | duration | probability | confidence | date | startDate | projectedEnd | leadTime | leadTimeBasis | sourceType | lastUpdated | topics | sources | evidenceFor | evidenceAgainst | leadTimeEvidence | references |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV001 | Grasberg force majeure | - | supply | present | confirmed | ~400ktpa offline | stable | high | bullish | major | sustained | - | high | 2026-03-13 | 2026-01-15 | 2026-06-30 | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | supply,disruption,indonesia,grasberg | S001 | SF001,SF002,SF003 | - | - | - |
| EV002 | Peru Las Bambas protests | - | supply | present | confirmed | intermittent blockades | stable | medium | bullish | moderate | sustained | - | medium | 2026-03-13 | 2025-11-01 | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | supply,disruption,peru,las-bambas | S002 | - | - | - | - |
| EV003 | Chile Capstone Mantoverde strike | - | supply | present | confirmed | ongoing strike | stable | medium | bullish | moderate | short | - | medium | 2026-03-13 | 2026-01-01 | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | supply,disruption,chile,strike | S003 | - | - | - | - |
| EV004 | Chile El Teniente rockburst | - | supply | present | confirmed | ~25kt loss 2026 | stable | low | bullish | minor | sustained | - | high | 2026-03-13 | 2025-07-01 | 2026-12-31 | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | supply,disruption,chile,codelco | S003 | - | - | - | - |
| EV005 | China smelter output cuts ~10% | - | supply | present | confirmed | ~10% capacity cuts announced | accelerating | high | bullish | major | sustained | - | high | 2026-03-13 | 2026-02-01 | 2026-12-31 | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | supply,constraint,china,smelter | S004 | SF004,SF005,SF006 | - | - | - |
| EV006 | Chile 13 copper projects advancing | - | supply | future | registered | ~500ktpa new capacity | stable | medium | bearish | minor | structural | 70% | medium | 2026-03-13 | 2026-06-01 | 2027-12-31 | 12-18 months | project timelines | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | supply,expansion,chile,projects | S005 | - | - | - | - |
| EV007 | US Section 232 tariff distortions | - | supply | present | confirmed | 50% tariff in effect | stable | high | bullish | major | sustained | - | high | 2026-03-13 | 2025-08-01 | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | policy,tariff,us,section232 | S006 | SF007,SF008,SF009 | - | - | EV017 |
| EV008 | Global inventory at 23-year high | - | supply | present | confirmed | 1.39M tonnes | stable | high | bearish | major | transient | - | high | 2026-03-13 | 2026-01-01 | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | inventory,bearish,global,stocks | S007 | SF010,SF011 | - | - | - |
| EV009 | China manufacturing PMI contraction | - | demand | past | confirmed | 49.0 | decelerating | high | bearish | moderate | short | - | high | 2026-03-04 | - | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | demand,china,pmi,manufacturing | S008 | SF015,SF016 | EV013 | - | - |
| EV010 | China copper imports -16.1% YoY | - | demand | past | confirmed | -16.1% YoY | decelerating | high | bearish | major | sustained | - | high | 2026-03-10 | - | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | demand,china,imports,weak | S009 | SF012,SF013,SF014 | - | - | - |
| EV011 | China refined output slowing to +5% | - | demand | present | confirmed | +5% YoY growth forecast | decelerating | medium | bearish | moderate | sustained | - | medium | 2026-03-13 | - | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | demand,china,output,slowing | S010 | - | - | - | - |
| EV012 | Chinese traders net short copper | - | demand | present | confirmed | net short | stable | medium | bearish | moderate | short | - | medium | 2026-03-13 | - | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | positioning,china,shfe,bearish | S011 | - | - | - | - |
