| id | name | parent | category | temporalState | realizationStatus | value | trend | significance | direction | magnitude | duration | probability | confidence | date | startDate | projectedEnd | leadTime | leadTimeBasis | sourceType | lastUpdated | topics | sources | evidenceFor | evidenceAgainst | leadTimeEvidence | references |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV001 | German fiscal expansion - 500B infrastructure/climate fund | - | supply | present | confirmed | EUR 500B infrastructure/climate fund announced | stable | high | bullish | major | structural | - | high | 2026-03-10 | 2026-03-10 | 2031-12-31 | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | fiscal,stimulus,infrastructure,germany | S001,S002 | SF001,SF002,SF003,SF004,SF005 | - | - | EV009 |
| EV002 | German defense spending increase | EV001 | supply | present | confirmed | Defense spending increase included in fiscal package | accelerating | medium | bullish | moderate | sustained | - | high | 2026-03-10 | 2026-03-10 | 2030-12-31 | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | defense,spending,germany,rheinmetall | S001,S003 | SF002 | - | - | EV001 |
| EV003 | German manufacturing PMI expansion (50.9) | - | supply | present | confirmed | German manufacturing PMI 50.9 (first expansion in 3.5 years) | accelerating | high | bullish | moderate | short | - | high | 2026-02-20 | 2026-02-01 | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | pmi,manufacturing,germany,expansion | S004 | SF011,SF012 | SF013 | - | EV010 |
| EV004 | German Q4 2025 GDP growth (+0.3% QoQ) | - | supply | past | confirmed | German Q4 2025 GDP +0.3% QoQ | stable | medium | bullish | moderate | short | - | high | 2026-02-28 | 2025-10-01 | 2025-12-31 | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | gdp,germany,growth | S005 | - | - | - | - |
| EV005 | Energy cost shock from oil/gas spike | EV013 | supply | present | confirmed | Energy costs spiked +50% (TTF) from Iran conflict | decelerating | high | bearish | major | short | - | high | 2026-02-28 | 2026-02-28 | 2026-04-15 | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | energy,ttf,oil,iran,germany | S006,S007 | SF006,SF007,SF008 | SF009 | - | EV013 |
| EV006 | EUR strength headwind | - | supply | present | confirmed | EUR appreciation hurting export competitiveness | stable | medium | bearish | moderate | sustained | - | medium | 2026-03-13 | 2026-02-15 | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | eur,fx,exports,germany | S008 | SF014,SF015,SF016 | - | - | - |
| EV007 | German Bund yield spike (+16bp to 2.89%) | - | supply | present | confirmed | German Bund yield 2.89% (+16bp) | accelerating | medium | bearish | moderate | short | - | high | 2026-03-13 | 2026-03-06 | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | bund,yield,rates,germany | S009 | - | - | - | EV008 |
| EV008 | ECB potential rate hold due to oil shock | - | supply | future | expected | ECB rate decision Mar 17-18 (expected 25bp cut) | stable | medium | bearish | minor | short | 70% | medium | 2026-03-17 | - | - | 4d | scheduled meeting | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | ecb,rates,policy,eurozone | S010 | - | - | - | EV007 |
| EV009 | German fiscal stimulus (500B fund) | - | demand | present | confirmed | EUR 500B fiscal stimulus driving domestic demand | stable | high | bullish | major | structural | - | high | 2026-03-10 | 2026-03-10 | 2031-12-31 | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | fiscal,stimulus,demand,germany | S001,S002 | SF001,SF002,SF003,SF004,SF005 | - | - | EV001 |
| EV010 | Manufacturing confidence highest since Feb 2022 | EV003 | demand | present | confirmed | Manufacturing confidence highest since Feb 2022 | accelerating | medium | bullish | moderate | short | - | medium | 2026-03-10 | 2026-02-15 | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | confidence,manufacturing,germany | S011 | SF011,SF012 | SF013 | - | EV003 |
| EV011 | Eurozone composite PMI expansion (51.9) | - | demand | present | confirmed | Eurozone composite PMI 51.9 (expansion) | stable | medium | bullish | moderate | short | - | high | 2026-03-05 | 2026-02-01 | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | pmi,eurozone,expansion | S012 | - | - | - | EV003 |
| EV012 | DAX technical oversold condition (RSI 31.8) | EV014 | demand | present | confirmed | DAX RSI 31.8 (oversold) | stable | medium | bullish | moderate | transient | - | high | 2026-03-13 | 2026-03-09 | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | technical,rsi,oversold,dax | S013 | SF020,SF021,SF022 | - | - | EV014 |
