| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Instrument | WTICO_USD |
| Price | $93.29/bbl |
| Currency | USD |
| Unit | bbl |
| Timestamp | 2026-03-12T05:08:00Z |
| Trigger | Scheduled point-in-time snapshot |
| Trigger Ref | - |
| id | component | category | value | percent | basis | trend | confidence | references |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PA001 | Strait of Hormuz blockade | supply-disruption | +$27.99 | 30% | 16+ mb/d halted; largest supply disruption in decades; IRGC vows "not a litre" passes | stable | high | - |
| PA002 | IEA 400M barrel reserve release | supply-disruption | -$16.79 | 18% | Largest ever coordinated release; 120-day delivery; US 172M from SPR; failed to cap prices so far | increasing | medium | - |
| PA003 | US war timeline (ongoing, 2-4 weeks remaining) | risk-premium | +$11.19 | 12% | War Day 14; shortened from 4-6 to 2-4 weeks; Trump "practically nothing left"; war still bullish but shortening | decreasing | medium | - |
| PA004 | Iraq production collapse | supply-disruption | +$9.33 | 10% | 4.42→1.2-1.5 mb/d; storage exhausted; restart takes weeks even after Hormuz reopens | stable | high | - |
| PA005 | US labor market deterioration | demand-pull | -$7.46 | 8% | NFP -92K (worst since pandemic); unemployment 4.4%; DOGE layoffs; WTI-specific demand headwind | increasing | medium | - |
| PA006 | Tariff-driven inflation / stagflation | fundamental-premium | -$5.60 | 6% | ISM prices 70.5; tariff pass-through + oil spike = dual inflation; stagflation risk | increasing | medium | - |
| PA007 | Demand destruction at $90+ prices | demand-pull | -$4.66 | 5% | Approaching but not at destruction threshold ($100-110); acts as rally ceiling | increasing | medium | - |
| PA008 | UAE/Kuwait forced output cuts | supply-disruption | +$3.73 | 4% | Storage filling; forced to cut as Hormuz blocks exports | stable | high | - |
| PA009 | US GDP deceleration | demand-pull | -$2.80 | 3% | Q4 2025 at 1.4% vs Q3 4.4%; medium-term demand headwind | stable | medium | - |
| PA010 | EIA crude inventories building | liquidity-discount | -$1.87 | 2% | 3rd consecutive build; Cushing +117K; pre-war domestic dynamics | uncertain | low | - |
| PA011 | Saudi pre-crisis production ramp | supply-disruption | -$0.93 | 1% | 10.882 mb/d provides minor offset via non-Hormuz routes | stable | low | - |
| PA012 | OPEC+ output unwinding | supply-disruption | -$0.93 | 1% | 206K b/d trivial vs 16+ mb/d disruption | stable | low | - |
Residual: $82.09/bbl Validation: Components sum to $11.20 vs actual $93.29. Residual represents the base commodity value (~$67 pre-war equilibrium + structural cost-of-production floor) not captured by the event-driven factor model.
| id | instrument | forecastDate | targetDate | targetTimeframe | compositePrice | compositeLow | compositeHigh | compositeConfidence | status | actualClose | error | errorPercent | references |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PF001 | WTICO_USD | 2026-03-12 | 2026-03-18 | 4 trading days | 99.1 | 72 | 125 | medium | active | - | - | - | PAT001 |
| PF003 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| PF003 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| PF003 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| PF003 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| PF003 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| PF003 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| PF003 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| track | method | predictedPrice | predictedLow | predictedHigh | confidence | weight | reasoning | references |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| fundamental | scenario-weighted | 92.28 | 72 | 125 | medium | 35 | Base $88-100 at 45%, Bull $100-125 at 20%, Bear $72-85 at 35%. Hormuz blockade dominant offset by IEA release and war timeline shortening. WTI partially insulated by US production. | EV001,EV004,EV009 |
| participant | positioning-flow | 100 | 91.5 | 108 | medium-high | 25 | Institutional + commercial hedgers net-long with high conviction. Structural buyers at $76-85 now chasing to $90-95. Speculative shorts being squeezed. Equilibrium at $100. | PO001,PO002,PO003 |
| pattern | technical-level | 106 | 91.5 | 120 | medium | 20 | Double bottom with Wyckoff spring ($76.8), neckline $91.5 broken. Measured move target $106.2. Ascending lows accelerating. S/R trust 0.3, momentum trust 0.9. | - |
| regime | historical-analog | 103 | 72 | 125 | medium | 20 | Supply Shock Breakout Phase 3 plateau. PATH001 target $100-106 (42% prob, alignment 78). Russia-Ukraine 2022 analog sustained $100+ for months. Current disruption 3-5x larger but shorter timeline. | - |
| track | method | predictedPrice | predictedLow | predictedHigh | confidence | weight | reasoning | references |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| fundamental | scenario-weighted | $92.28 | $72.00 | $125.00 | medium | 35 | Base $88-100 at 45%, Bull $100-125 at 20%, Bear $72-85 at 35%. Weighted average $92.28. Hormuz blockade dominant driver offset by IEA 400M release and war timeline shortening. WTI partially insulated by US production but global deficit lifts all benchmarks. | - |
| participant | positioning-flow | $100.00 | $91.50 | $108.00 | medium-high | 25 | Institutional + commercial hedgers dominate, net-long with high conviction. Structural buyers treating $76-85 as accumulation zone, now chasing to $90-95. Speculative shorts being squeezed on Mar 12 surge. Equilibrium target $100 where structural buyer demand meets tactical seller supply. | - |
| pattern | technical-level | $106.00 | $91.50 | $120.00 | medium | 20 | Double bottom with Wyckoff spring ($76.8), neckline break at $91.5 confirmed. Measured move target $106.2. Ascending lows sequence accelerating. V-recovery velocity sustained 48 hours (ratio 2.42). S/R trust 0.3 but momentum trust 0.9 in supply-shock regime. | - |
| regime | historical-analog | $103.00 | $72.00 | $125.00 | medium | 20 | Supply Shock Breakout Phase 3 (supply response). Best path PATH001 plateau at $100-106 (42% probability, alignment 78/100). Russia-Ukraine 2022 analog — Brent sustained above $100 for 16+ weeks despite SPR release. Current disruption 3-5x larger but timeline shorter. | - |