| id | name | parent | category | temporalState | realizationStatus | value | trend | significance | direction | magnitude | duration | probability | confidence | date | startDate | projectedEnd | leadTime | leadTimeBasis | sourceType | lastUpdated | topics | sources | evidenceFor | evidenceAgainst | leadTimeEvidence | references |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV001 | Hormuz closure disrupts gold-bearing refinery feedstock | - | supply | present | confirmed | Minor gold supply disruption via Gulf refinery routes | stable | low | bullish | minor | short | - | medium | 2026-03-08 | 2026-03-01 | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-08 | supply,logistics,gulf | S001 | - | - | - | EV007 |
| EV002 | Central bank structural buying (585t/quarter) | - | supply | present | confirmed | 585 tonnes/quarter central bank gold buying | accelerating | high | bullish | major | structural | - | high | 2026-03-08 | 2022-03-01 | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-08 | supply,central-bank,structural | S002,S003 | SF006 | - | - | EV010,EV018 |
| EV003 | Mine production stable at ~3,600 tonnes/year | - | supply | present | confirmed | ~3,600 tonnes annual mine production | stable | low | neutral | minor | structural | - | high | 2026-03-08 | - | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-08 | supply,production | S004 | - | - | - | - |
| EV004 | Scrap/recycling supply elevated at $5,100+ prices | - | supply | present | confirmed | 1,300-1,400 tonnes/year scrap recycling | accelerating | medium | bearish | moderate | sustained | - | medium | 2026-03-08 | - | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-08 | supply,scrap,price-driven | S004 | - | - | - | - |
| EV005 | Russian gold exports face logistics disruption | - | supply | present | confirmed | Russian gold exports facing minor logistics delays | stable | low | bullish | minor | short | - | low | 2026-03-08 | 2022-03-01 | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-08 | supply,russia,sanctions | S001 | - | - | - | EV007 |
| EV006 | ETF liquidation pressure absent | - | supply | present | confirmed | ETF inflows net positive, no liquidation pressure | stable | medium | bullish | moderate | sustained | - | high | 2026-03-08 | - | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-08 | supply,etf,flows | S005 | - | - | - | EV016 |
| EV007 | Safe haven demand from Iran-US war | - | demand | present | confirmed | Iran-US war Day 10 safe haven demand peak | accelerating | high | bullish | major | sustained | - | high | 2026-03-08 | 2026-02-27 | 2026-04-15 | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-08 | demand,geopolitical,war,safe-haven | S006,S007,S008 | SF001,SF002,SF003,SF004,SF005,SF006,SF007 | - | - | - |
| EV008 | Rate cut expectations from labor market collapse | - | demand | present | confirmed | NFP -92K, rate cut expectations surge | accelerating | high | bullish | major | sustained | - | high | 2026-03-08 | 2026-03-06 | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-08 | demand,macro,fed,rates | S009 | - | - | - | - |
| EV009 | Inflation hedge demand from tariff-driven cost surge | - | demand | present | confirmed | ISM Prices 70.5, tariff-driven inflation surge | accelerating | high | bullish | moderate | sustained | - | high | 2026-03-08 | 2026-03-03 | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-08 | demand,inflation,tariffs,stagflation | S010 | - | - | - | - |
| EV010 | Central bank buying structural floor | - | demand | present | confirmed | Central bank buying 1,000+ tonnes/year structural floor | stable | high | bullish | major | structural | - | high | 2026-03-08 | 2022-03-01 | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-08 | demand,central-bank,de-dollarization | S002,S003 | - | - | - | EV002,EV018 |
| EV011 | Equity portfolio rotation into gold | - | demand | present | confirmed | VIX 29.49 driving equity-to-gold rotation | accelerating | medium | bullish | moderate | short | - | high | 2026-03-08 | 2026-03-03 | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-08 | demand,portfolio,risk-off | S005 | - | - | - | - |
| EV012 | USD weakening expectations | - | demand | present | confirmed | USD weakening on rate cut expectations | stable | medium | bullish | moderate | sustained | - | medium | 2026-03-08 | - | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-08 | demand,fx,dollar | S009 | - | - | - | EV008 |
| EV013 | Pezeshkian GCC de-escalation reduces acute risk premium | - | demand | present | confirmed | Pezeshkian GCC de-escalation statement | stable | low | bearish | minor | transient | - | low | 2026-03-08 | 2026-03-07 | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-08 | demand,geopolitical,de-escalation | S011 | - | SF003 | - | EV007 |
| EV014 | Strong ISM Services signals economic resilience | - | demand | present | confirmed | ISM Services 56.1 beat | stable | low | bearish | minor | short | - | medium | 2026-03-08 | 2026-03-05 | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-08 | demand,macro,services | S010 | - | - | - | - |