| EV013 | Private Caixin PMI divergence positive | - | demand | past | confirmed | 52.1 | accelerating | medium | bullish | moderate | short | - | medium | 2026-03-04 | - | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | demand,china,pmi,private | S012 | - | EV009 | - | - |
| EV014 | China copper ore imports +4.9% YoY | - | demand | past | confirmed | +4.9% YoY | stable | medium | bullish | minor | sustained | - | high | 2026-03-10 | - | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | demand,china,ore,smelter | S009 | - | - | - | - |
| EV015 | US stagflation risk | - | demand | present | confirmed | -92K jobs, 4.4% unemployment | accelerating | high | bearish | moderate | short | - | high | 2026-03-06 | - | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | demand,us,stagflation,macro | S013 | - | - | - | - |
| EV016 | Iran war economic uncertainty | - | demand | present | confirmed | VIX ~30+ | decelerating | medium | bearish | moderate | transient | - | medium | 2026-03-13 | 2026-03-06 | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | demand,macro,uncertainty,war | S014 | - | - | - | - |
| EV017 | US tariff arbitrage demand | - | demand | present | confirmed | 590k short tons COMEX record | stable | high | bullish | major | sustained | - | high | 2026-03-13 | 2025-08-01 | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | demand,tariff,arbitrage,comex | S007 | SF017,SF018 | - | - | EV007 |
| id | source | author | type | date | quote | audience | credibility | impact | references |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S001 | J.P. Morgan/Mining.com | - | analyst-report | 2026-03-10 | Block Cave production halted following fatal mudslide; force majeure declared | professional | high | Grasberg ~400ktpa offline until Q2 2026 | EV001 |
| S002 | Mining.com | - | news-report | 2026-03-08 | Informal miners staged protests over stricter permit rules, blocking key transport routes | public | high | Las Bambas intermittent disruptions ongoing | EV002 |
| S003 | Invezz/DiscoveryAlert | - | news-report | 2026-01-05 | Chilean strike and vanishing LME stocks propel copper prices to record | public | medium | Chile supply disruptions contributing to tightness | EV003,EV004 |
| S004 | GF Futures/Citic Securities | - | analyst-report | 2026-03-10 | Chinese smelters announcing ~10% capacity cuts due to low TC/RC | professional | high | May create ~450kt refined deficit | EV005 |
| S005 | Mining.com | - | news-report | 2026-02-15 | Chile loads its copper cannon with 13 projects for a bullish 2026 | public | high | ~500ktpa new capacity 2026-2027 | EV006 |
| S006 | Federal Register/White House | - | government-official | 2025-07-30 | 50% tariff on semi-finished copper products effective August 1, 2025 | public | high | Tariff driving COMEX stockpiling and arbitrage | EV007 |
| S007 | LME/SHFE/COMEX | - | market-data | 2026-03-13 | Combined global copper stocks at 1.39M tonnes, 23-year high | public | high | Inventory overhang creates price resistance | EV008,EV017 |
| S008 | NBS China | - | government-official | 2026-03-04 | Official Manufacturing PMI at 49.0 in February | public | high | Second consecutive month of contraction | EV009 |
| S009 | China Customs | - | government-official | 2026-03-10 | Copper imports -16.1% YoY in Jan-Feb | public | high | Weak fabricator demand confirmed | EV010,EV014 |
| S010 | China Nonferrous Metals Association | - | industry-report | 2026-03-08 | Refined copper output growth forecast +5% YoY for 2026, down from ~10% in 2025 | professional | high | Growth slowing | EV011 |
| S011 | S&P Global | - | analyst-report | 2026-01-15 | Chinese traders net short copper; divergence from LME | professional | high | Local demand soft | EV012 |
