| id | name | parent | category | temporalState | realizationStatus | value | trend | significance | direction | magnitude | duration | probability | confidence | date | startDate | projectedEnd | leadTime | leadTimeBasis | sourceType | lastUpdated | topics | sources | evidenceFor | evidenceAgainst | leadTimeEvidence | references |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV001 | Oil price surge to ~$100 (Brent) due to Hormuz blockade | - | supply | present | confirmed | Brent ~$101, 16+ mb/d halted | stable | high | bearish | major | sustained | - | high | 2026-03-13 | 2026-02-28 | 2026-04-01 | 2-4 weeks | estimated | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | oil,geopolitical,Iran,Hormuz,CAD | S001,S002 | SF001,SF002,SF003,SF004 | - | SF005,SF006 | EV003,EV010 |
| EV002 | IEA 400M barrel reserve release underway | - | supply | present | confirmed | 400M barrels | stable | medium | bullish | moderate | transient | - | high | 2026-03-13 | 2026-03-01 | 2026-04-15 | 4-6 weeks | deployment | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | oil,policy,IEA,reserves | S003 | - | - | - | EV001 |
| EV003 | US war expected to end in 2-4 weeks | EV001 | supply | future | registered | War end 2-4 weeks | accelerating | high | bullish | moderate | short | 0.65 | medium | 2026-03-13 | - | 2026-04-01 | 2-4 weeks | announcement | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | geopolitical,war,Iran,oil | S004,S005 | SF005,SF006,SF007 | - | SF006 | EV001,EV010 |
| EV004 | Fed on hold at 3.50-3.75% with higher-for-longer bias | - | supply | present | confirmed | 3.50-3.75% | stable | medium | neutral | minor | sustained | - | high | 2026-03-13 | 2025-09-01 | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | monetary-policy,Fed,USD | S006 | SF008,SF009 | - | - | EV006,EV011 |
| EV005 | US labor market weakening — NFP -92K, unemployment 4.4% | - | supply | past | confirmed | -92K jobs, 4.4% UE | falling | high | bearish | moderate | short | - | high | 2026-03-07 | 2026-03-07 | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | labor,economic,USD,Fed | S007 | SF015,SF016,SF017 | - | - | EV004,EV015 |
| EV006 | BoC on hold at 2.25% | - | supply | present | confirmed | 2.25% | stable | medium | neutral | minor | sustained | - | high | 2026-03-13 | 2025-12-01 | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | monetary-policy,BoC,CAD | S008 | SF008,SF010 | - | - | EV004,EV011 |
| EV007 | Canada Q4 GDP contraction -0.6% | - | supply | past | confirmed | -0.6% Q4 GDP | falling | medium | bullish | moderate | short | - | high | 2026-02-28 | 2026-02-28 | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | economic,GDP,Canada,CAD | S009 | - | - | - | EV006 |
| EV008 | US-Canada trade tensions — tariff uncertainty | - | supply | present | confirmed | Tariff uncertainty | stable | high | mixed | moderate | sustained | - | medium | 2026-03-13 | 2025-01-20 | 2026-07-01 | 4 months | schedule | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | trade,tariff,US-Canada,USMCA | S010,S011 | SF018,SF019,SF020 | SF019 | SF020 | EV017,EV018 |
| EV009 | Safe-haven USD demand amid Iran-US war | - | demand | present | confirmed | VIX ~30+ | stable | high | bullish | moderate | transient | - | high | 2026-03-13 | 2026-02-28 | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | risk,safe-haven,USD,VIX | S012 | - | - | - | EV001,EV012 |
| EV010 | Oil-driven CAD inflows — Canada strongest G7 currency | EV001 | demand | present | confirmed | CAD strongest G7 | rising | high | bearish | major | sustained | - | high | 2026-03-13 | 2026-03-01 | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | FX,CAD,oil,capital-flows | S002,S013 | SF011,SF012 | - | - | EV001,EV011 |
| EV011 | US-Canada interest rate differential narrowing to ~125bp | - | demand | present | confirmed | ~125bp spread | stable | high | bearish | moderate | sustained | - | high | 2026-03-13 | 2025-12-01 | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | monetary-policy,rates,carry,FX | S006,S008 | SF008 | - | - | EV004,EV006 |
| EV012 | Risk-off sentiment — VIX at ~30+ | EV001 | demand | present | confirmed | VIX 30+ backwardation | stable | medium | bullish | moderate | transient | - | high | 2026-03-13 | 2026-02-28 | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | volatility,risk,VIX | S012 | - | - | - | EV009 |
| EV013 | Extreme bullish CAD positioning — CFTC 97th percentile | - | demand | present | confirmed | 97th percentile long CAD | stable | high | bearish | moderate | short | - | high | 2026-03-13 | 2026-03-01 | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | positioning,CFTC,COT,CAD | S014 | SF013,SF014 | - | - | EV010 |
