| entity | type | weight | basis | confidence | lastUpdated | references |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV003 | event | 25 | Primary structural driver; 4 years of cumulative 3Moz deficit is the foundation of bullish thesis; verified by WPIC data across multiple years; creates irreversible inventory drawdown | high | 2026-03-13 | EV003,SF008,SF009,SF010,SF011,SF012 |
| EV004 | event | 20 | Direct consequence of deficits; 2,613koz buffer is historically low; any demand surge has limited buffer; creates asymmetric upside risk; well-documented by WPIC | high | 2026-03-13 | EV004,SF013,SF014 |
| EV008 | event | 15 | Key demand driver for recent 140% rally; platinum/gold ratio at 0.42 vs historical 1.0+ creates value narrative; institutional reallocation ongoing; WPIC confirms "extremely robust" investment flows | high | 2026-03-13 | EV008,SF018,SF019,SF020 |
| EV007 | event | 15 | Structural demand floor established; government policy action creates durable support; improves long-term project economics; state stockpiling likely but timing uncertain | high | 2026-03-13 | EV007,SF015,SF016,SF017 |
| EV001 | event | 10 | Structural supply constraint; deep/old mines with labor cost inflation; 70% of global supply; verified -4% decline in 2025; limited ability to ramp production | high | 2026-03-13 | EV001,SF001,SF002,SF003,SF004 |
| EV010 | event | 8 | Near-term negative; platinum underperforming gold during risk-off; industrial demand concern weighing; but conflict expected to end in 2-4 weeks per US signals | medium | 2026-03-13 | EV010,SF021,SF022 |
| - | event | 5 | NFP -92K and China PMI 49.0 signal auto demand risk; but already partially priced; moderate weight as conditions expected to stabilize | - | 2026-03-13 | - |
| EV002 | event | 2 | Marginal supply reduction; ~10% of global supply with ongoing decline; already reflected in WPIC supply forecasts; incremental rather than surprise impact | high | 2026-03-13 | EV002,SF005,SF006,SF007 |
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Overall Bias | bullish |
| Confidence | medium |
| Time Horizon | 4-8 weeks |
| Key Driver | EV003: Fourth consecutive deficit year with cumulative 3Moz inventory drawdown; EV004: Above-ground stocks at only 4 months cover creating asymmetric upside risk |
| Key Risk | EV010: Iran conflict dampening industrial outlook; EV011/EV012: US/China economic weakness threatening 70% industrial demand share |
| rank | id | name | type | why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | EV003 | Fourth consecutive deficit year (240koz) | unified-event | 25% influence weight. Primary structural driver; 4 years of cumulative 3Moz deficit is the foundation of bullish thesis; verified by WPIC data across multiple years; creates irreversible inventory drawdown |
| 2 | EV004 | Above-ground stocks at 4-month cover | unified-event | 20% influence weight. Direct consequence of deficits; 2,613koz buffer is historically low; any demand surge has limited buffer; creates asymmetric upside risk; well-documented by WPIC |
| 3 | EV008 | Safe-haven rotation from gold | unified-event | 15% influence weight. Key demand driver for recent 140% rally; platinum/gold ratio at 0.42 vs historical 1.0+ creates value narrative; institutional reallocation ongoing; WPIC confirms "extremely robust" investment flows |
| 4 | EV007 | China strategic critical mineral designation | unified-event | 15% influence weight. Structural demand floor established; government policy action creates durable support; improves long-term project economics; state stockpiling likely but timing uncertain |
| 5 | EV001 | South Africa mine production challenges | unified-event | 10% influence weight. Structural supply constraint; deep/old mines with labor cost inflation; 70% of global supply; verified -4% decline in 2025; limited ability to ramp production |
| scenario | probability | priceTarget | keyAssumption | keyEvents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base: Range-bound with upward drift | 55% | $2,000-$2,400 | Iran conflict ends in 2-4 weeks; industrial demand stabilizes; investment rotation continues at moderate pace | EV003,EV004,EV008,EV007 |
| Bull: Supply squeeze drives new highs | 25% | $2,600-$2,900 | Inventory drawdown accelerates; China strategic stockpiling intensifies; safe-haven demand re-accelerates | EV003,EV004,EV008,EV001 |
| Bear: Industrial demand collapse | 20% | $1,600-$1,850 | US recession deepens; China PMI stays sub-49; auto production cuts accelerate | EV010,EV011,EV012 |
| id | risk | trigger | wouldChangeBiasTo | monitoringSignal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R001 | Global recession confirmation | US GDP negative + China PMI sub-48 for 2+ months | bearish | ISM Manufacturing sub-45; auto production cuts announced; VIX sustained above 35 |
| R002 | Iran conflict escalation/extension | War extends beyond April; Hormuz closure prolonged | neutral (mixed impact) | Oil above $130; gold above $5,500; risk-off intensifies |
| R003 | South Africa supply shock | Major labor strike or mine closure | more bullish | Anglo/Implats operational announcements; SA mining news |
| R004 | Investment demand reversal | Gold/platinum ratio normalizes; ETF outflows begin | neutral | WPIC monthly positioning data; gold outperformance accelerating |
| R005 | China stockpiling confirmation | Large state purchases announced | more bullish | WPIC China demand data; import statistics spike |
| priority | id | item | checkFrequency | nextCheck | triggerCondition |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MP001 | WPIC quarterly reports | monthly | 2026-04-01 | Deficit estimate revision; stock levels update |
| 2 | MP002 | US labor data (NFP, unemployment) | monthly | 2026-04-04 | Second consecutive negative NFP print; unemployment above 4.6% |
| 3 | MP003 | China PMI releases | monthly | 2026-04-01 | PMI below 48 for 2+ months |
| 4 | MP004 | Iran conflict status | daily | 2026-03-14 | War end announcement; Hormuz reopening |
| 5 | MP005 | Gold/platinum ratio | weekly | 2026-03-20 | Ratio move below 0.38 or above 0.50 |
| 6 | MP006 | South Africa mine operations | weekly | 2026-03-20 | Labor action; production guidance changes |
| 7 | MP007 | Investment flows (ETF holdings, COT positioning) | weekly | 2026-03-17 | Managed money net long position changes >20% |