| id | name | parent | category | temporalState | realizationStatus | value | trend | significance | direction | magnitude | duration | probability | confidence | date | startDate | projectedEnd | leadTime | leadTimeBasis | sourceType | lastUpdated | topics | sources | evidenceFor | evidenceAgainst | leadTimeEvidence | references |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV001 | Strait of Hormuz blockade | - | supply | present | confirmed | 16+ mb/d halted; <10% pre-conflict flow; largest chokepoint disruption in oil history | stable | high | bullish | major | sustained | - | high | 2026-03-12 | 2026-02-28 | 2026-04-01 | 2-4 weeks remaining | Trump/WH statements; military timeline estimates | llm-search | 2026-03-12 | hormuz,blockade,iran,supply-disruption,war | S001,S002,S003 | SF001,SF002,SF003 | SF006 | SF004 | EV002,EV003 |
| EV002 | Iraq production collapse | EV001 | supply | present | confirmed | Production collapsed from 4.42 mb/d to 1.2-1.5 mb/d; storage exhausted | accelerating | high | bullish | major | sustained | - | high | 2026-03-12 | 2026-03-01 | 2026-04-15 | Restart takes weeks after Hormuz reopens | Infrastructure restart timeline; reservoir pressure recovery | llm-search | 2026-03-12 | iraq,production-collapse,storage | S004 | SF001 | - | - | EV001 |
| EV003 | UAE and Kuwait forced output cuts | EV001 | supply | present | confirmed | UAE/Kuwait cutting output as storage fills; no export route via Hormuz | accelerating | high | bullish | major | sustained | - | high | 2026-03-12 | 2026-03-07 | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-12 | uae,kuwait,output-cuts,storage | S005 | SF001 | - | - | EV001 |
| EV004 | IEA 400M barrel reserve release | - | supply | present | confirmed | 400M bbl from 32 IEA members; largest coordinated release ever; 120-day delivery | emerging | high | bearish | major | short | - | high | 2026-03-11 | 2026-03-11 | 2026-07-11 | Deliveries begin next week; 120 days to complete | IEA/DOE announcements; SPR delivery logistics | llm-search | 2026-03-12 | iea,spr,reserve-release,supply-response | S006,S007,S008 | - | SF001 | - | EV005,EV006 |
| EV005 | IEA release fails to sustainably lower prices | EV004 | supply | present | confirmed | Prices briefly dipped then recovered above $90; structural disruption overwhelms reserves | stable | high | bullish | moderate | short | - | high | 2026-03-12 | 2026-03-11 | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-12 | reserve-release,market-reaction,price-resilience | S009 | SF001 | - | - | EV004,EV001 |
| EV006 | US SPR drawdown — 172M barrels | EV004 | supply | present | confirmed | US contributing 172M bbl from SPR; reversal from prior 'rules out SPR' stance | emerging | high | bearish | moderate | sustained | - | high | 2026-03-11 | 2026-03-11 | 2026-07-11 | 120 days | DOE announcement | llm-search | 2026-03-12 | spr,us-reserves,policy-reversal | S007 | - | SF001 | - | EV004 |
| EV007 | EIA crude inventories building | - | supply | past | confirmed | 443.1M bbl; +3.824M vs +1.1M expected; 3rd consecutive build | stable | medium | bearish | minor | short | - | high | 2026-03-11 | - | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-12 | eia,inventory,cushing,domestic-supply | S010 | - | - | - | - |
| EV008 | Saudi pre-crisis production ramp | - | supply | present | confirmed | Saudi at 10.882 mb/d in Feb; up from 10.1 mb/d; pre-crisis ramp | stable | medium | bearish | moderate | sustained | - | medium | 2026-03-11 | 2026-02-01 | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-12 | saudi,production,spare-capacity | S011 | - | - | - | - |
| EV009 | US war expected 2-4 more weeks | EV001 | supply | present | partial | War expected 2-4 more weeks; shortened from 4-6 weeks; Trump 'practically nothing left' | accelerating | high | bearish | major | short | - | medium | 2026-03-12 | - | 2026-03-26 | 2-4 weeks | Trump/Hegseth/Rubio statements | llm-search | 2026-03-12 | war-timeline,ceasefire,normalization | S012 | SF004 | SF005 | SF004 | EV001 |
| EV010 | OPEC+ 206K b/d output unwinding | - | supply | future | confirmed | 206K b/d increase starting April; trivial vs 16+ mb/d disruption | stable | low | bearish | minor | sustained | - | high | 2026-04-01 | 2026-04-01 | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-12 | opec,production-increase | S013 | - | - | - | - |
| EV011 | Iran shipping oil to China through Hormuz | EV001 | supply | present | confirmed | 11.7M bbl shipped to China despite blockade; demonstrates non-absolute closure | stable | low | bearish | minor | short | - | medium | 2026-03-11 | 2026-03-01 | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-12 | iran,china,oil-flow,blockade-bypass | S014 | SF006 | SF001 | - | EV001 |
