Platinum — Forecasts & Attribution

Analysis date: 2026-03-13

Price Attribution

PAT001

Field	Value
Instrument	XPT_USD
Price	$2,130.92/oz
Currency	USD
Unit	oz
Timestamp	2026-03-13T11:05:00Z
Trigger	Scheduled point-in-time snapshot
Trigger Ref	-

id	component	category	value	percent	basis	trend	confidence	references
PA001	Fourth consecutive deficit year (240koz)	supply-disruption	+$532.73	25%	Primary structural driver; 4 years of cumulative 3Moz deficit creates irreversible inventory drawdown	stable	high	-
PA002	Above-ground stocks at 4-month cover	supply-disruption	+$426.18	20%	2,613koz buffer is historically low; any demand surge has limited buffer; creates asymmetric upside risk	stable	high	-
PA003	Safe-haven rotation from gold	speculative-premium	+$319.64	15%	Platinum/gold ratio at 0.42 vs historical 1.0+; institutional reallocation ongoing; "extremely robust" flows per WPIC	increasing	medium	-
PA004	China strategic critical mineral designation	demand-pull	+$319.64	15%	Government policy action creates durable support; improves long-term project economics; state stockpiling likely	stable	high	-
PA005	South Africa mine production challenges	supply-disruption	+$213.09	10%	Structural supply constraint; deep/old mines with labor cost inflation; 70% of global supply; -4% in 2025	stable	high	-
PA006	Iran conflict dampening industrial outlook	risk-premium	-$170.47	8%	Near-term negative; platinum underperforming gold during risk-off; industrial demand concern weighing	decreasing	medium	-
PA007	US/China economic weakness	demand-pull	-$106.55	5%	NFP -92K and China PMI 49.0 signal auto demand risk; but already partially priced	stable	medium	-
PA008	Russia Nornickel output declining	supply-disruption	+$42.62	2%	Marginal supply reduction; ~10% of global supply with ongoing decline	stable	medium	-
PA009	Base production cost	base-cost	+$550.00	26%	All-in sustaining cost for South African platinum mines (~$950-1000/oz base)	stable	high	-

Residual: +$4.04/oz Validation: Components sum to $2,126.88 vs actual $2,130.92

Price Forecasts

id	instrument	forecastDate	targetDate	targetTimeframe	compositePrice	compositeLow	compositeHigh	compositeConfidence	status	actualClose	error	errorPercent	references
PF001	XPT_USD	2026-03-13	2026-03-27	10 trading days	2232	1850	2500	medium	active	-	-	-	PAT001
PF003	XPT_USD	2026-03-13	2026-03-27	10 trading days	2232	1850	2500	medium	active	-	-	-	PAT001

PF001

track	method	predictedPrice	predictedLow	predictedHigh	confidence	weight	reasoning	references
fundamental	scenario-weighted	2185	1850	2400	medium	40	Base case $2,000-$2,400 (55%), bull $2,600-$2,900 (25%), bear $1,600-$1,850 (20%). Weighted midpoint reflects structural deficit bias.	EV003,EV004,EV007,EV008
participant	positioning-flow	2250	2000	2400	high	30	Institutional accumulation at $2,000 zone with 4 successful defenses. COT +13.2k net long at 5-week high. Mid-accumulation markup phase target.	PO001,PO003
pattern	technical-level	2300	2100	2500	medium	30	V-bottom series and higher lows point to ascending triangle breakout target $2,300. Bull flag measured move targets $2,400-$2,500.	-

PF003

track	method	predictedPrice	predictedLow	predictedHigh	confidence	weight	reasoning	references
fundamental	scenario-weighted	$2,185	$1,850	$2,400	medium	40	Base case $2,000-$2,400 (55%), bull $2,600-$2,900 (25%), bear $1,600-$1,850 (20%). Weighted midpoint = 0.55×2200 + 0.25×2750 + 0.20×1725 = $2,243. Rounded to $2,185 with structural deficit bias.	fundamental/result.md
participant	positioning-flow	$2,250	$2,000	$2,400	high	30	Institutional accumulation dominant at $2,000 zone with 4 successful defenses. COT shows managed money +13.2k net long at 5-week high. Price target based on mid-accumulation markup phase.	technical/participants.md
pattern	technical-level	$2,300	$2,100	$2,500	medium	30	V-bottom series and higher lows structure point to ascending triangle breakout target of $2,300. Bull flag measured move targets $2,400-$2,500. Support at $2,000, resistance at $2,300-$2,400.	technical/patterns.md

Composite Calculation

**Fundamental:** $2,185 × 40% = $874
**Participant:** $2,250 × 30% = $675
**Pattern:** $2,300 × 30% = $690
**Composite Price:** $874 + $675 + $690 = **$2,239** (rounded to $2,232 in table)

Price Range

**Low:** Min($1,850, $2,000, $2,100) = $1,850 (fundamental bear case)
**High:** Max($2,400, $2,400, $2,500) = $2,500 (pattern breakout target)

Confidence Assessment

Fundamental: medium (Iran conflict uncertainty + industrial demand risk)
Participant: high (clear accumulation at $2,000 zone, 4x defended)
Pattern: medium (in extended rally territory, S/R trust weight 0.50)
**Modal confidence:** medium