| EV014 | US equity weakness — stagflation fears | - | demand | present | confirmed | SPX selling pressure | falling | medium | mixed | moderate | short | - | medium | 2026-03-13 | 2026-03-01 | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | equities,SPX,stagflation,risk | S015 | - | - | - | EV005,EV009 |
| EV015 | US core PCE at 3.0% — sticky inflation | - | demand | past | confirmed | 3.0% YoY core PCE | stable | medium | bullish | minor | short | - | high | 2026-02-28 | 2026-02-28 | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | inflation,PCE,Fed,USD | S016 | - | - | - | EV004 |
| EV016 | Canada January unemployment beat at 6.5% | - | demand | past | confirmed | 6.5% unemployment beat | rising | low | bearish | minor | short | - | high | 2026-02-07 | 2026-02-07 | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | labor,Canada,CAD | S017 | - | - | - | EV006 |
| EV017 | Supreme Court strikes IEEPA tariffs — bullish CAD | EV008 | demand | past | confirmed | IEEPA tariffs struck down | stable | medium | bearish | minor | sustained | - | high | 2026-02-20 | 2026-02-20 | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | trade,legal,tariffs,Supreme-Court | S018 | SF019 | - | - | EV008,EV018 |
| EV018 | House votes to repeal Canada tariffs (pending Senate) | EV008 | demand | present | registered | House 219-211 vote | rising | low | bearish | minor | sustained | 0.25 | low | 2026-03-10 | 2026-03-10 | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | trade,tariffs,Congress | S019 | - | - | - | EV008,EV017 |
| id | source | author | type | date | quote | audience | credibility | impact | references |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S001 | IRGC Naval Command | - | military-communique | 2026-03-13 | Not a litre of oil will pass through the strait | adversary | high | Confirms total Hormuz blockade, validates 16+ mb/d supply disruption | EV001,SF001 |
| S002 | Oanda | - | data-release | 2026-03-13 | Brent ~$101, WTI ~$98 | market | high | Real-time price confirmation of oil surge | EV001,EV010,SF002 |
| S003 | IEA | - | policy-doc | 2026-03-01 | Coordinated 400M barrel release authorized | international | high | Largest reserve release in history, failed to sustainably lower prices | EV002 |
| S004 | Trump Administration | Donald Trump | press-release | 2026-03-13 | Practically nothing left to target in Iran | public | medium | Signals potential war wind-down, key for oil price trajectory | EV003,SF005 |
| S005 | US Defense Department | Pete Hegseth | press-release | 2026-03-12 | Timeline shortened to 2-4 weeks | public | medium | Updated war duration estimate | EV003,SF006 |
| S006 | Federal Reserve | - | policy-doc | 2026-03-13 | Fed holds at 3.50-3.75% | market | high | Confirms higher-for-longer bias | EV004,EV011,SF008 |
| S007 | Bureau of Labor Statistics | - | data-release | 2026-03-07 | NFP -92K, unemployment 4.4% | market | high | Largest job loss since pandemic, increases recession risk | EV005,SF015,SF016,SF017 |
| S008 | Bank of Canada | - | policy-doc | 2026-03-13 | BoC holds at 2.25% | market | high | Stable CAD monetary conditions | EV006,EV011,SF008,SF010 |
| S009 | Statistics Canada | - | data-release | 2026-02-28 | Q4 GDP -0.6% | market | high | Confirms Canadian economic weakness | EV007 |
| S010 | Fulcrum/Norton Rose | - | news-report | 2026-03-13 | Trump vs Carney rhetoric escalating | public | medium | Confirms ongoing US-Canada trade tensions | EV008,SF018 |
| S011 | Congressional Research Service | - | policy-doc | 2026-03-01 | USMCA review scheduled July 2026 | public | high | Major future risk event for CAD | EV008,SF020 |
| S012 | CBOE | - | data-release | 2026-03-13 | VIX ~30+, backwardation structure | market | high | Confirms elevated risk-off sentiment | EV009,EV012 |
| S013 | TradingEconomics | - | data-release | 2026-03-13 | CAD strongest G7 currency, +0.21% | market | high | Confirms CAD outperformance | EV010,SF011 |
| S014 | CFTC | - | data-release | 2026-03-11 | CAD net long 97th percentile, +21K | market | high | Extreme positioning creates reversal risk | EV013,SF013,SF014 |
| S015 | JPMorgan | - | news-report | 2026-03-13 | 10% SPX correction warning | market | medium | Stagflation concerns weighing on equities | EV014 |
| S016 | Bureau of Economic Analysis | - | data-release | 2026-02-28 | Core PCE 3.0% YoY | market | high | Sticky inflation constrains Fed easing | EV015 |