| EV012 | US labor market deterioration | - | demand | past | confirmed | NFP -92K (vs +55K exp); unemployment 4.4% (vs 4.1%); worst since pandemic | accelerating | high | bearish | major | sustained | - | high | 2026-03-06 | - | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-12 | nfp,unemployment,recession,us-labor | S015 | - | - | - | EV013 |
| EV013 | US GDP deceleration | - | demand | past | confirmed | Q4 2025 GDP at 1.4% vs Q3 4.4%; sharp deceleration | accelerating | high | bearish | moderate | sustained | - | high | 2026-02-20 | - | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-12 | gdp,recession,us-economy | S016 | - | - | - | EV012 |
| EV014 | Tariff-driven inflation / stagflation risk | - | demand | present | confirmed | ISM Mfg Prices 70.5 (+11.5 pts); tariff pass-through; CPI 2.4% inline but predates war | accelerating | high | bearish | moderate | sustained | - | high | 2026-03-11 | - | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-12 | inflation,tariffs,stagflation,ism-prices | S017,S018 | - | EV017 | - | EV020 |
| EV015 | Demand destruction from high prices | - | demand | present | partial | WTI at $95 approaching $100-110 destruction threshold; Brent tested $120 | emerging | high | bearish | moderate | short | - | medium | 2026-03-12 | - | - | 4-8 weeks lag for demand response | Historical demand destruction patterns | llm-search | 2026-03-12 | demand-destruction,price-ceiling,refinery-margins | S019 | - | - | - | EV001 |
| EV016 | Oil-equity negative correlation (stagflation) | - | demand | present | confirmed | Oil up = equities down; inflation/margin channel; SPX under pressure | stable | medium | bearish | moderate | sustained | - | medium | 2026-03-12 | 2026-03-01 | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-12 | correlation,equities,stagflation,spx | S019 | - | - | - | EV014,EV018 |
| EV017 | ISM Services expansion | - | demand | past | confirmed | ISM Services 56.1 vs 53.5 expected; strong expansion | stable | medium | bullish | moderate | short | - | high | 2026-03-05 | - | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-12 | ism-services,demand,us-economy | S020 | - | EV012 | - | - |
| EV018 | VIX elevated / risk-off regime | - | demand | present | confirmed | VIX ~30+; 90th percentile; risk-off across asset classes | stable | medium | bearish | minor | short | - | high | 2026-03-12 | 2026-03-01 | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-12 | vix,volatility,risk-off | S019 | - | - | - | EV016 |
| EV019 | ISM Manufacturing barely expanding | - | demand | past | confirmed | ISM Mfg 50.3 vs 49.8 expected; new orders 48.6 (contraction) | decelerating | low | bearish | minor | sustained | - | high | 2026-03-03 | - | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-12 | manufacturing,demand,ism | S021 | - | - | - | - |
| EV020 | PCE pending (Mar 13) | - | demand | future | registered | Fed's preferred inflation gauge; hot print = stagflation confirmation | uncertain | medium | bearish | moderate | short | - | medium | 2026-03-13 | - | - | Tomorrow | BEA release schedule | llm-search | 2026-03-12 | pce,inflation,fed,monetary-policy | S022 | - | - | - | EV014 |
| id | source | author | type | date | quote | audience | credibility | impact | references |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S001 | Al Jazeera | - | news-report | 2026-03-11 | Iran's IRGC says it will not allow 'a litre of oil' through the Strait of Hormuz | public | high | Confirmed total blockade intention; bullish for supply disruption | EV001 |
| S002 | NBC News | - | news-report | 2026-03-11 | Iran launches its 'most intense' strikes of war; US CENTCOM eliminated 16 Iranian minelayers | public | high | Escalation confirmed; war intensity increasing not decreasing | EV001 |
| S003 | Wikipedia - 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis | - | encyclopedia | 2026-03-12 | Shipping through the strait dropped 95% in the first week of March | public | medium | Quantifies blockade severity | EV001 |
| S004 | Fortune / Argus Media | - | news-report | 2026-03-11 | Iraq production collapsed to 1.2-1.5 mb/d from 4.42 mb/d | public | high | Second-order supply loss; restart requires weeks | EV002 |
| S005 | Fortune / CNBC | - | news-report | 2026-03-11 | UAE and Kuwait output cuts deepening as Hormuz blockade continues | public | high | Additional Gulf supply loss beyond Hormuz headline | EV003 |
| S006 | CNBC | - | news-report | 2026-03-11 | IEA agrees to release record 400 million barrels of oil to address Iran war supply disruption | public | high | Largest ever coordinated release; primary bearish countervailing force | EV004 |
| S007 | Bloomberg / DOE | - | government-release | 2026-03-11 | US to release 172 million barrels from SPR as part of IEA coordination | public | high | US contributing 43% of total; SPR at historic lows after release | EV004,EV006 |
