| id | name | parent | category | temporalState | realizationStatus | value | trend | significance | direction | magnitude | duration | probability | confidence | date | startDate | projectedEnd | leadTime | leadTimeBasis | sourceType | lastUpdated | topics | sources | evidenceFor | evidenceAgainst | leadTimeEvidence | references |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV001 | US labor market deterioration | - | supply | past | confirmed | -92K jobs | accelerating | high | bearish | major | short | - | high | 2026-03-06 | 2026-02-01 | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | employment,fed-policy,economic-data | S001 | SF008,SF009,SF010 | - | - | EV003 |
| EV002 | US Q4 GDP deceleration | - | supply | past | confirmed | 1.4% GDP | decelerating | medium | bearish | moderate | short | - | high | 2026-02-27 | 2025-10-01 | 2025-12-31 | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | gdp,us-economy | S002 | - | - | - | EV001 |
| EV003 | Fed-BoJ spread narrowing potential | - | supply | future | registered | 275bp spread | stable | high | bearish | moderate | sustained | 0.35 | medium | 2026-03-18 | - | - | 5 days | schedule | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | central-bank,rate-differential,boj,fed | S003,S004 | SF004,SF022,SF023 | SF001,SF002 | SF004 | EV008,EV004 |
| EV004 | BoJ hawkish dissent building | EV003 | supply | past | confirmed | 8-1 vote | rising | medium | bearish | moderate | sustained | - | high | 2026-01-24 | 2026-01-24 | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | boj,monetary-policy,dissent | S005 | SF020,SF021 | - | - | EV003 |
| EV005 | Japan real wage growth positive | - | supply | past | confirmed | +3.6% wages | rising | medium | bearish | minor | structural | - | medium | 2026-03-07 | 2026-01-01 | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | japan-economy,wages,boj-normalization | S006 | - | - | - | EV004 |
| EV006 | Risk-off from ME conflict | - | supply | present | confirmed | VIX ~30 | stable | medium | bearish | moderate | transient | - | medium | 2026-03-13 | 2026-02-27 | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | risk-sentiment,jpy-safe-haven,geopolitical | S007 | - | SF011 | - | EV011 |
| EV007 | War winding down signals | EV006 | supply | future | registered | 2-4 weeks | stable | medium | bearish | moderate | short | 0.5 | low | 2026-03-12 | - | 2026-04-10 | 2-4 weeks | announcement | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | war-resolution,geopolitical | S008 | - | - | - | EV006,EV011 |
| EV008 | Fed-BoJ policy divergence | - | demand | present | confirmed | 275bp | stable | high | bullish | major | sustained | - | high | 2026-03-13 | 2024-03-19 | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | carry-trade,rate-differential,fed,boj | S003,S009 | SF001,SF002,SF003 | SF004 | - | EV009,EV013 |
| EV009 | US yields elevated | - | demand | present | confirmed | 4.27% 10Y | rising | high | bullish | major | sustained | - | high | 2026-03-12 | 2026-02-01 | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | treasury-yields,carry-trade,usd-strength | S010 | SF005,SF006,SF007 | - | - | EV008 |
| EV010 | Sticky US inflation | - | demand | present | confirmed | 3.0% PCE | stable | high | bullish | moderate | sustained | - | high | 2026-03-13 | - | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | inflation,fed-policy | S011 | SF014,SF015,SF016 | - | - | EV008 |
| EV011 | Japan oil import shock | - | demand | present | confirmed | 90% dependency | stable | high | bullish | major | short | - | high | 2026-03-13 | 2026-02-27 | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | japan-energy,terms-of-trade,jpy-weakness | S012,S013 | SF011,SF012,SF013 | - | - | EV006 |
| EV012 | ISM Services strength | - | demand | past | confirmed | 56.1 | rising | medium | bullish | moderate | short | - | high | 2026-03-05 | - | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | us-economy,services | S014 | - | - | - | - |
