| entity | type | weight | basis | confidence | lastUpdated | references |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV001 | event | 30 | Dominant supply factor; 16+ mb/d halted is the largest supply disruption in decades. WTI less directly exposed than Brent (US domestic production unaffected) but global deficit lifts all benchmarks via arbitrage. Weight lower than Brent's 35% because WTI is partially insulated by US self-sufficiency. | high | 2026-03-12 | EV001,SF001,SF002,SF003 |
| EV004 | event | 18 | Largest ever coordinated release is the primary bearish countervailing force. Failed to sustainably lower prices so far, but 120-day delivery timeline means physical supply arriving over next 4 months. US SPR contribution of 172M bbl directly impacts Cushing/WTI more than Brent. | high | 2026-03-12 | EV004,EV005,EV006 |
| - | event | 12 | Single most important swing factor. If war ends in 2 weeks, Hormuz reopening becomes visible within a month; if 4+ weeks, sustained disruption keeps prices elevated. Shortened from 4-6 weeks (Mar 11) gives bearish optionality. | - | 2026-03-12 | - |
| EV002 | event | 10 | 3+ mb/d lost from Iraq; storage exhausted; further deterioration possible. Second-order effect of Hormuz but independently significant — even if Hormuz reopens, Iraq restart takes weeks. | high | 2026-03-12 | EV002,SF001 |
| EV012 | event | 8 | NFP -92K is a recession signal; directly impacts WTI demand expectations as US-centric benchmark. Combined with 4.4% unemployment, strongest macro demand headwind. | high | 2026-03-12 | EV012 |
| EV014 | event | 6 | ISM prices at 70.5 signals tariff pass-through; oil spike adds second inflation channel. Stagflation uniquely bad — sustains cost-push while destroying demand growth. CPI in-line but predates war. | medium | 2026-03-12 | EV014,EV020 |
| EV015 | event | 5 | WTI at $95 approaching but not at destruction threshold (~$100-110). Brent already tested $120 showing market can rapidly overshoot. Acts as ceiling mechanism on further rallies. | medium | 2026-03-12 | EV015 |
| EV003 | event | 4 | Adds to Gulf shut-in total; forced cuts deepening as storage fills. Incremental to Hormuz headline but separately tracked. | high | 2026-03-12 | EV003 |
| EV013 | event | 3 | Q4 at 1.4% signals fading growth; medium-term WTI demand headwind but secondary to supply crisis. | high | 2026-03-12 | EV013 |
| EV007 | event | 2 | 3rd consecutive build at Cushing; pre-war domestic dynamics. Bearish signal but data predates wartime import disruptions. Next report (Mar 18) will be more informative. | medium | 2026-03-12 | EV007 |
| EV008 | event | 1 | Saudi at 10.882 mb/d provides some offset via non-Hormuz export routes. Minor influence while strait is blocked. | medium | 2026-03-12 | EV008 |
| EV010 | event | 1 | 206K b/d is trivial vs 16+ mb/d disruption; essentially irrelevant in current context. | high | 2026-03-12 | EV010 |
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Overall Bias | Bullish — Hormuz blockade halting 16+ mb/d is the dominant force; IEA 400M release failed to cap prices; double bottom pattern confirmed with measured move to $100-106 |
| Confidence | Medium — structural supply disruption is clear but war timeline compression (2-4 weeks) and record SPR release create credible bearish reversal path; two-sided uncertainty |
| Time Horizon | 2-4 weeks — remaining duration of Hormuz blockade and war; shorter if ceasefire, longer if escalation |
| Key Driver | EV001: Strait of Hormuz blockade — 16+ mb/d halted; IRGC vows total closure; market rejected IEA reserve release as insufficient to offset structural disruption |
| Key Risk | EV009: War ends sooner than expected (Trump 'practically nothing left') + EV004: IEA 400M bbl deliveries begin arriving = rapid bearish reversal to $72-85 |
| rank | id | name | type | why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | EV001 | Strait of Hormuz blockade | unified-event | 30% influence weight. Dominant supply factor; 16+ mb/d halted is the largest supply disruption in decades. WTI less directly exposed than Brent (US domestic production unaffected) but global deficit lifts all benchmarks vi |
| 2 | EV004 | IEA 400M barrel reserve release | unified-event | 18% influence weight. Largest ever coordinated release is the primary bearish countervailing force. Failed to sustainably lower prices so far, but 120-day delivery timeline means physical supply arriving over next 4 months |
| 3 | - | US war timeline shortened (2-4 weeks) | unified-event | 12% influence weight. Single most important swing factor. If war ends in 2 weeks, Hormuz reopening becomes visible within a month; if 4+ weeks, sustained disruption keeps prices elevated. Shortened from 4-6 weeks (Mar 11) |