| S008 | Axios | - | news-report | 2026-03-11 | IEA announces historic oil reserve release amid Iran war | public | high | Confirms scale and unprecedented nature | EV004 |
| S009 | NBC News | - | news-report | 2026-03-11 | Major, multi-country oil release deal fails to bring down petroleum prices | public | high | Market rejected bearish reserve release; structural disruption dominates | EV005 |
| S010 | EIA | - | government-release | 2026-03-11 | US crude inventories +3.824M bbl to 443.1M; Cushing +117K | public | high | Bearish build but pre-war data; next report more informative | EV007 |
| S011 | Bloomberg / OPEC MOMR | - | government-release | 2026-03-11 | Saudi pumped 10.882 mb/d in February, up from 10.1 mb/d | public | high | Pre-crisis ramp provides partial supply offset | EV008 |
| S012 | CBS / Axios | - | news-report | 2026-03-11 | Trump says war will end 'soon'; 'practically nothing left' to target | public | medium | War timeline shortened; key swing factor for price | EV009 |
| S013 | OPEC | - | government-release | 2026-03-01 | OPEC+ agrees to 206K b/d unwinding for April | public | high | Trivial vs Hormuz disruption | EV010 |
| S014 | CNBC | - | news-report | 2026-03-11 | Iran sends millions of oil barrels to China through Strait of Hormuz | public | high | Blockade not absolute; but volume tiny | EV011 |
| S015 | BLS | - | government-release | 2026-03-06 | Non-farm payrolls -92,000; unemployment 4.4% | public | high | Recession signal; WTI demand headwind | EV012 |
| S016 | BEA | - | government-release | 2026-02-20 | Q4 2025 GDP advance estimate 1.4% | public | high | Sharp deceleration from 4.4% Q3 | EV013 |
| S017 | ISM | - | government-release | 2026-03-03 | ISM Manufacturing Prices 70.5 vs 59.0 expected | public | high | Tariff inflation surge; stagflation signal | EV014 |
| S018 | BLS | - | government-release | 2026-03-11 | CPI 2.4% YoY, 0.3% MoM; core 2.5% — all inline | public | high | Inline but predates war; future readings will reflect oil spike | EV014 |
| S019 | Market data / Oanda | - | market-data | 2026-03-12 | WTI $93.29; VIX ~30+; SPX under pressure | public | high | Live price; risk-off confirmed | EV015,EV016,EV018 |
| S020 | ISM | - | government-release | 2026-03-05 | ISM Services PMI 56.1 vs 53.5 expected | public | high | Strong services offset weak manufacturing | EV017 |
| S021 | ISM | - | government-release | 2026-03-03 | ISM Manufacturing PMI 50.3; new orders 48.6 | public | high | Barely expanding; new orders contracting | EV019 |
| S022 | BEA schedule | - | government-release | 2026-03-13 | PCE Price Index scheduled for March 13 | public | high | Tomorrow's key release; hot = stagflation confirmed | EV020 |
| id | subFactor | parent | type | valueEvidence | status | leadTime | startDate | projectedEnd | lastUpdated | sources | references |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF001 | Iran has mined and deployed naval assets blocking Strait of Hormuz | - | action | War Day 14; IRGC vows "not a litre of oil" passes; <10% of pre-conflict flow confirmed; 3+ ships attacked; US destroyed Iranian naval ships and minelayers | confirmed | - | 2026-02-28 | 2026-04-01 | 2026-03-12 | S001,S002,S003 | - |
| SF002 | Blockade has persisted for 14 days continuously | - | action | No reports of meaningful reopening; near-total transit stoppage confirmed by multiple sources | confirmed | 14 days and counting | 2026-02-28 | - | 2026-03-12 | S001,S002 | - |
| SF003 | US military operations have not reopened the strait despite 14 days of combat | - | action | Despite "most intense" strikes and 5,500+ targets hit, strait remains blocked; mine-clearing and naval dominance not achieved | confirmed | - | 2026-02-28 | - | 2026-03-12 | S002 | - |
| SF004 | War expected 2-4 more weeks (shortened from 4-6) | - | intention | Trump says "practically nothing left" to target; timeline shortened; but war duration inherently uncertain; ceasefire could shorten further | partial | 2-4 weeks | - | 2026-03-26 | 2026-03-12 | S012 | - |
| SF005 | Trump demands unconditional surrender — no negotiated ceasefire path | - | action | Public statement on Truth Social; eliminates near-term diplomatic resolution; consistent stance since Mar 6 | confirmed | - | 2026-03-06 | - | 2026-03-12 | S012 | - |
| SF006 | Iran still shipping some oil through Hormuz to China (11.7M bbl) | - | action | Demonstrates blockade is not absolute; but volume is tiny vs 16+ mb/d pre-conflict flow | confirmed | - | 2026-03-01 | - | 2026-03-12 | S014 | - |
| SF007 | New supreme leader (Mojtaba Khamenei) — uncertain impact on war posture | - | action | Named as successor; Trump "not happy"; could extend or shorten war depending on stance; too early to assess | partial | - | 2026-03-11 | - | 2026-03-12 | S002 | - |