| EV013 | Iran conflict oil shock impact on German economy | - | demand | present | confirmed | Iran conflict causing energy shock to German economy | decelerating | high | bearish | major | short | - | high | 2026-02-28 | 2026-02-28 | 2026-04-15 | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | iran,war,energy,germany,economy | S006,S007,S014 | SF006,SF007,SF008,SF010 | SF009 | - | EV005,EV014 |
| EV014 | DAX 10% correction - deepest of major indices | EV013 | demand | present | confirmed | DAX -10% correction (deepest of major indices) | decelerating | high | bearish | major | short | - | high | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-12 | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | dax,correction,selloff | S013,S015 | SF021 | - | - | EV013,EV012 |
| EV015 | China demand uncertainty | - | demand | present | confirmed | China demand uncertainty weighing on German exports | stable | medium | bearish | moderate | sustained | - | medium | 2026-03-05 | 2025-09-01 | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | china,demand,exports,germany,auto | S016,S017 | SF017,SF018,SF019 | - | - | - |
| EV016 | US recession risk from jobs miss | - | demand | present | confirmed | US NFP miss (-92K) raising recession risk | stable | medium | bearish | moderate | sustained | - | medium | 2026-03-07 | 2026-03-07 | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | us,jobs,recession,nfp | S018 | - | - | - | - |
| EV017 | US-China tariff escalation | - | demand | present | confirmed | US-China tariff escalation (34% average) | stable | medium | bearish | moderate | sustained | - | high | 2026-03-04 | 2026-02-01 | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | tariffs,us,china,trade | S019 | - | - | - | EV015 |
| EV018 | Analyst targets remain constructive (25,000-27,500) | - | demand | present | confirmed | Analyst targets 25,000-27,500 (constructive) | stable | medium | bullish | moderate | sustained | - | medium | 2026-03-12 | - | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | analyst,targets,dax | S020 | - | - | - | - |
| id | source | author | type | date | quote | audience | credibility | impact | references |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S001 | German Government | - | official-statement | 2026-03-10 | 500B infrastructure and climate fund announced with debt brake amendment | public | high | major | EV001,EV002,EV009 |
| S002 | DZ Bank | - | research-note | 2026-03-11 | DAX target raised to 27,500 on fiscal expansion | institutional | high | moderate | EV001 |
| S003 | CMC Markets | - | market-analysis | 2026-03-12 | German defense spending boost benefits Rheinmetall, MTU | public | medium | moderate | EV002 |
| S004 | S&P Global | - | economic-data | 2026-02-20 | German manufacturing PMI 50.9 - first expansion since Aug 2022 | public | high | major | EV003 |
| S005 | Destatis | - | economic-data | 2026-02-28 | German GDP Q4 2025 +0.3% QoQ | public | high | moderate | EV004 |
| S006 | TTF Gas Exchange | - | market-data | 2026-03-13 | TTF front-month at EUR 48/MWh, +50% since Feb 28 | public | high | major | EV005,EV013 |
| S007 | Reuters | - | news-report | 2026-03-12 | Brent crude recovers to $101 after volatile week | public | high | major | EV005,EV013 |
| S008 | Leverage Shares | - | market-analysis | 2026-03-13 | EUR appreciation weighing on DAX exporter earnings | institutional | medium | moderate | EV006 |
| S009 | Tradeweb | - | market-data | 2026-03-13 | 10Y Bund yield 2.89%, +16bp on energy inflation fears | public | high | moderate | EV007 |
| S010 | Bank of America | - | research-note | 2026-03-11 | ECB expected to deliver final 25bp cut at Mar 17-18 meeting | institutional | high | moderate | EV008 |
| S011 | IFO Institute | - | economic-data | 2026-03-10 | Manufacturing confidence highest since Feb 2022 on stimulus hopes | public | high | moderate | EV010 |
| S012 | S&P Global | - | economic-data | 2026-03-05 | Eurozone composite PMI 51.9, services leading | public | high | moderate | EV011 |
| S013 | CapitalStreetFX | - | market-analysis | 2026-03-13 | DAX RSI at 31.8, extremely oversold territory | public | medium | moderate | EV012,EV014 |
| S014 | US DoD | - | official-statement | 2026-03-12 | Trump: Iran conflict practically nothing left | public | high | major | EV013 |
| S015 | Bloomberg | - | market-data | 2026-03-13 | DAX 23,466 down 10% from Jan ATH of 25,507 | public | high | major | EV014 |
| S016 | NPC China | - | official-statement | 2026-03-05 | GDP target 4.5-5%, lowest since 1991 | public | high | moderate | EV015 |
| S017 | S&P Global Ratings | - | research-note | 2026-03-08 | China property sales expected -5% to -10% in 2026 | institutional | high | moderate | EV015 |
| S018 | BLS | - | economic-data | 2026-03-07 | US NFP -92K, worst since pandemic, unemployment 4.4% | public | high | major | EV016 |
