| id | name | parent | category | temporalState | realizationStatus | value | trend | significance | direction | magnitude | duration | probability | confidence | date | startDate | projectedEnd | leadTime | leadTimeBasis | sourceType | lastUpdated | topics | sources | evidenceFor | evidenceAgainst | leadTimeEvidence | references |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV001 | South Africa mine production challenges | - | supply | present | confirmed | SA mine output -4% YoY in 2025, flat at 5.55Moz for 2026 | stable | high | bullish | major | structural | - | high | 2026-03-13 | 2020-01-01 | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | supply,mining,south-africa,platinum | S001 | SF001,SF002,SF003,SF004 | - | - | EV003,EV004 |
| EV002 | Russia Nornickel output declining | - | supply | present | confirmed | ~10% of global PGM supply with ongoing decline | declining | medium | bullish | moderate | sustained | - | high | 2026-03-13 | 2022-01-01 | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | supply,mining,russia,sanctions | S002 | SF005,SF006,SF007 | - | - | EV001 |
| EV003 | Fourth consecutive deficit year (240koz) | - | supply | present | confirmed | 240koz deficit forecast 2026, 3Moz cumulative since 2023 | stable | high | bullish | major | structural | - | high | 2026-03-13 | 2023-01-01 | 2026-12-31 | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | supply-demand,deficit,inventory | S003 | SF008,SF009,SF010,SF011,SF012 | - | - | EV004 |
| EV004 | Above-ground stocks at 4-month cover | EV003 | supply | present | confirmed | 2,613koz above-ground stocks (~4.2 months demand) | declining | high | bullish | major | sustained | - | high | 2026-03-13 | 2023-01-01 | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | inventory,supply,stocks | S003 | SF013,SF014 | - | - | EV003 |
| EV005 | Mine supply flat globally | - | supply | present | confirmed | 5,553koz mine supply forecast (+2koz vs 2025) | stable | low | neutral | minor | short | - | medium | 2026-03-13 | 2026-01-01 | 2026-12-31 | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | supply,mining,forecast | S003 | - | - | - | EV001 |
| EV006 | Recycling supply constrained by prices | - | supply | present | confirmed | Secondary supply flat despite high prices | stable | low | bullish | minor | short | - | medium | 2026-03-13 | - | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | supply,recycling | S003 | - | - | - | - |
| EV007 | China strategic critical mineral designation | - | demand | present | confirmed | China classified platinum as strategic critical mineral Feb 2026 | stable | high | bullish | major | structural | - | high | 2026-02-15 | 2026-02-15 | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | policy,china,strategic,demand | S004 | SF015,SF016,SF017 | - | - | EV008,EV009 |
| EV008 | Safe-haven rotation from gold | - | demand | present | confirmed | Platinum +140% since early 2024, platinum/gold ratio 0.42 vs historical 1.0+ | increasing | high | bullish | major | sustained | - | high | 2026-03-13 | 2024-01-01 | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | investment,gold,rotation,safe-haven | S005,S006 | SF018,SF019,SF020 | - | - | EV007,EV009 |
| EV009 | Investment demand via ETFs and bars | EV008 | demand | present | confirmed | Sustained ETF and bar demand, "extremely robust" per WPIC | increasing | high | bullish | moderate | sustained | - | high | 2026-03-13 | 2025-01-01 | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | investment,etf,physical | S003 | SF020 | - | - | EV008 |
| EV010 | Iran conflict dampening industrial growth outlook | - | demand | present | confirmed | Platinum -7.5% on economic growth fears vs gold +25% YoY | decreasing | medium | bearish | moderate | short | - | high | 2026-03-13 | 2026-02-28 | 2026-04-15 | 2-4 weeks | Trump signals war ending soon | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | geopolitical,iran,industrial-demand,risk-off | S007 | SF021,SF022 | - | US signals war will end in 2-4 weeks | EV011,EV012 |
