| id | name | parent | category | temporalState | realizationStatus | value | trend | significance | direction | magnitude | duration | probability | confidence | date | startDate | projectedEnd | leadTime | leadTimeBasis | sourceType | lastUpdated | topics | sources | evidenceFor | evidenceAgainst | leadTimeEvidence | references |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV001 | Oil price shock via Hormuz blockade — cost input surge | - | supply | present | confirmed | Brent ~$101/bbl; Hormuz blocked with <10% flows; 16+ mb/d halted | worsening | high | bearish | major | sustained | - | high | 2026-03-12 | 2026-02-27 | 2026-03-26 | 2-4 weeks | Trump/Pentagon war duration statements | llm-search | 2026-03-12 | oil,war,iran,hormuz,supply-disruption,equities | S001,S002,S003 | SF001,SF002,SF003,SF004,SF005 | SF006,SF007 | SF007 | EV010 |
| EV002 | ISM Manufacturing Prices surge to 70.5 — tariff-driven cost inflation | - | supply | present | confirmed | ISM Mfg Prices 70.5 vs 59.0 expected (+11.5 pts surprise) | accelerating | high | bearish | major | sustained | - | high | 2026-03-03 | 2026-03-03 | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-12 | inflation,tariffs,manufacturing,costs | S004 | SF008,SF009,SF010 | - | - | EV010 |
| EV003 | DOGE federal layoffs & government spending contraction | - | supply | present | confirmed | DOGE layoffs driving federal job cuts; structural reduction | worsening | high | bearish | moderate | sustained | - | high | 2026-03-06 | 2026-01-15 | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-12 | employment,government,doge,fiscal | S005 | SF015 | - | - | EV008 |
| EV004 | Earnings growth deceleration risk from GDP slowdown | - | supply | present | confirmed | Q4 GDP 1.4% vs 4.4% Q3; 3pp deceleration | worsening | medium | bearish | moderate | sustained | - | high | 2026-02-20 | 2025-10-01 | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-12 | gdp,growth,deceleration,earnings | S006 | SF018,SF019 | - | - | EV009 |
| EV005 | Extreme valuation — CAPE 40.2 (97th+ percentile) | - | supply | present | confirmed | CAPE 40.2, 97th+ percentile since 1957 | stable | high | bearish | major | structural | - | high | 2026-01-31 | 2024-09-01 | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-12 | valuation,cape,risk,overvaluation | S007 | SF011,SF012,SF013 | - | - | - |
| EV006 | VIX elevated ~30+ — tightening risk conditions | - | supply | present | confirmed | VIX ~30+, 90th percentile | elevated | medium | bearish | moderate | short | - | high | 2026-03-12 | 2026-03-01 | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-12 | volatility,vix,risk,hedging | S008 | SF025 | - | - | EV013 |
| EV007 | 90-day tariff suspension — temporary cost relief | - | supply | present | confirmed | 90-day tariff suspension; fading from market impact | fading | low | bullish | minor | transient | - | medium | 2026-02-15 | 2026-02-15 | 2026-05-15 | ~2 months remaining | Suspension announcement date + 90 days | llm-search | 2026-03-12 | tariffs,trade,policy | S009 | - | SF009 | - | - |
| EV008 | Labor market deterioration — NFP -92K, unemployment 4.4% | - | demand | present | confirmed | NFP -92K (vs +55K exp); UE 4.4% (vs 4.1%); prior 2 months revised down 69K | worsening | high | bearish | major | sustained | - | high | 2026-03-06 | 2026-02-01 | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-12 | employment,nfp,labor,recession | S005 | SF014,SF015,SF016,SF017 | - | - | EV003,EV010 |
| EV009 | GDP sharp deceleration — 1.4% Q4 vs 4.4% Q3 | - | demand | present | confirmed | Q4 GDP 1.4% annualized; PCE prices +2.9% | worsening | high | bearish | major | sustained | - | high | 2026-02-20 | 2025-10-01 | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-12 | gdp,growth,stagflation | S006 | SF018,SF019 | - | - | EV010 |
| EV010 | Stagflation risk — inflation sticky + growth weakening | - | demand | present | confirmed | Stagflation: CPI 2.4% + ISM Prices 70.5 (inflation) vs GDP 1.4% + NFP -92K (stagnation) | worsening | high | bearish | major | sustained | - | high | 2026-03-12 | 2026-02-01 | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-12 | stagflation,inflation,growth,fed | S004,S005,S006,S010 | SF020,SF021,SF022 | - | - | EV001,EV002,EV008,EV009 |
