WTI Oil — Trading Opportunities

2 opportunity file(s)

OPP-2026-03-09T02-02-00Z

Opportunity: LONG WTI Oil @ $95-$103 (pullback entry)

Field	Value
ID	OPP-2026-03-09T02-02-00Z
Asset	WTI Oil
Instrument	WTICO_USD
Direction	LONG
Score	42
Current Price	$114.00
Entry Zone Low	$95.00
Entry Zone High	$103.00
Primary Target	$125.00
Secondary Target	$135.00
Stop Loss	$88.00
Invalidation	$85.00 (below this = ceasefire confirmed or SPR release underway)
Risk/Reward	1:2.9 (risk $12 from $100 entry to $88 stop vs reward $25 to $125 target)
Time Window	1-3 trading days for entry; 2-4 weeks to target
Analysis Date	2026-03-08
Status	active

Score Breakdown

component	points	max	rationale
Zone Extremity	0	40	Current price ($114) is in core zone. Opportunity is a pullback entry — score reflects the ENTRY zone ($95-$103) which is in the extended-low zone. Score would be 20 if price reaches entry zone.
Level Convergence	15	15	Strong level convergence: $102.26 gap base + $100 psychological + $91.50 gap fill create layered support in the entry zone. Three independent technical levels within a 12% band.
Regime Confirmation	12	15	Supply Shock Breakout with 95/100 match score. Phase 2 active. Regime strongly supports bullish direction. Slight deduction because parabolic phase is late-stage.
Participant Alignment	10	15	Institutional net-long from $75-$80, would likely add on pullback to $95-$105. Commercial hedging would ease on pullback, reducing sell pressure. Spec momentum would reset.
Overshoot Present	5	15	No overshoot at current price — price is within core range. Score reflects anticipated overshoot potential on pullback (blow-off top reversal to $95-$103 would be temporary overshoot below fair value).
Total	42	100

Entry Conditions

DO — Enter when:

1. Price pulls back to $95-$103 (extended-low zone) following blow-off top reversal or profit-taking cascade 2. An H4 candle closes with a bullish reversal pattern (hammer, engulfing) at or near $100-$103 support 3. Hormuz blockade remains active and no ceasefire has been announced at time of entry

DON'T — Stay out when:

1. Price is above $110 — at current $114, the risk/reward for new longs is poor (too close to measured move resistance at $115-$118) 2. Trump rhetoric shifts toward negotiation or "deal" language — indicates potential ceasefire that would collapse premium 3. White House reverses SPR position — SPR release would directly hit WTI through PADD III corridor

Invalidation

Price closes below $85.00 on a daily basis, indicating either: (a) ceasefire/Hormuz reopening confirmed, or (b) coordinated SPR + IEA release overwhelming the supply gap. Below $85 the war premium structure is broken and the fundamental case shifts to bearish.

Trigger Conditions (for daemon)

Entry Trigger

```js // Fires when price enters the pullback entry zone (price) => price <= 103.00 ```

Exit Trigger — Primary Target

```js (price) => price >= 125.00 ```

Exit Trigger — Secondary Target

```js (price) => price >= 135.00 ```

Stop Loss Trigger

```js (price) => price <= 88.00 ```

Evidence Chain

source	finding	supports
fundamental/result.md	Bias bullish, high confidence. Base case $110-$125 (55%). Hormuz blockade 35% weight. No SPR/IEA intervention.	Pullback to $95-$103 would be below fair value center ($118) while fundamental drivers remain intact
technical/patterns.md	Measured move at $115.60 being tested. Blow-off top forming. Parabolic advance with low reliability. No tested support between $73 and $102.	Pullback to $100-$103 gap base is the first tested support level. Entry here has technical structure.
technical/velocity.md	Velocity ratio 4.11 in blowoff phase — unsustainable. Historical >80% failure rate for parabolic advances within 2-4 weeks.	Pullback is likely. The question is when and how deep. $95-$103 provides sufficient margin.
technical/result.md	60-65% probability of reversal scenario. Reversal velocity would match advance velocity (-$5 to -$10/4hr).	Fast reversal to entry zone is plausible within 1-5 days of trigger.
regime/result.md	Supply Shock Breakout Phase 2. PATH001 targets $125-$135. 90 alignment score. Regime supports bullish direction.	On pullback, the regime structure remains intact if Hormuz is still blocked. Price would be at a discount to regime target.

Risk Assessment

The primary risk is that the pullback entry zone ($95-$103) may never be reached if the war escalates further and price continues to $125+ without correcting. In that case, this opportunity expires unused — no loss, just missed opportunity. The secondary risk is that a pullback to $95-$103 is caused by a fundamental change (ceasefire, SPR release) rather than technical profit-taking, in which case the entry thesis is invalidated and the stop at $88 would be hit. The DON'T conditions are designed to filter for this: only enter the pullback if the Hormuz blockade is still active and no policy intervention has been announced. The risk/reward of 1:2.9 compensates for the uncertainty in a supply shock regime.

Note on current price: At $114, initiating a new long position is NOT recommended. The parabolic advance has moved +70% in 10 days with no meaningful pullback. Velocity is unsustainable. Measured move resistance at $115-$118. The opportunity is a conditional pullback entry that waits for the parabolic advance to exhaust before entering at a structurally sound level.