| EV011 | US labor market weakness | - | demand | present | confirmed | NFP -92K (largest since pandemic), unemployment 4.4% | declining | medium | bearish | moderate | short | - | high | 2026-03-07 | 2026-02-01 | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | economic,us,labor,auto-demand | S008 | SF023,SF024 | - | - | EV010,EV012 |
| EV012 | China manufacturing contraction | - | demand | present | confirmed | China PMI 49.0, second consecutive contraction | declining | medium | bearish | moderate | short | - | high | 2026-03-01 | 2026-01-01 | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | economic,china,manufacturing,auto-demand | S009 | SF025 | - | - | EV010,EV011 |
| EV013 | Auto catalyst demand stable to growing | - | demand | present | confirmed | Emissions standards tightening, hybrid vehicle growth increases PGM loading | increasing | medium | bullish | moderate | sustained | - | medium | 2026-03-13 | - | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | auto,emissions,catalysts,demand | S010 | - | - | - | EV014 |
| EV014 | Hydrogen economy potential | - | demand | present | confirmed | Fuel cell catalyst demand nascent, China/Japan hydrogen investment | increasing | low | bullish | minor | structural | - | low | 2026-03-13 | - | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | hydrogen,fuel-cell,long-term,demand | S010 | - | - | - | EV013 |
| id | source | author | type | date | quote | audience | credibility | impact | references |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S001 | WPIC Platinum Quarterly Q3 2025 | World Platinum Investment Council | industry-report | 2025-11-15 | South African mine production declined 4% YoY in 2025 | public | high | Primary supply data source for platinum market | EV001,EV002 |
| S002 | Nornickel Production Report | Nornickel Investor Relations | company-disclosure | 2025-10-01 | Western equipment withdrawal limiting maintenance capabilities | public | high | Confirms Russia supply constraint | EV002 |
| S003 | WPIC Platinum Outlook March 2026 | World Platinum Investment Council | industry-report | 2026-03-10 | Fourth consecutive deficit year with 240koz shortfall expected; above-ground stocks at 2,613koz | public | high | Definitive market balance data | EV003,EV004,EV005,EV006,EV009 |
| S004 | China Ministry of Natural Resources | Chinese Government | government-statement | 2026-02-15 | Platinum classified as strategic critical mineral | public | high | Creates structural demand floor for platinum | EV007 |
| S005 | Fortune/StreetWise Reports | Multiple analysts | news-report | 2026-03-10 | Safe-haven rotation from gold to platinum accelerating | public | medium | Confirms investment flow narrative | EV008 |
| S006 | Oanda Price Data | Oanda | market-data | 2026-03-13 | Platinum at $2,128, up 140% since early 2024; gold at $5,110 | public | high | Price confirmation | EV008 |
| S007 | INN/CNBC Market Coverage | Multiple sources | news-report | 2026-03-12 | Platinum -7.5% on economic growth fears vs gold +25% YoY; industrial demand concern overrides safe-haven | public | medium | Documents Iran conflict impact on platinum | EV010 |
| S008 | BLS Employment Situation Report | Bureau of Labor Statistics | government-statement | 2026-03-07 | NFP -92K in February, largest monthly loss since pandemic; unemployment 4.4% | public | high | US auto demand risk signal | EV011 |
| S009 | NBS China PMI Release | National Bureau of Statistics China | government-statement | 2026-03-01 | PMI 49.0, second consecutive contraction | public | high | China auto demand risk signal | EV012 |
| S010 | Industry Context/WPIC | Various | industry-report | 2026-03-13 | Tightening emissions standards; hydrogen economy potential | public | medium | Long-term demand drivers | EV013,EV014 |
| id | subFactor | parent | type | valueEvidence | status | leadTime | startDate | projectedEnd | lastUpdated | sources | references |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF001 | SA mines are deep (3km+) and aging | EV001 | constraint | Industry reports confirm Bushveld Complex mines among deepest in world; Rustenburg operations >100 years old | confirmed | - | - | - | 2026-03-13 | S001 | EV001 |