| EV011 | Fed on hold at 3.50-3.75% — no imminent easing | - | demand | present | confirmed | Fed funds 3.50-3.75%; on hold; CPI in-line keeps March unchanged | stable | medium | bearish | moderate | short | - | high | 2026-01-28 | 2026-01-28 | 2026-03-19 | 7 days to next FOMC | FOMC calendar | llm-search | 2026-03-12 | fed,rates,monetary-policy | S011 | SF022 | - | - | EV010 |
| EV012 | ISM Services strong at 56.1 — services resilience | - | demand | present | confirmed | ISM Services 56.1 (vs 53.5 exp); strong expansion | improving | medium | bullish | moderate | short | - | high | 2026-03-05 | 2026-03-05 | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-12 | services,ism,expansion,resilience | S004 | - | SF021 | - | - |
| EV013 | Institutional risk appetite collapsing — JPMorgan/Yardeni warnings | - | demand | present | confirmed | JPMorgan tactically bearish (10% correction risk); Yardeni 35% meltdown odds | worsening | high | bearish | moderate | short | - | high | 2026-03-11 | 2026-03-09 | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-12 | positioning,institutional,sellside,risk | S012,S013 | SF023,SF024,SF025 | - | - | EV006 |
| EV014 | War end timeline — Trump says "soon" (2-4 weeks) | - | demand | future | registered | War end in 2-4 weeks; Trump says 'practically nothing left' | improving | medium | bullish | moderate | transient | 40% | low | 2026-03-11 | - | 2026-03-26 | 2-4 weeks | Trump/Hegseth/Rubio statements | llm-search | 2026-03-12 | war,iran,ceasefire,diplomacy | S014 | SF007 | SF001 | SF007 | EV001 |
| EV015 | IEA 400M barrel reserve release — indirect equity support | - | demand | present | confirmed | IEA 400M bbl release; largest ever; US 172M from SPR | fading | low | bullish | minor | transient | - | high | 2026-03-11 | 2026-03-11 | 2026-05-11 | ~60 days of coverage | 400M bbl / ~6.7 mb/d deficit | llm-search | 2026-03-12 | oil,reserves,iea,spr | S015 | SF006 | SF001 | - | EV001 |
| id | source | author | type | date | quote | audience | credibility | impact | references |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S001 | NBC News / CBS News | - | news-report | 2026-03-11 | 5,500+ targets hit in Iran; Trump says 'practically nothing left' to target; Hegseth calls it 'most intense day' of strikes | public | high | Confirms escalation intensity; Hormuz remains blocked despite massive strikes | EV001 |
| S002 | Al Jazeera | - | news-report | 2026-03-11 | IRGC vows 'not a litre of oil' passes through Hormuz; Iran mining strait; 3+ ships attacked | public | high | Iran maintaining Hormuz blockade despite US strikes; structural supply disruption persists | EV001 |
| S003 | Fortune / Argus Media | - | news-report | 2026-03-11 | Iraq production collapsed from 4.42 mb/d to 1.2-1.5 mb/d; storage full; exports near-zero | public | high | Collateral damage from Hormuz closure affecting Gulf producers beyond Iran | EV001 |
| S004 | ISM (Institute for Supply Management) | - | official-release | 2026-03-03 | ISM Manufacturing Prices paid 70.5 vs 59.0 expected; +11.5 point surge; highest since 2022 | public | high | Tariff-driven cost inflation confirmed; margins to compress in Q1-Q2 earnings | EV002 |
| S005 | BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) | - | official-release | 2026-03-06 | Non-Farm Payrolls -92K vs +55K expected; unemployment 4.4% vs 4.1%; prior 2 months revised down 69K | public | high | Largest monthly job loss since pandemic; regime shift in labor market; consumer spending at risk | EV008 |
| S006 | BEA (Bureau of Economic Analysis) | - | official-release | 2026-02-20 | Q4 2025 GDP advance estimate 1.4% annualized vs 4.4% Q3; PCE prices +2.9% | public | high | Sharp deceleration signals demand cliff; stagflationary mix with elevated PCE | EV009 |
