| PA001 | Base equity valuation | base-cost | +$26,200 | — | Pre-crisis earnings-based fair value reference (Jan 27 high vicinity). Nasdaq-100 forward P/E ~20x at trailing earnings, supported by AI/cloud capex cycle and passive inflows. | stable | high | - |
| PA002 | War-driven risk-off selling | risk-premium | -$681 | 25% | Iran-US war Day 10, Hormuz blocked (16 mb/d halted). No ceasefire path — unconditional surrender demanded. Institutional and systematic de-risking cascading. Dominant driver of selloff. | worsening | high | geopolitical/2026-03-08 |
| PA003 | Oil-inflation-Fed tightening path | fundamental-premium | -$545 | 20% | Hormuz disruption + no IEA/SPR relief → sustained oil spike → inflation re-acceleration → Fed cannot cut, may hike → valuation compression for high-duration growth stocks. | worsening | high | policy/2026-03-08 |
| PA004 | Tech valuation compression | liquidity-discount | -$409 | 15% | Nasdaq ~50% Mag 7 at premium multiples. Rising discount rates and risk-off rotation hit tech disproportionately. 2022 precedent (NAS100 -33%) shows magnitude potential. | worsening | high | - |
| PA005 | Energy cost pass-through to earnings | fundamental-premium | -$327 | 12% | Oil at $93+ raises input costs, compresses margins, triggers earnings downgrades. Tech data center energy costs growing. Analyst revisions lag oil moves by 2-4 weeks — not fully priced. | worsening | medium | - |
| PA006 | Margin call / forced liquidation | liquidity-discount | -$273 | 10% | 8.3% decline + 570pt weekend gap creating forced selling from leveraged positions. Mechanical amplifier — transient but acute in immediate 1-2 weeks. | active | high | - |
| PA007 | Passive flow inertia | demand-pull | +$136 | 5% | Steady passive inflows (~$15-20B/month into US equities). Structural floor but dwarfed by active de-risking. Prevents total collapse. | stable | high | - |
| PA008 | GCC diplomacy de-escalation | risk-premium | +$136 | 5% | Iran's GCC ceasefire + apology suggests geographic containment. Lone bullish signal. Limited — core US-Iran conflict continues. | uncertain | low | geopolitical/2026-03-08 |
| PA009 | Hedge fund de-grossing | speculative-premium | -$109 | 4% | Multi-strat and L/S funds reducing gross exposure in vol spikes. Crowded Mag 7 longs most vulnerable. Transient flow effect. | active | medium | - |
| PA010 | Buyback blackout approaching | liquidity-discount | -$55 | 2% | Companies entering quiet periods before Q1 earnings (~Mar 15+). Removes structural demand cushion at a bad time. | seasonal | high | - |
| PA011 | Options dealer negative gamma | technical-premium | -$27 | 1% | Short-term mechanical amplifier. Dealer positioning creates selling on weakness. Effect resets at expiration. | active | medium | - |
| PA012 | Dip-buying sentiment | demand-pull | +$14 | 0.5% | Retail buy-the-dip exists but overwhelmed by institutional selling in war environment. Not a meaningful driver. | weakening | low | - |
| PA013 | Trump DFC reinsurance program | risk-premium | +$14 | 0.5% | $20B program is symbolic. No material impact on equity valuations relative to war-driven headwinds. | stable | low | policy/2026-03-08 |