This path assumes the Iran-US conflict remains contained or de-escalates, similar to the August 2024 carry trade unwind pattern. The Mar 9 low (23,973) represents capitulation for this move. Fed signals concern over growth (not just inflation), providing implicit put. Short covering from elevated bearish positioning drives rapid recovery. The pattern historically shows 50-100% retracement of decline within 2-4 weeks if shock is transient.
PATH002
Field
Value
Archetype
Risk-Off Cascade (Phase 4b)
Probability
25%
Current Price
24,607
Target
22,500 (bear flag measured move zone)
Invalidation
25,200 (above Mar 10 swing high)
Timeline
4-6 weeks
Direction
bearish
Roadmap
step
level
action
signal
est_timing
1
24,000
Break below psychological support
War escalation or hot CPI print
Mar 13-18
2
23,500
Channel measured move target
Recession confirmation (labor data)
Mar 18-25
3
22,500
Bear flag measured move
VIX spike above 35, capitulation selling
Mar 25 - Apr 7
Rationale
This path materializes if the Iran-US war escalates (Strait of Hormuz disruption, oil >$120) AND labor market deterioration confirms recession trajectory. The fundamental damage proves too severe for policy response alone. Mar 9 low (23,973) breaks on renewed selling. Distribution accelerates as institutional selling overwhelms dip buying. Bear flag measured move (22,000-22,500) fulfilled.
PATH003
Field
Value
Archetype
Tech Correction Selloff (Phase 3)
Probability
35%
Current Price
24,607
Target
23,500 (channel measured move, Nov 2025 support)
Invalidation
25,500 (above upper channel bound)
Timeline
2-4 weeks
Direction
bearish
Roadmap
step
level
action
signal
est_timing
1
24,000
Test and break psychological support
Failed rally at 25,000, heavy volume decline
Mar 13-20
2
23,973
Below Mar 9 intraday low
New selling wave, stops triggered
Mar 17-22
3
23,500
Channel target / major support zone
Distribution exhaustion, potential stabilization
Mar 22 - Apr 5
Rationale
This is the base case — continuation of the existing distribution pattern within the descending channel. No dramatic escalation or de-escalation; war persists at current intensity. Labor market concerns remain but don't trigger full recession. The distribution phase (Phase 3) continues with grinding lower prices, failed rallies, and eventual test of 23,500 support. This aligns with the 3-month correction duration expected from monthly market structure classification.
PATH004
Field
Value
Archetype
Tech Correction Selloff (Phase 4b)
Probability
10%
Current Price
24,607
Target
22,000 (bear flag measured move, major psychological)
Invalidation
24,000 must break first for this path to activate
Timeline
3-6 weeks
Direction
bearish
Roadmap
step
level
action
signal
est_timing
1
24,000
Break below with momentum
Multiple negative catalysts (war + labor + CPI)
Mar 13-18
2
23,500
Brief consolidation, then break
Earnings estimate cuts accelerate
Mar 18-25
3
22,000-22,500
Bear flag target, major support
Earnings recession confirmed, VIX >35
Mar 25 - Apr 20
Rationale
The tail-risk scenario. Correction morphs into bear market as fundamentals deteriorate. War extends beyond 6 weeks with escalating economic damage. Labor market continues to weaken (March NFP negative). CPI prints hot, forcing Fed to maintain hawkish stance despite growth concerns. Earnings estimates for Q1 cut materially (>10% NAS100 EPS revision). The 10-15% correction becomes 20-25% bear market. Requires multiple negative surprises to materialize.