| EV013 | Carry trade positioning | EV008 | demand | present | confirmed | 95th percentile | stable | medium | bullish | moderate | sustained | - | high | 2026-03-13 | 2024-07-01 | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | positioning,carry-trade,crowded-trade | S015 | SF017,SF018,SF019 | - | - | EV008,EV015 |
| EV014 | Fed Warsh transition | - | demand | future | registered | - | stable | low | bullish | minor | sustained | 0.9 | high | 2026-05-23 | - | - | 10 weeks | schedule | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | fed-leadership,monetary-policy | S016 | - | - | - | EV008 |
| EV015 | MoF intervention risk (limits upside) | - | demand | present | confirmed | 158-160 zone | rising | high | bearish | moderate | transient | - | high | 2026-03-13 | - | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | intervention,mof,jpy-support | S017 | SF017,SF018 | - | - | EV013 |
| id | source | author | type | date | quote | audience | credibility | impact | references |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S001 | Bureau of Labor Statistics | - | data-release | 2026-03-06 | NFP -92K, UR 4.4% | public | high | Signals US labor market weakness; largest job loss since pandemic | EV001,SF008,SF009 |
| S002 | Bureau of Economic Analysis | - | data-release | 2026-02-27 | Q4 GDP 1.4% vs 4.4% prior | public | high | Sharp GDP deceleration signals economic slowing | EV002 |
| S003 | Federal Reserve | - | policy-doc | 2026-01-28 | FOMC held rates at 3.50-3.75% | market | high | Confirms Fed on hold; supports USD via yield differential | EV008,SF001 |
| S004 | Bank of Japan | - | policy-doc | 2026-01-24 | Policy rate held at 0.75%, vote 8-1 | market | high | BoJ maintains dovish stance but dissent signals future tightening | EV003,EV004,SF002,SF004 |
| S005 | CNBC | - | news-report | 2026-01-24 | BoJ board member Takata proposed 1.0% rate | market | high | First hawkish dissent signals direction of BoJ normalization | EV004,SF020,SF021 |
| S006 | Japan Statistics Bureau | - | data-release | 2026-03-07 | Real wages positive first time in 13 months | public | high | Supports BoJ case for continued normalization | EV005 |
| S007 | CBOE | - | data-release | 2026-03-13 | VIX ~30 | market | high | Elevated risk sentiment triggers JPY safe-haven bid | EV006 |
| S008 | White House | Trump | press-release | 2026-03-12 | War will end in 2-4 weeks | international | low | Political signal on war timeline; reliability uncertain | EV007 |
| S009 | CME FedWatch | - | data-release | 2026-03-13 | Market pricing one 25bp Fed cut in 2026 | market | high | Shows market expects Fed higher for longer | EV008,SF003 |
| S010 | TradingEconomics | - | data-release | 2026-03-12 | 10Y Treasury at 4.27% | market | high | Elevated yields support USD carry trade | EV009,SF005,SF006 |
| S011 | Bureau of Economic Analysis | - | data-release | 2026-03-13 | Core PCE 3.0% YoY | public | high | Above-target inflation constrains Fed from cutting | EV010,SF014 |
| S012 | Al Jazeera | - | news-report | 2026-03-12 | Hormuz Strait remains blocked; Iran mining operations continue | international | medium | Confirms ongoing supply disruption affecting Japan energy imports | EV011,SF012 |
| S013 | CNBC | - | news-report | 2026-03-11 | Japan releasing 80M barrels from reserves | market | high | Emergency SPR release signals severity of oil shock | EV011,SF13 |
| S014 | ISM | - | data-release | 2026-03-05 | ISM Services 56.1 vs 53.5 expected | market | high | Strong services expansion offsetting manufacturing weakness | EV012 |
| S015 | CFTC COT | - | data-release | 2026-03-08 | JPY speculative shorts at 95th percentile | market | high | Crowded positioning creates squeeze vulnerability | EV013,SF017,SF18,SF19 |