| S017 | Statistics Canada | - | data-release | 2026-02-07 | Unemployment 6.5% vs 6.7% expected | market | high | Stronger Canadian labor market supports CAD | EV016 |
| S018 | Holland & Knight | - | news-report | 2026-02-20 | Supreme Court struck down IEEPA tariffs | public | high | 35% tariff on non-CUSMA goods invalidated | EV017,SF019 |
| S019 | US House of Representatives | - | policy-doc | 2026-03-10 | House votes 219-211 to repeal tariffs | public | high | Signal of potential relief but Senate unlikely | EV018 |
| id | subFactor | parent | type | valueEvidence | status | leadTime | startDate | projectedEnd | lastUpdated | sources | references |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF001 | Strait of Hormuz physically blocked by Iranian mines and patrols | EV001 | action | 16+ mb/d halted; IRGC vows "not a litre of oil" passes; <10% of pre-conflict flows | confirmed | - | 2026-02-28 | 2026-04-01 | 2026-03-13 | S001 | EV001 |
| SF002 | Brent price at ~$101, WTI at ~$98 | EV001 | action | Oanda live data confirms price levels; extreme volatility ($84-$120 range in week) | confirmed | - | 2026-02-28 | - | 2026-03-13 | S002 | EV001 |
| SF003 | Iraq production collapsed to 1.2-1.5 mb/d (from 4.42 mb/d) | EV001 | action | Storage full; exports near-zero via Gulf route | confirmed | - | 2026-03-01 | - | 2026-03-13 | S001 | EV001 |
| SF004 | Canada energy sector benefits from high oil prices | EV001 | capability | Canada is 4th largest oil exporter globally; trade balance improves with oil price | confirmed | - | - | - | 2026-03-13 | S002 | EV001 |
| SF005 | Trump says "practically nothing left" to target | EV003 | intention | Direct Trump statement; but war endings notoriously unpredictable; Khamenei leadership change adds uncertainty | partial | 2-4 weeks | - | 2026-04-01 | 2026-03-13 | S004 | EV003 |
| SF006 | Timeline shortened from 4-6 weeks to 2-4 weeks | EV003 | intention | Consistent messaging from Trump, Hegseth, Rubio | partial | 2-4 weeks | - | 2026-04-01 | 2026-03-13 | S005 | EV003 |
| SF007 | Mojtaba Khamenei named new supreme leader | EV003 | action | Confirmed leadership transition; Trump "not happy" | confirmed | - | 2026-03-12 | - | 2026-03-13 | S004 | EV003 |
| SF008 | Fed at 3.50-3.75%, BoC at 2.25% | - | action | Both central banks on hold; differential ~125bp | confirmed | - | - | - | 2026-03-13 | S006,S008 | - |
| SF009 | Market pricing only 1 Fed cut in 2026 (September) | - | capability | CME FedWatch data; sharp reduction from prior 2-3 cuts expectation | confirmed | - | - | - | 2026-03-13 | S006 | - |
| SF010 | BoC expected on hold Mar 18 due to tariff uncertainty | - | intention | Policy statement notes elevated uncertainty; holding despite Q4 GDP contraction | partial | - | - | - | 2026-03-13 | S008 | - |
| SF011 | CAD strongest G7 currency in March | - | action | TradingEconomics confirms +0.21% outperformance | confirmed | - | 2026-03-01 | - | 2026-03-13 | S013 | - |
| SF012 | USD/CAD at 1.3644 — near 1-month low | - | action | Oanda live data confirms CAD strength | confirmed | - | - | - | 2026-03-13 | S002 | - |
| SF013 | CFTC managed money net long at 97th percentile | - | action | CFTC COT data: ~+21K net long, 104,490 asset manager longs vs 66,315 lev fund shorts | confirmed | - | 2026-03-01 | - | 2026-03-13 | S014 | - |
| SF014 | Crowded positioning creates reversal risk | - | constraint | Historical pattern: extreme positioning often precedes mean reversion; requires catalyst | partial | - | - | - | 2026-03-13 | S014 | - |
| SF015 | NFP -92,000 in February | - | action | Largest monthly job loss since pandemic; DOGE layoffs factor | confirmed | - | 2026-03-07 | - | 2026-03-13 | S007 | - |
| SF016 | Unemployment jumped to 4.4% (from 4.1%) | - | action | 0.3pp increase; highest since Oct 2021 | confirmed | - | 2026-03-07 | - | 2026-03-13 | S007 | - |
| SF017 | Prior two months revised down by 69K total | - | action | BLS revision confirms weakening trend | confirmed | - | 2026-03-07 | - | 2026-03-13 | S007 | - |
| SF018 | Trump vs Carney personal/vitriolic rhetoric | - | action | Fulcrum/Norton Rose reporting; Carney tough on tariffs | confirmed | - | 2025-01-20 | - | 2026-03-13 | S010 | - |
| SF019 | Supreme Court ruled IEEPA tariffs unlawful | - | action | Holland & Knight Feb 20; 35% tariff on non-CUSMA goods struck down | confirmed | - | 2026-02-20 | - | 2026-03-13 | S018 | - |
| SF020 | USMCA July 2026 review registered | - | constraint | Congressional Research Service; scheduled major risk event | confirmed | 4 months | - | 2026-07-01 | 2026-03-13 | S011 | - |