| SF002 | Labor costs rising faster than productivity | EV001 | constraint | High labor intensity documented; wage inflation 5-7% annually; productivity flat | confirmed | - | - | - | 2026-03-13 | S001 | EV001 |
| SF003 | 2025 mine supply fell 4% YoY | EV001 | action | WPIC confirmed -4% decline in 2025 | confirmed | - | - | - | 2026-03-13 | S001 | EV001 |
| SF004 | 2026 supply forecast flat at 5.55Moz | EV001 | deployment | WPIC forecast; depends on no further disruptions; SA +2% offset by other regions | partial | - | - | - | 2026-03-13 | S003 | EV001 |
| SF005 | Western equipment withdrawal ongoing | EV002 | action | Sanctions limiting technology access since 2022; confirmed by multiple sources | confirmed | - | 2022-01-01 | - | 2026-03-13 | S002 | EV002 |
| SF006 | Grade decline at mature mines | EV002 | constraint | Norilsk Nickel deposits aging; ore grades declining ~2-3% annually | confirmed | - | - | - | 2026-03-13 | S002 | EV002 |
| SF007 | ~10% of global PGM supply | EV002 | capability | Nornickel accounts for ~10% of world platinum/palladium | confirmed | - | - | - | 2026-03-13 | S003 | EV002 |
| SF008 | 2023 deficit occurred | - | action | WPIC confirmed 2023 deficit | confirmed | - | 2023-01-01 | 2023-12-31 | 2026-03-13 | S003 | - |
| SF009 | 2024 deficit occurred | - | action | WPIC confirmed 2024 deficit | confirmed | - | 2024-01-01 | 2024-12-31 | 2026-03-13 | S003 | - |
| SF010 | 2025 deficit occurred | - | action | WPIC confirmed 2025 deficit | confirmed | - | 2025-01-01 | 2025-12-31 | 2026-03-13 | S003 | - |
| SF011 | 2026 deficit forecast at 240koz | - | deployment | WPIC forecast; subject to demand variability | partial | - | 2026-01-01 | 2026-12-31 | 2026-03-13 | S003 | - |
| SF012 | Cumulative 3Moz deficit since 2023 | - | action | Math checks: 3Moz cumulative draw over 3 years | confirmed | - | 2023-01-01 | - | 2026-03-13 | S003 | - |
| SF013 | Current stocks at 2,613koz | EV004 | action | WPIC confirmed inventory level | confirmed | - | - | - | 2026-03-13 | S003 | EV004 |
| SF014 | Annual demand ~7.4Moz implies 4.2 months cover | EV004 | capability | 2,613 / (7,400/12) = 4.2 months | confirmed | - | - | - | 2026-03-13 | S003 | EV004 |
| SF015 | China officially classified platinum | EV007 | action | Formal policy announcement February 2026 | confirmed | - | 2026-02-15 | - | 2026-03-13 | S004 | EV007 |
| SF016 | Improves project finance economics | EV007 | intention | Logical implication; specific financing actions not yet confirmed | partial | - | - | - | 2026-03-13 | S004 | EV007 |
| SF017 | State stockpiling likely to increase | EV007 | intention | Inferred from strategic designation; specific purchase orders not confirmed | partial | - | - | - | 2026-03-13 | S004 | EV007 |
| SF018 | Platinum up ~140% since early 2024 | EV008 | action | Price appreciation from ~$955 to ~$2,128 confirmed | confirmed | - | 2024-01-01 | - | 2026-03-13 | S005,S006 | EV008 |
| SF019 | Gold at $5,100+ makes platinum relatively attractive | EV008 | capability | Gold spot ~$5,110; platinum at ~$2,128 = platinum/gold ratio 0.42 vs historical 1.0+ | confirmed | - | - | - | 2026-03-13 | S006 | EV008 |
| SF020 | WPIC notes "extremely robust" investment demand | EV008 | action | Direct WPIC commentary March 2026 | confirmed | - | - | - | 2026-03-13 | S003 | EV008 |
| SF021 | Platinum -7.5% on growth fears | - | action | Price action confirmed; underperformance vs gold | confirmed | - | 2026-02-28 | - | 2026-03-13 | S007 | - |
| SF022 | Gold +25% YoY vs platinum muted | - | action | Relative performance divergence during risk-off | confirmed | - | - | - | 2026-03-13 | S007 | - |
| SF023 | NFP -92K in February | EV011 | action | BLS confirmed; largest monthly loss since pandemic | confirmed | - | 2026-02-01 | - | 2026-03-13 | S008 | EV011 |
| SF024 | Unemployment jumped to 4.4% | EV011 | action | BLS confirmed; up 0.3pp | confirmed | - | - | - | 2026-03-13 | S008 | EV011 |
| SF025 | PMI 49.0 in February | EV012 | action | NBS confirmed; second consecutive contraction | confirmed | - | 2026-01-01 | - | 2026-03-13 | S009 | EV012 |