| S019 | USTR | - | official-statement | 2026-03-04 | Section 301 tariffs on China average 34% | public | high | moderate | EV017 |
| S020 | Deutsche Bank | - | research-note | 2026-03-12 | DAX year-end target 25,000 | institutional | high | minor | EV018 |
| id | subFactor | parent | type | valueEvidence | status | leadTime | startDate | projectedEnd | lastUpdated | sources | references |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF001 | Debt brake amendment passed | - | action | Bundestag approved constitutional amendment enabling off-budget spending | confirmed | - | 2026-03-10 | - | 2026-03-13 | S001 | - |
| SF002 | 500B euro fund announced | - | action | Infrastructure and climate spending fund officially announced; CMC Markets and DZ Bank confirmed | confirmed | - | 2026-03-10 | - | 2026-03-13 | S001,S002 | - |
| SF003 | Infrastructure spending is growth-accretive | - | precedent | Historical fiscal multipliers for infrastructure ~1.5-2.0x; established economic literature | confirmed | - | - | - | 2026-03-13 | - | - |
| SF004 | Multi-year deployment timeline | - | deployment | Fund announced but disbursement schedule not fully detailed; likely 5-10 year horizon | partial | - | 2026-03-10 | 2031-12-31 | 2026-03-13 | S001 | - |
| SF005 | Political commitment to full deployment | - | intention | Coalition agreement includes infrastructure modernization priority | confirmed | - | - | - | 2026-03-13 | S001 | - |
| SF006 | TTF natural gas +50% since Feb 28 | - | action | QatarEnergy force majeure; Ras Laffan complex shut; 20% global LNG supply | confirmed | - | 2026-02-28 | - | 2026-03-13 | S006 | - |
| SF007 | Brent crude at ~$101 with extreme volatility | - | action | $120 spike, $84 crash, ~$101 recovery; IEA 400M barrel release failed to contain | confirmed | - | 2026-02-28 | - | 2026-03-13 | S007 | - |
| SF008 | Hormuz Strait remains blocked | - | action | Iran IRGC mining strait; limited traffic resuming but insurance costs prohibitive | confirmed | - | 2026-03-01 | - | 2026-03-13 | S007 | - |
| SF009 | War winding down in 2-4 weeks | - | intention | Trump says "practically nothing left" but no ceasefire signed; uncertain timeline | partial | 14-28d | - | 2026-04-10 | 2026-03-13 | S014 | - |
| SF010 | Germany reliant on imported energy | - | constraint | Germany lacks domestic oil/gas production; dependent on global energy markets | confirmed | - | - | - | 2026-03-13 | - | - |
| SF011 | February PMI at 50.9 (above 50 = expansion) | - | action | First time above 50 in 3.5 years per S&P Global Feb 20 release | confirmed | - | 2026-02-01 | - | 2026-03-13 | S004 | - |
| SF012 | New orders robust | - | capability | PMI report showed new orders component improving alongside headline | confirmed | - | 2026-02-01 | - | 2026-03-13 | S004 | - |
| SF013 | Sustainability of expansion unclear | - | precedent | Single month above 50 after 42 months of contraction; needs confirmation | partial | - | - | - | 2026-03-13 | - | - |
| SF014 | Euro appreciating vs major currencies | EV006 | action | EUR/USD firmer per Leverage Shares reporting | confirmed | - | 2026-02-15 | - | 2026-03-13 | S008 | EV006 |
| SF015 | Export competitiveness drag | EV006 | constraint | DAX heavy in exporters (autos, chemicals, industrials); EUR appreciation hurts pricing power | confirmed | - | - | - | 2026-03-13 | S008 | EV006 |
| SF016 | Earnings translation hit | EV006 | constraint | Non-EUR revenues translate to fewer euros when repatriated | confirmed | - | - | - | 2026-03-13 | - | EV006 |
| SF017 | China GDP target 4.5-5% (lowest on record) | EV015 | action | NPC Mar 5 set lowest target since 1991; acknowledges structural slowdown | confirmed | - | 2026-03-05 | - | 2026-03-13 | S016 | EV015 |
| SF018 | Property sales expected -5% to -10% in 2026 | EV015 | capability | S&P and Morningstar forecasts; ongoing property sector stress | confirmed | - | - | 2026-12-31 | 2026-03-13 | S017 | EV015 |
| SF019 | German auto sector exposed to China | EV015 | constraint | VW, BMW, Mercedes derive 30-40% of revenues from China; China slowdown impacts | confirmed | - | - | - | 2026-03-13 | - | EV015 |
| SF020 | RSI at 31.8 (below 30 = oversold) | - | action | CapitalStreetFX reported RSI near oversold threshold | confirmed | - | 2026-03-09 | - | 2026-03-13 | S013 | - |
| SF021 | 10% correction from ATH | - | action | DAX at 23,466 from 25,507 high; deepest correction of major indices | confirmed | - | 2026-02-12 | - | 2026-03-13 | S015 | - |
| SF022 | Mean reversion tendency at oversold levels | - | precedent | Historically RSI <35 often precedes bounces; not guaranteed | confirmed | - | - | - | 2026-03-13 | - | - |