| S007 | Motley Fool / Shiller CAPE data | - | analysis | 2026-02-01 | S&P 500 CAPE ratio 40.2 in January 2026; highest since dot-com; this expensive <3% of history since 1957 | public | high | Extreme valuation amplifies downside risk; historical precedent warns of mean-reversion | EV005 |
| S008 | CBOE | - | market-data | 2026-03-12 | VIX at ~30+, 90th percentile; backwardation = acute near-term fear | public | high | Elevated vol compresses risk-adjusted returns; triggers systematic de-risking | EV006 |
| S009 | FXEmpire / CNBC | - | news-report | 2026-03-06 | 90-day tariff suspension relief rally fading; rally to ~7000 area giving back gains as oil/war fears dominate | public | medium | Temporary tariff relief offset by larger structural concerns | EV007 |
| S010 | BLS (CPI Release) | - | official-release | 2026-03-11 | CPI Feb 2.4% YoY (in-line), core 2.5% (in-line); shelter +0.2%, food +0.4%, energy +0.6% | public | high | In-line CPI keeps Fed on hold; energy component rising; ISM prices warn of pipeline inflation | EV010 |
| S011 | Federal Reserve / FOMC | - | official-release | 2026-01-28 | FOMC voted to maintain federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75%; held steady after three 2025 cuts | public | high | Fed on hold; markets expect 1-2 cuts in 2026; CPI in-line removes March cut urgency | EV011 |
| S012 | Bloomberg / JPMorgan | JPMorgan head of global market intelligence | analysis | 2026-03-09 | JPMorgan sees 10% correction in S&P 500 as war risks build; tactically bearish on US stocks | institutional | high | Major sell-side turning bearish; institutional positioning shift underway | EV013 |
| S013 | Yahoo Finance / Yardeni Research | Ed Yardeni | analysis | 2026-03-11 | Yardeni raises odds of US market meltdown to 35%, up from 20%; sees 15-20% overshoot risk | public | high | Consensus shifting to downside; strategists see meaningful correction probability | EV013 |
| S014 | Axios / CBS News | - | news-report | 2026-03-11 | Trump says war will end 'soon'; 'practically nothing left' to target; declined to give specific timeline | public | medium | Potential positive catalyst but no firm commitment; Hormuz reopening separate from war end | EV014 |
| S015 | IEA / CNBC / Bloomberg | - | official-release | 2026-03-11 | IEA unanimously agrees to 400M barrel release; US contributing 172M from SPR; largest ever coordinated action | public | high | Insufficient to offset structural Hormuz disruption; prices recovered after initial dip | EV015 |
| id | subFactor | parent | type | valueEvidence | status | leadTime | startDate | projectedEnd | lastUpdated | sources | references |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF001 | Strait of Hormuz is physically blocked with <10% of pre-conflict oil flows | - | action | IRGC mining strait; 3+ ships attacked; US destroyed Iranian naval ships and minelayers; Iran vows "not a litre of oil" passes | confirmed | - | 2026-02-27 | 2026-03-26 | 2026-03-12 | S002 | - |
| SF002 | Brent crude is trading at ~$101 after extreme $84-$120 volatility | - | action | Live Oanda data confirms ~$101; IEA release briefly pushed to $84 before recovery | confirmed | - | 2026-03-01 | - | 2026-03-12 | S001,S003 | - |
| SF003 | Oil-equity negative correlation is strengthening | - | action | SPX500 down from 7020 ATH to ~6707 as oil surged; correlation tracked in positioning data | confirmed | - | 2026-03-01 | - | 2026-03-12 | S001 | - |
| SF004 | Iraq production collapsed from 4.42 mb/d to 1.2-1.5 mb/d | - | action | Storage full; exports near-zero via Gulf route | confirmed | - | 2026-03-08 | - | 2026-03-12 | S003 | - |
| SF005 | UAE and Kuwait deepening output cuts as they cannot export | - | action | Cannot export via Hormuz; cutting production as storage fills | confirmed | - | 2026-03-07 | - | 2026-03-12 | S003 | - |
| SF006 | IEA 400M barrel release failed to sustainably lower prices | - | action | Prices briefly dipped then recovered above $90; structural disruption overwhelms reserves | confirmed | ~60 days | 2026-03-11 | 2026-05-11 | 2026-03-12 | S015 | - |
