| entity | type | weight | basis | confidence | lastUpdated | references |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV008 | event | 20 | Dominant near-term price depressant. 1.39M tonnes across exchanges creates visible overhang despite structural deficit narrative. Market trades what it sees, and visible stocks are at multi-decade highs. | high | 2026-03-13 | EV008,SF010,SF011 |
| EV007 | event | 18 | Driving COMEX to record stocks and creating artificial arbitrage demand. Distorts true supply-demand picture. Creates regional premiums. Potential Jan 2027 refined tariff adds uncertainty. | high | 2026-03-13 | EV007,SF007,SF008,SF009,EV017 |
| EV010 | event | 15 | China is 55% of global demand. Weak Jan-Feb imports with Yangshan premium collapse signals genuine demand softness, not just seasonal factors. | high | 2026-03-13 | EV010,SF012,SF013,SF014 |
| EV001 | event | 12 | Largest single mine disruption at ~400ktpa. Partially priced in but duration uncertainty (Q2 restart not confirmed) keeps supply premium in price. | high | 2026-03-13 | EV001,SF001,SF002,SF003 |
| EV005 | event | 10 | Structural supply response to low TC/RC. ~450kt potential refined deficit is significant. Supports floor under prices despite inventory overhang. | medium | 2026-03-13 | EV005,SF004,SF005,SF006 |
| EV009 | event | 8 | Second consecutive month below 50 confirms demand headwinds. But private PMI divergence (52.1) tempers bearishness. | high | 2026-03-13 | EV009,SF015,SF016 |
| EV015 | event | 6 | -92K jobs, 4.4% unemployment, ISM prices at 70.5. Stagflation environment is negative for industrial metals, but US is <15% of copper demand. | high | 2026-03-13 | EV015 |
| EV017 | event | 5 | Artificial demand pull to COMEX. Supporting US prices but distorts fundamentals. Will unwind when tariff clarity emerges. | high | 2026-03-13 | EV017,SF017,SF018 |
| - | event | 4 | Las Bambas protests, Mantoverde strike, El Teniente rockburst collectively add ~50-100ktpa disruption. Supportive but not dominant. | - | 2026-03-13 | - |
| - | event | 2 | Medium-term bearish: 500ktpa new capacity coming 2026-2027. But lag to production means minimal near-term impact. | - | 2026-03-13 | - |
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Overall Bias | bearish |
| Confidence | medium |
| Time Horizon | 2-4 weeks |
| Key Driver | EV008: Global inventory at 23-year high creates visible overhang despite structural deficit narrative |
| Key Risk | China stimulus announcement (Politburo/PBOC) or Grasberg restart delay beyond Q2 could flip bias to bullish |
| rank | id | name | type | why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | EV008 | Global inventory at 23-year high | unified-event | 20% influence weight. Dominant near-term price depressant. 1.39M tonnes across exchanges creates visible overhang despite structural deficit narrative. Market trades what it sees, and visible stocks are at multi-decade hig |
| 2 | EV007 | US Section 232 tariff distortions | unified-event | 18% influence weight. Driving COMEX to record stocks and creating artificial arbitrage demand. Distorts true supply-demand picture. Creates regional premiums. Potential Jan 2027 refined tariff adds uncertainty. |
| 3 | EV010 | China copper imports -16.1% YoY | unified-event | 15% influence weight. China is 55% of global demand. Weak Jan-Feb imports with Yangshan premium collapse signals genuine demand softness, not just seasonal factors. |
| 4 | EV001 | Grasberg force majeure | unified-event | 12% influence weight. Largest single mine disruption at ~400ktpa. Partially priced in but duration uncertainty (Q2 restart not confirmed) keeps supply premium in price. |
| 5 | EV005 | China smelter output cuts ~10% | unified-event | 10% influence weight. Structural supply response to low TC/RC. ~450kt potential refined deficit is significant. Supports floor under prices despite inventory overhang. |
| scenario | probability | priceTarget | keyAssumption | keyEvents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base: Range-bound consolidation | 55% | $5.50-5.80/lb | Inventory overhang caps upside; supply disruptions cap downside; China demand remains soft | EV008,EV010,EV001,EV005 |
| Bear: Breakdown toward $5.20-5.40 | 30% | $5.20-5.40/lb | China PMI stays below 50; inventory builds continue; tariff uncertainty resolved bearishly | EV009,EV008,EV007 |
| Bull: Rally toward $6.00-6.20 | 15% | $6.00-6.20/lb | China announces property/infrastructure stimulus; Grasberg restart delayed beyond Q2; smelter cuts deepen | EV001,EV005,EV006 |
| id | risk | trigger | wouldChangeBiasTo | monitoringSignal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R001 | China stimulus package | PBOC RRR cut, property sector support, infrastructure spending increase | bullish | Politburo meeting announcements, PBOC statements, State Council directives |
| R002 | Grasberg restart delay | Freeport announces Q3+ timeline | bullish | Company announcements, Indonesia mining ministry statements |
| R003 | Faster inventory drawdown | Weekly exchange stock reports show sustained draws | bullish | LME/SHFE/COMEX inventory data, warrant cancellation rates |
| R004 | US tariff escalation | Commerce recommends 15%+ refined tariff | neutral-to-bearish longer term | Jun 30 2026 Commerce report, White House statements |
| R005 | Deeper China PMI contraction | March PMI below 48.5 | bearish | NBS release early April |
| priority | id | item | checkFrequency | nextCheck | triggerCondition |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MP001 | LME/SHFE/COMEX weekly inventory | daily | 2026-03-14 | Combined stocks move >5% in either direction |
| 2 | MP002 | China March PMI | monthly | 2026-04-01 | Reading <48.5 (bearish) or >50 (bullish) |
| 3 | MP003 | Grasberg restart updates | weekly | 2026-03-20 | Freeport production guidance changes |
| 4 | MP004 | China stimulus announcements | continuous | 2026-03-14 | PBOC/State Council policy statements |
| 5 | MP005 | Yangshan copper premium | weekly | 2026-03-20 | Premium rises above $50/t (import demand recovering) |
| 6 | MP006 | US Commerce tariff review | monthly | 2026-04-01 | Any interim statements ahead of Jun 30 report |
| 7 | MP007 | Chinese smelter production data | monthly | 2026-04-15 | Actual cuts vs announced cuts comparison |