| S012 | RatingDog/Caixin | - | news-report | 2026-03-04 | Caixin PMI at 52.1, highest since Dec 2020 | public | medium | Private sector diverges from official data | EV013 |
| S013 | BLS | - | government-official | 2026-03-06 | Non-Farm Payrolls -92,000; unemployment 4.4% | public | high | US stagflation risk rising | EV015 |
| S014 | CBOE | - | market-data | 2026-03-13 | VIX elevated ~30+ | public | high | War uncertainty, economic concerns | EV016 |
| id | subFactor | parent | type | valueEvidence | status | leadTime | startDate | projectedEnd | lastUpdated | sources | references |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF001 | Block Cave production halted | EV001 | action | Fatal mudslide triggered closure; Freeport-McMoRan confirmed force majeure | confirmed | - | 2026-01-15 | 2026-06-30 | 2026-03-13 | S001 | EV001 |
| SF002 | Block Cave represents 70% of Grasberg output | EV001 | capability | J.P. Morgan/Mining.com analysis confirms production split | confirmed | - | - | - | 2026-03-13 | S001 | EV001 |
| SF003 | ~400ktpa offline until Q2 2026 | EV001 | deployment | Timeline is estimate; Q2 restart not yet confirmed by operator | partial | Q2 2026 | - | 2026-06-30 | 2026-03-13 | S001 | EV001 |
| SF004 | Low TC/RC squeezing smelter margins | EV005 | constraint | Treatment/refining charges at multi-year lows confirmed by industry benchmarks | confirmed | - | 2025-06-01 | - | 2026-03-13 | S004 | EV005 |
| SF005 | Chinese smelters announcing capacity cuts | EV005 | action | GF Futures/Citic Securities report smelter announcements | confirmed | - | 2026-02-01 | - | 2026-03-13 | S004 | EV005 |
| SF006 | May create ~450kt refined deficit | EV005 | capability | Industry estimate; actual deficit depends on cut implementation and demand | partial | - | - | 2026-12-31 | 2026-03-13 | S004 | EV005 |
| SF007 | 50% tariff on semi-finished copper in effect since Aug 2025 | EV007 | action | Federal Register/White House Jul 2025; tariff operational | confirmed | - | 2025-08-01 | - | 2026-03-13 | S006 | EV007 |
| SF008 | COMEX stocks at record high due to tariff front-loading | EV007 | action | COMEX 590k short tons, highest since 2003; tariff-driven | confirmed | - | 2025-08-01 | - | 2026-03-13 | S007 | EV007 |
| SF009 | Potential 15% refined tariff Jan 2027 | EV007 | intention | Commerce Dept review; Jun 30 2026 report deadline; not yet decided | partial | Jun 2026 review | - | 2027-01-01 | 2026-03-13 | S006 | EV007 |
| SF010 | Combined exchange stocks at 1.39M tonnes | EV008 | action | LME + SHFE + COMEX totals confirmed | confirmed | - | 2026-01-01 | - | 2026-03-13 | S007 | EV008 |
| SF011 | Citi: inventory buildup is "illusory" strategic stockpiling | EV008 | precedent | Analyst interpretation; "just-in-case" vs demand weakness argument | partial | - | - | - | 2026-03-13 | S007 | EV008 |
| SF012 | Jan-Feb customs data shows ~700kt | EV010 | action | China Customs March 2026 release | confirmed | - | - | - | 2026-03-13 | S009 | EV010 |
| SF013 | Yangshan premium fell to $34/t | EV010 | action | Market data confirms weak import appetite | confirmed | - | - | - | 2026-03-13 | S009 | EV010 |
| SF014 | Fabricator demand soft | EV010 | constraint | Industry reports confirm downstream weakness | confirmed | - | - | - | 2026-03-13 | S009 | EV010 |
| SF015 | Official NBS PMI at 49.0 | EV009 | action | NBS released Mar 4 | confirmed | - | - | - | 2026-03-13 | S008 | EV009 |
| SF016 | Second consecutive month below 50 | EV009 | precedent | Prior month 49.3; trend confirmed | confirmed | - | - | - | 2026-03-13 | S008 | EV009 |
| SF017 | COMEX registered at 590k short tons (~534kt) | EV017 | action | CME data; record since 2003 | confirmed | - | 2025-08-01 | - | 2026-03-13 | S007 | EV017 |
| SF018 | LME-COMEX arbitrage driving physical metal flows | EV017 | deployment | Premium differentials driving warehouse transfers | confirmed | - | - | - | 2026-03-13 | S007 | EV017 |