Post-capitulation recovery trade on DAX. The index has corrected 10% from ATH — the deepest correction among major global indices — driven by the Iran-US conflict energy shock. Technical capitulation signals (Mar 9 wick at 22,700, RSI 31.8) suggest near-term selling is exhausted.
Catalyst: Iran war resolution expected in 2-4 weeks per US government statements. Energy price normalization (TTF from €48 to €35, Brent from $101 to $85) would remove the primary bearish driver.
Structural support: German €500B fiscal stimulus provides medium-term fundamental support. Manufacturing PMI expansion (50.9) for first time in 3.5 years suggests cyclical trough.
Entry Tiers
Tier
Entry Zone
Status
Win %
Kelly
Half-Kelly
Size
T1
<22,500
Limit
90%
85.0%
42.5%
30%
T2
22,500-23,250
Limit
75%
60.4%
30.2%
30%
T3
23,250-23,500
Limit
65%
44.0%
22.0%
25%
T4
23,500-23,700
ACTIVE
60%
10.6%
5.3%
15%
Exit Strategy
Profit Targets
Target
Price
Trigger
Action
PT1
24,000
First resistance
Take 25% profit
PT2
24,500
Primary target
Take 50% profit
PT3
25,000
Stretch target
Close remaining
Stop Loss
Level
Price
Trigger
Action
Initial Stop
22,700
Close below Mar 9 low
Close all positions
Trailing Stop
Dynamic
1.5 ATR below swing high
Protect profits
Time Stop
Date
Condition
Action
2026-03-27
Not at PT1
Reassess; consider exit
2026-04-11
Opportunity expired
Close regardless
Key Levels
Level
Type
Significance
25,547
ATH
Maximum reference
25,000
Resistance
Feb 27 breakdown; stretch target
24,500
Resistance
PT2; channel upper bound
24,000
Resistance
PT1; near-term target
23,693
Current
Entry point
23,250
Support
Double bottom; T3 entry
22,700
Support
Capitulation low; stop loss
22,500
Invalidation
T1 entry; thesis invalidation
22,000
Support
Psychological; crash scenario
Risk Assessment
Risk
Probability
Impact
Mitigation
War escalation
10%
High (-15% to 20,500)
Stop at 22,700
Energy price spike
15%
Medium (-5%)
Monitor TTF/Brent daily
ECB hawkish surprise
10%
Low (-2%)
Positioned for cut; minor risk
EUR appreciation
20%
Low (-2%)
Structural; not thesis-breaking
China demand shock
15%
Medium (-5%)
Monitor China data
Monitoring Triggers
Signal
Condition
Action
Bullish Upgrade
War resolution; TTF <€35; break 24,000
Add to position
Bearish Downgrade
War escalation; TTF >€60; break 22,700
Close all
Neutral
Range 23,000-24,000
Hold; monitor
Evidence Summary
Bullish (supporting thesis)
1. Capitulation complete: Mar 9 wick (22,700 → 23,800) with volume spike 2. Oversold extreme: RSI 31.8 (5th percentile) 3. War ending: Trump says "practically nothing left" (2-4 week timeline) 4. Fiscal support: €500B stimulus; debt brake suspension 5. PMI expansion: 50.9 — first time above 50 in 3.5 years 6. Regime alignment: PATH-B (Gradual Recovery) best fit at 66.5 score
Bearish (risks to monitor)
1. Energy elevated: TTF +50%, Brent $101 (war premium) 2. Distribution pattern: Velocity ratio 0.72 (institutional selling) 3. Downtrend intact: Descending channel; no confirmed reversal 4. EUR headwind: Appreciation hurting export competitiveness 5. China drag: GDP target lowest on record; property stress
Position Sizing
Field
Value
Account
101-003-2582190-001
Balance
SGD 9,999.77
Grant Budget (10%)
SGD 999.98
Aggregate Half-Kelly
16.4%
Position Budget
SGD 164
Risk per Trade
~1% of account
Next Steps
1. `/trade-execute de30` — Deploy orders across tiers 2. Monitor daily: War headlines, TTF/Brent prices, DAX vs 22,700/24,000 3. Review weekly: Update path alignment scores 4. Revalidate if: DAX breaks 22,700 (stop) or 24,500 (PT2)
Intermediates
All analysis preserved in: `trades/de30/opportunities/OPP-2026-03-13T14-30-00Z/`
`range-bounds.md` — Fundamental scenario mapping
`price-dynamics.md` — S/R levels and velocity analysis
`regime-adjustment.md` — Path probability adjustments
`kelly-analysis.md` — Per-tier Kelly calculations
Change Log
Date
Version
Changes
2026-03-13
1.0
Initial opportunity. LONG bias with 67.5% win probability. Primary target 24,500. Stop 22,700.