| EV015 | Physical jewelry demand crimped at $5,100+ | - | demand | present | confirmed | Jewelry demand down 15-20% YoY at $5,100+ | decelerating | medium | bearish | moderate | sustained | - | medium | 2026-03-08 | - | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-08 | demand,physical,jewelry | S004 | - | - | - | - |
| EV016 | Global gold ETF inflows (9 consecutive months) | - | demand | present | confirmed | +$5.3B ETF inflows in February, 9th consecutive month | accelerating | high | bullish | major | sustained | - | high | 2026-03-08 | 2025-06-01 | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-08 | demand,etf,institutional | S005 | - | - | - | EV006 |
| EV017 | COMEX net long positioning elevated but trimming | - | demand | present | confirmed | COMEX net long 642t, down 6% MoM | decelerating | medium | bearish | minor | transient | - | high | 2026-03-08 | - | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-08 | demand,positioning,futures | S012 | - | - | - | - |
| EV018 | PBOC persistent accumulation (16 months) | - | demand | present | confirmed | PBOC 74.22M oz gold reserves, 16th month buying | accelerating | high | bullish | major | structural | - | high | 2026-03-08 | 2024-11-01 | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-08 | demand,central-bank,china | S003 | - | - | - | EV002,EV010 |
| id | source | author | type | date | quote | audience | credibility | impact | references |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S001 | Reuters | - | news-report | 2026-03-08 | Strait of Hormuz blocked; 16 mb/d oil halted | public | high | Iran-US war disrupts Gulf shipping | EV001,EV005,EV007 |
| S002 | World Gold Council | - | research-report | 2026-03-05 | 95% of central banks surveyed intend to increase gold reserves in 2026 | institutional | high | Central bank structural buying confirmed | EV002,EV010 |
| S003 | PBOC/Bloomberg | - | official-data | 2026-02-28 | PBOC gold reserves 74.22M oz, +30k oz Feb | public | high | China continuing gold accumulation | EV018 |
| S004 | World Gold Council | - | research-report | 2026-02-28 | Global mine production ~3,600 tonnes; jewelry demand down 15-20% YoY | institutional | high | Supply-demand balance context | EV003,EV004,EV015 |
| S005 | SSGA/WGC | - | market-data | 2026-03-06 | GLD holdings 1,073.32t; global ETF +$5.3B Feb | institutional | high | ETF flow momentum | EV006,EV011,EV016 |
| S006 | White House | Trump | official-statement | 2026-03-07 | Complete destruction of new target categories | public | high | War escalation rhetoric | EV007 |
| S007 | IDF Spokesperson | - | official-statement | 2026-03-07 | 80-jet broad-scale strikes on Tehran; 230 bombs | public | high | Israel military escalation | EV007 |
| S008 | White House Press Secretary | - | official-statement | 2026-03-06 | 4-6 more weeks of military operations expected | public | high | War timeline expectation | EV007 |
| S009 | BLS | - | official-data | 2026-03-06 | NFP -92K vs +55K expected; unemployment 4.4% vs 4.1% | public | high | Labor market collapse drives rate cut expectations | EV008,EV012 |
| S010 | ISM | - | official-data | 2026-03-03 | Manufacturing Prices 70.5 vs 59.0; Services PMI 56.1 | public | high | Stagflation setup confirmed | EV009,EV014 |
| S011 | Iran Presidency | Pezeshkian | official-statement | 2026-03-07 | Halting GCC strikes and apologizing for damage | public | medium | Minor de-escalation signal | EV013 |
| S012 | CFTC COT | - | official-data | 2026-03-04 | COMEX gold managed money 378t net long, -4% MoM | institutional | high | Positioning trimming at highs | EV017 |
| id | subFactor | parent | type | valueEvidence | status | leadTime | startDate | projectedEnd | lastUpdated | sources | references |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF001 | Iran-US war is active with kinetic operations on Day 10 | EV007 | action | Multiple agencies confirm ongoing hostilities; Hormuz blocked; 16 mb/d halted | confirmed | - | 2026-02-27 | 2026-04-15 | 2026-03-08 | S001 | EV007 |
| SF002 | Israel conducted 80-jet broad-scale strikes on Tehran (230 bombs) | EV007 | action | IDF spokesperson confirmed Mar 7; underground missile factory targeted | confirmed | - | 2026-03-07 | - | 2026-03-08 | S007 | EV007 |
| SF003 | Trump threatens "complete destruction" of new target categories | EV007 | intention | Published on Truth Social Mar 7; eliminates near-term ceasefire pathway | confirmed | - | 2026-03-07 | - | 2026-03-08 | S006 | EV007 |
| SF004 | Trump demands unconditional surrender, no negotiated ceasefire | EV007 | intention | Trump Truth Social Mar 6; consistent with maximalist rhetoric | confirmed | - | 2026-03-06 | - | 2026-03-08 | S006 | EV007 |
| SF005 | White House projects 4-6 more weeks of military operations | EV007 | intention | Consistent messaging from Trump, Hegseth, Rubio; ~mid-April timeline | confirmed | 4-6 weeks | 2026-03-06 | 2026-04-15 | 2026-03-08 | S008 | EV007 |
| SF006 | No emergency oil release (IEA declined, SPR ruled out) | EV007 | action | IEA/Fatih Birol declined collective action; White House ruled out SPR sale | confirmed | - | 2026-03-05 | - | 2026-03-08 | S001 | EV007 |
| SF007 | Pezeshkian de-escalation toward GCC may reduce regional spread risk | EV007 | action | Iran presidential statement Mar 7 halting GCC strikes; but IRGC may override civilian leadership | partial | - | 2026-03-07 | - | 2026-03-08 | S011 | EV007 |