| SF007 | War expected to last 2-4 more weeks — oil shock duration | - | intention | Trump says "soon" but declined timeline; "practically nothing left" rhetoric but no ceasefire agreed | partial | 2-4 weeks | - | 2026-03-26 | 2026-03-12 | S014 | - |
| SF008 | ISM Manufacturing Prices actually printed 70.5 vs 59.0 expected | - | action | +11.5 point surprise; highest since 2022 | confirmed | - | 2026-03-03 | - | 2026-03-12 | S004 | - |
| SF009 | Tariffs are the primary driver of price surge | - | capability | 90-day suspension implies tariffs are pending; ISM respondents cite tariff-driven costs; manufacturing new orders declined to 48.6 suggesting demand not driving prices | confirmed | - | 2026-02-15 | 2026-05-15 | 2026-03-12 | S004,S009 | - |
| SF010 | Oil war layering additional input cost pressure on top of tariffs | - | action | Brent at ~$101 directly raises energy/transport costs; dual channel of cost inflation | confirmed | - | 2026-03-01 | - | 2026-03-12 | S001,S004 | - |
| SF011 | CAPE ratio is at 40.2, 97th+ percentile | - | action | Data from Motley Fool citing Shiller PE; S&P at this valuation level <3% of history since 1957 | confirmed | - | 2024-09-01 | - | 2026-03-12 | S007 | - |
| SF012 | Historical mean-reversion: high CAPE predicts low 10-year returns | - | precedent | Well-documented in Shiller research; every prior CAPE >35 episode preceded below-average decade returns | confirmed | - | - | - | 2026-03-12 | S007 | - |
| SF013 | Fragility increases at extreme valuations — larger drawdowns from shocks | - | precedent | 2000 (CAPE ~44), 2007 (CAPE ~27) both preceded >40% drawdowns; current CAPE comparable to dot-com peak | confirmed | - | - | - | 2026-03-12 | S007 | - |
| SF014 | NFP printed -92K vs +55K expected | - | action | BLS confirmed; largest monthly loss since pandemic | confirmed | - | 2026-02-01 | - | 2026-03-12 | S005 | - |
| SF015 | DOGE layoffs are a significant driver of job losses | - | action | Cited in BLS release context; federal government workforce reductions | confirmed | - | 2026-01-15 | - | 2026-03-12 | S005 | - |
| SF016 | Prior 2 months revised down by 69K | - | action | BLS revision; previous +143K revised to +125K plus additional prior revision | confirmed | - | 2025-12-01 | - | 2026-03-12 | S005 | - |
| SF017 | Unemployment rate jumped to 4.4% from 4.1% | - | action | 0.3pp increase in one month; highest since Oct 2021 | confirmed | - | 2026-02-01 | - | 2026-03-12 | S005 | - |
| SF018 | Q4 2025 GDP printed 1.4% vs 4.4% in Q3 | - | action | BEA advance estimate; 3pp deceleration in one quarter | confirmed | - | 2025-10-01 | - | 2026-03-12 | S006 | - |
| SF019 | PCE prices within GDP report were +2.9%, core +2.7% | - | action | Inflation persistent even as growth slowed — stagflationary signal | confirmed | - | 2025-10-01 | - | 2026-03-12 | S006 | - |
| SF020 | CPI at 2.4% but ISM prices surging to 70.5 — pipeline inflation | - | action | Current CPI in-line but leading indicators (ISM prices, oil) point to acceleration | confirmed | - | 2026-03-03 | - | 2026-03-12 | S004,S010 | - |
| SF021 | Growth collapsing: GDP 1.4%, NFP -92K, UE 4.4% | - | action | Multiple independent growth measures all weakening simultaneously | confirmed | - | 2026-02-01 | - | 2026-03-12 | S005,S006 | - |
| SF022 | Fed trapped — cannot cut (inflation) or hike (recession) | - | constraint | Rates at 3.50-3.75%; CPI in-line removes cut urgency; ISM prices/oil surge prevents cuts; weak growth prevents hikes | confirmed | 7 days to FOMC | 2026-01-28 | 2026-03-19 | 2026-03-12 | S010,S011 | - |
| SF023 | JPMorgan head of global market intelligence called "tactically bearish" with 10% correction risk | - | action | Published Bloomberg/JPMorgan report; oil above $100 + war risks cited | confirmed | - | 2026-03-09 | - | 2026-03-12 | S012 | - |
| SF024 | Yardeni raised meltdown odds from 20% to 35% | - | action | Published via Yahoo Finance; sees 15-20% overshoot risk | confirmed | - | 2026-03-11 | - | 2026-03-12 | S013 | - |
| SF025 | SPX500 already down ~4.5% from 7020 ATH to 6707 | - | action | Selling resumed after failed bounce from tariff suspension rally | confirmed | - | 2026-01-27 | - | 2026-03-12 | S008,S012 | - |