| entity | type | weight | basis | confidence | lastUpdated | references |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV008 | event | 25% | Core driver of USD/JPY; 275bp spread dominates carry trade flows; market structure phase confirms fundamentals with 0.9 trust weight | high | 2026-03-13 | EV008,SF001,SF002,SF003 |
| EV009 | event | 20% | 10Y at 4.27% is highest in months; directly feeds into carry trade calculations; Treasury supply concerns adding upward pressure | high | 2026-03-13 | EV009,SF005,SF006,SF007 |
| EV011 | event | 18% | Acute negative terms of trade shock; 90% ME oil dependency with Hormuz blocked crushes JPY; structural weakness until strait reopens | high | 2026-03-13 | EV011,SF011,SF012,SF013 |
| EV015 | event | 12% | At 159.38, within intervention zone (158-160); creates asymmetric downside risk; MoF rhetoric intensifying | medium | 2026-03-13 | EV015,SF017,SF018 |
| EV010 | event | 10% | Core PCE at 3.0% keeps Fed on hold; constrains rate cuts; supports yield differential | high | 2026-03-13 | EV010,SF014,SF015 |
| EV001 | event | 8% | NFP -92K is significant; if sustained, could shift Fed stance; currently insufficient to pivot but growing risk | high | 2026-03-13 | EV001,SF008,SF009 |
| EV003 | event | 4% | Potential but not imminent; BoJ may delay hike due to oil shock; market not pricing near-term BoJ action | medium | 2026-03-13 | EV003,SF004,SF022,SF023 |
| EV004 | event | 3% | Takata dissent signals direction of travel; builds pressure for future hikes; not yet decisive | high | 2026-03-13 | EV004,SF020,SF021 |
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Overall Bias | bullish |
| Confidence | medium |
| Time Horizon | 1-2 weeks |
| Key Driver | EV008: Fed-BoJ policy divergence (275bp spread) combined with elevated US yields (EV009) |
| Key Risk | MoF/BoJ intervention above 160 (EV015) or surprise BoJ hike at March 18-19 meeting (EV003) |
| rank | id | name | type | why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | EV008 | Fed-BoJ policy divergence | unified-event | 25%% influence weight. Core driver of USD/JPY; 275bp spread dominates carry trade flows; market structure phase confirms fundamentals with 0.9 trust weight |
| 2 | EV009 | US yields elevated | unified-event | 20%% influence weight. 10Y at 4.27% is highest in months; directly feeds into carry trade calculations; Treasury supply concerns adding upward pressure |
| 3 | EV011 | Japan oil import shock | unified-event | 18%% influence weight. Acute negative terms of trade shock; 90% ME oil dependency with Hormuz blocked crushes JPY; structural weakness until strait reopens |
| 4 | EV015 | MoF intervention risk | unified-event | 12%% influence weight. At 159.38, within intervention zone (158-160); creates asymmetric downside risk; MoF rhetoric intensifying |
| 5 | EV010 | Sticky US inflation | unified-event | 10%% influence weight. Core PCE at 3.0% keeps Fed on hold; constrains rate cuts; supports yield differential |
| scenario | probability | priceTarget | keyAssumption | keyEvents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base: Range-bound with upward bias | 50% | 158.50-161.00 | Fed holds hawkish, BoJ holds dovish, no intervention | EV008,EV009,EV011 |
| Bull: Break above 160 toward 163 | 25% | 161.00-163.00 | Fed hawkish surprise at March FOMC, BoJ delays hike, war extends | EV008,EV009,EV010,EV014 |
| Bear: Reversal to 155-157 | 25% | 155.00-157.00 | MoF intervention above 160, BoJ surprise hike, Fed signals cuts | EV015,EV003,EV001 |
| id | risk | trigger | wouldChangeBiasTo | monitoringSignal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R001 | MoF intervention | USD/JPY above 160, especially on fast move | neutral-to-bearish | MoF/BoJ verbal warnings; sudden 2-3 yen drop without news |
| R002 | BoJ surprise hike | March 18-19 meeting delivers 25bp hike | bearish | CPI release, BoJ member speeches before meeting |
| R003 | Fed dovish pivot | FOMC signals concern about labor market | bearish | Dot plot shifts; Powell emphasizes employment mandate |
| R004 | War rapid conclusion | Hormuz reopens within days | bearish | Peace announcement; insurance costs normalize; oil price collapse |
| R005 | Risk-off intensifies | VIX spikes above 40; equity crash | bearish | JPY safe-haven bid dominates oil import costs |
| priority | id | item | checkFrequency | nextCheck | triggerCondition |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MP001 | BoJ March meeting (Mar 18-19) | continuous | 2026-03-18 | Any rate hike or hawkish forward guidance |
| 2 | MP002 | FOMC March meeting (Mar 18-19) | continuous | 2026-03-18 | Dot plot shifts; Powell presser tone |
| 3 | MP003 | MoF intervention rhetoric | daily | 2026-03-14 | "Appropriate measures" language; currency minister statements |
| 4 | MP004 | USD/JPY 160 level | continuous | ongoing | Break and hold above 160 = intervention risk elevated |
| 5 | MP005 | Hormuz Strait status | daily | 2026-03-14 | Partial reopening = JPY relief rally; war end announcement |
| 6 | MP006 | US weekly jobless claims | weekly | 2026-03-20 | Sustained elevation confirms labor weakness |