| S016 | White House | - | press-release | 2026-02-15 | Kevin Warsh nominated as next Fed Chair | market | high | Hawkish successor supports long-term USD strength | EV014 |
| S017 | Ministry of Finance Japan | - | press-release | 2026-03-12 | Watching FX movements with vigilance | market | high | Verbal intervention signals MoF concern about yen weakness | EV015 |
| id | subFactor | parent | type | valueEvidence | status | leadTime | startDate | projectedEnd | lastUpdated | sources | references |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF001 | Fed funds at 3.50-3.75% | EV008 | action | FOMC held rates Jan 28 | confirmed | - | 2026-01-28 | - | 2026-03-13 | S003 | EV008 |
| SF002 | BoJ at 0.75% — 30-year high | EV008 | action | BoJ held 8-1 in January | confirmed | - | 2026-01-24 | - | 2026-03-13 | S004 | EV008 |
| SF003 | Market pricing only one 25bp Fed cut in 2026 | EV008 | deployment | CME FedWatch shows September | confirmed | - | - | - | 2026-03-13 | S009 | EV008 |
| SF004 | BoJ March meeting may hike | EV008 | intention | ING/State Street/GS see potential April hike if yen breaches 160 | partial | 5 days | - | 2026-03-19 | 2026-03-13 | S004 | EV008 |
| SF005 | 10Y Treasury at 4.27% | EV009 | action | CNBC/TradingEconomics Mar 12 | confirmed | - | 2026-03-12 | - | 2026-03-13 | S010 | EV009 |
| SF006 | 30Y at 4.87% | EV009 | action | Market data Mar 12 | confirmed | - | 2026-03-12 | - | 2026-03-13 | S010 | EV009 |
| SF007 | 20-year auction tailed significantly | EV009 | action | Weak bid-to-cover ratio Feb | confirmed | - | 2026-02-01 | - | 2026-03-13 | S010 | EV009 |
| SF008 | NFP -92,000 in February | EV001 | action | BLS Mar 6 release | confirmed | - | 2026-02-01 | 2026-02-28 | 2026-03-13 | S001 | EV001 |
| SF009 | Unemployment jumped to 4.4% | EV001 | action | BLS Mar 6; 0.3pp increase | confirmed | - | 2026-02-01 | - | 2026-03-13 | S001 | EV001 |
| SF010 | DOGE layoffs significant contributor | EV001 | deployment | Multiple sources cite federal workforce cuts | partial | - | 2026-01-20 | - | 2026-03-13 | S001 | EV001 |
| SF011 | Japan relies on ME for 90% of oil | EV011 | constraint | InvestingCube/CNBC Mar 12 | confirmed | - | - | - | 2026-03-13 | S012 | EV011 |
| SF012 | Hormuz Strait still blocked | EV011 | action | Al Jazeera/Bloomberg Mar 12 | confirmed | - | 2026-02-27 | - | 2026-03-13 | S012 | EV011 |
| SF013 | Japan releasing 80M barrels from reserves | EV011 | action | CNBC Mar 11-12 | confirmed | - | 2026-03-11 | - | 2026-03-13 | S013 | EV011 |
| SF014 | Core PCE at 3.0% YoY | EV010 | action | BEA Mar 13 release | confirmed | - | - | - | 2026-03-13 | S011 | EV010 |
| SF015 | ISM Manufacturing Prices surged to 70.5 | EV010 | action | ISM Mar 3 | confirmed | - | 2026-03-03 | - | 2026-03-13 | S011 | EV010 |
| SF016 | Tariff-driven cost inflation | EV010 | deployment | ISM notes tariff impact | confirmed | - | - | - | 2026-03-13 | S011 | EV010 |
| SF017 | USD/JPY at 159.38, approaching 160 | - | action | Oanda live data | confirmed | - | - | - | 2026-03-13 | S015 | - |
| SF018 | Jul 2024 intervention zone 157.77-161.95 | - | precedent | Historical precedent | confirmed | - | 2024-07-01 | - | 2026-03-13 | S015 | - |
| SF019 | Yen weakest G10 currency | - | deployment | FX Markets Mar 13 | confirmed | - | - | - | 2026-03-13 | S015 | - |
| SF020 | Takata dissented for 1.0% rate | EV004 | action | CNBC Jan 2026 | confirmed | - | 2026-01-24 | - | 2026-03-13 | S005 | EV004 |
| SF021 | Vote was 8-1 for hold | EV004 | action | CNBC Jan 2026 | confirmed | - | 2026-01-24 | - | 2026-03-13 | S005 | EV004 |
| SF022 | BoJ may delay hike due to oil shock | EV003 | constraint | ING/MarketPulse Mar 2026 | partial | 5 days | - | - | 2026-03-13 | S004 | EV003 |
| SF023 | State Street/GS see hike as early as April if yen breaches 160 | EV003 | intention | Analyst commentary | partial | 3-6 weeks | - | - | 2026-03-13 | S004 | EV003 |