| 4 | EV002 | Iraq production collapse | unified-event | 10% influence weight. 3+ mb/d lost from Iraq; storage exhausted; further deterioration possible. Second-order effect of Hormuz but independently significant — even if Hormuz reopens, Iraq restart takes weeks. |
| 5 | EV012 | US labor market deterioration | unified-event | 8% influence weight. NFP -92K is a recession signal; directly impacts WTI demand expectations as US-centric benchmark. Combined with 4.4% unemployment, strongest macro demand headwind. |
| scenario | probability | priceTarget | keyAssumption | keyEvents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base: Sustained disruption with partial reserve offset | 45% | $88-100 | Hormuz remains blocked 2-4 more weeks; IEA reserves begin arriving but insufficient to close 6.7 mb/d gap; war ends late March with gradual Hormuz reopening; US economy weakens but avoids recession | EV001,EV004,EV009,EV002 |
| Bull: Extended blockade or escalation | 20% | $100-125 | War extends beyond 4 weeks OR conflict spreads to Saudi/Gulf infrastructure; IEA reserves prove inadequate; mine-clearing delays Hormuz reopening even after ceasefire; new supreme leader takes harder line | EV001,EV002,EV003,EV005 |
| Bear: Rapid war end + reserve flood + recession | 35% | $72-85 | War ends within 2 weeks (Trump "nothing left" signals imminent wind-down); IEA 400M bbl release + rapid Hormuz reopening creates supply glut; US recession confirmed by PCE/NFP follow-through; demand destruction accelerates | EV009,EV004,EV012,EV015 |
| id | risk | trigger | wouldChangeBiasTo | monitoringSignal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R001 | Rapid war conclusion | Trump announces military objectives achieved; Iran signals surrender or negotiation | bearish | Trump/Pentagon statements; Iranian government communications; CENTCOM operational updates |
| R002 | Hormuz reopening ahead of schedule | US mine-clearing succeeds; first tankers transit strait | strongly bearish | CENTCOM shipping advisories; tanker tracking data; war risk insurance rate drops |
| R003 | US recession confirmation | PCE hot (Mar 13) + follow-through from NFP -92K; consumer spending drops; manufacturing contracts | bearish (medium-term) | PCE release tomorrow; next NFP; retail sales; consumer confidence |
| R004 | Conflict escalation to Saudi infrastructure | Houthi or proxy attacks on Saudi oil facilities; war broadens geographically | strongly bullish | Saudi Aramco output reports; Houthi drone/missile activity; CENTCOM statements |
| R005 | IEA reserves deplete faster than expected | Physical drawdown pace exceeds expectations; member countries struggle to meet commitments | bullish | IEA weekly release data; member country compliance reports; Cushing inventory changes |
| R006 | Demand destruction threshold breach | WTI sustains above $100-110 for 1+ week | neutral (self-correcting) | Asian refinery run cuts; EM import data; crack spread compression; US driving data |
| R007 | Iran-China circumvention escalates | More Iranian oil flows through Hormuz to China; other countries follow | bearish | Tanker tracking; China import data; US sanctions enforcement |
| priority | id | item | checkFrequency | nextCheck | triggerCondition |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MP001 | War timeline / ceasefire signals | daily | 2026-03-13 | Any shift from "2-4 more weeks"; Trump/Pentagon announcements; Iran response to "nothing left" claim |
| 2 | MP002 | PCE Price Index release | immediate | 2026-03-13 | Hot print confirms stagflation and tightens demand outlook; cool print reduces recession fear |
| 3 | MP003 | Hormuz blockade status | daily | 2026-03-13 | Any change in tanker transit; mine-clearing progress; IRGC naval activity changes |
| 4 | MP004 | IEA reserve release execution | weekly | 2026-03-19 | First physical deliveries; rate of SPR drawdown; member country compliance |
| 5 | MP005 | EIA weekly petroleum status | weekly | 2026-03-18 | First report to capture wartime import disruptions; draw would confirm physical tightness reaching US |
| 6 | MP006 | Iraq production updates | every 2 days | 2026-03-14 | Fall below 1.2 mb/d signals forced shut-in cascade; reservoir damage risk |
| 7 | MP007 | New supreme leader (Mojtaba Khamenei) stance | daily | 2026-03-13 | Statements on war continuation, negotiation willingness, IRGC alignment |
| 8 | MP008 | VIX and equity correlation | daily | 2026-03-13 | VIX above 35 or equity crash >5% signals macro contagion to oil demand; SPX below 6500 would be significant |