OPP-2026-03-12T05-30-00Z

Opportunity: LONG WTI Oil @ $91.50-$82.00 (tiered limit entries)

Field	Value
ID	OPP-2026-03-12T05-30-00Z
Asset	WTI Oil
Instrument	WTICO_USD
Direction	LONG
Aggregate Kelly	0.480
Win Probability	55%
Current Price	$93.29
Included Tiers	T2, T3, T4
Primary Target	$103.00
Secondary Target	$106.00
Stop Loss	$81.00 (T2/T3), $76.80 (T4)
Invalidation	$76.80 (H4 close below spring low = thesis dead)
Time Window	6-10 trading days (primary) / 10-15 trading days (secondary)
Active Pattern	-
Analysis Date	2026-03-12
Status	active

Kelly Analysis

Win Probability

Field	Value
Win Probability (W)	55%
Derivation	HP1 (40%) fully + HP2 (20% x 0.75 credit) = 55% patterns reaching $103
Losing Patterns	MP2 (10%) + LP1 (10%) + LP2 (2%) + None-fit (3%) = 25%
Note	MP1 (15%) excluded — resolves at $95-98 < $103 target. HP2 credited at 75% because $103 is at upper bound not center.

Per-Tier Kelly

tier	entry	stop	target	R/R	kelly	half_kelly	budget	units	status
T1	$93.29	$81.00	$103.00	0.790	-0.020	0	$0	0	EXCLUDED — negative edge at current price
T2	$91.50	$81.00	$103.00	1.095	0.139	0.070	$700	7	INCLUDED
T3	$87.00	$81.00	$103.00	2.667	0.381	0.191	$1,910	21	INCLUDED
T4	$82.00	$76.80	$103.00	4.038	0.439	0.219	$2,190	26	INCLUDED

Aggregate

Field	Value
Aggregate Kelly	0.480
Total Planned Units	54
Bankroll	$10,000
Total Budget Deployed	$4,800 (48.0% of bankroll)
Max Margin	$229.98 / $50,000.00

---

Time Window Derivation

Velocity-Based Calculation

metric	value	source
Current phase avg up velocity	$0.875/hr	technical/velocity.md — war rally phase
Current phase avg down velocity	$0.361/hr	technical/velocity.md — derived from ratio 2.42
Velocity ratio	2.42	Up-biased — strong bullish momentum
Up-fraction	0.708	ratio / (1 + ratio) = 2.42 / 3.42
Down-fraction	0.292	1 - up_fraction
Net hourly progress	$0.514/hr	(0.708 x $0.875) - (0.292 x $0.361)
Theoretical daily max	$11.31/day	$0.514 x 22 trading hours
Realistic daily estimate	$3.00-$5.00/day	Theoretical x 0.27-0.44 (consolidation adjustment)
Empirical cross-check	~$3.50/day	War rally: $76.80 to $93.29 = $16.49 over ~5 days

Arrival times (from T2 entry at $91.50):

target	distance	at_conservative ($3/day)	at_aggressive ($5/day)	with_consolidation
Primary ($103.00)	$11.50	3.8 days	2.3 days	4-6 trading days
Secondary ($106.00)	$14.50	4.8 days	2.9 days	5-8 trading days

Arrival times (from T3 entry at $87.00):

target	distance	at_conservative ($3/day)	at_aggressive ($5/day)	with_consolidation
Primary ($103.00)	$16.00	5.3 days	3.2 days	6-8 trading days
Secondary ($106.00)	$19.00	6.3 days	3.8 days	7-10 trading days

Arrival times (from T4 entry at $82.00):

target	distance	at_conservative ($3/day)	at_aggressive ($5/day)	with_consolidation
Primary ($103.00)	$21.00	7.0 days	4.2 days	8-12 trading days
Secondary ($106.00)	$24.00	8.0 days	4.8 days	10-15 trading days

Product Trading Pattern

WTI Oil (WTICO_USD) trades nearly 24 hours, 5 days/week with brief maintenance windows.

Session structure:

**Asian session (00:00-08:00 UTC):** Thin liquidity. Stop-hunting and wick-driven moves common. Best window for limit order fills at T3/T4 levels.
**London session (08:00-12:00 UTC):** Rising liquidity. Directional moves initiate here. Watch for gap fills from Asian session extremes.
**NY session (12:00-20:00 UTC):** Peak liquidity. Largest directional moves. EIA inventory data (Wednesday 14:30 UTC) is the key intra-session catalyst.
**Post-NY (20:00-00:00 UTC):** Declining liquidity. Consolidation. Weekend positioning adjustments on Fridays.

Key data releases during window:

release	timing	expected_impact	action
EIA Crude Inventory	Wed 14:30 UTC weekly	$2-4 move on surprise	Pre-position limit orders. Do not chase post-release. Large draws are bullish (supply tight).
IEA Monthly Report	Mid-month (expected Mar 12-15)	$3-5 if reserve release announced	Monitor headlines. Release announcement = reassess all entries.
US CPI / Macro	Various	$1-2 indirect via USD	Limited direct impact on WTI in supply shock regime.
War / Ceasefire headlines	Random	$5-15 binary	None-fit protocol if ceasefire confirmed. Hold if escalation.

Weekend gap risk: Gap history during supply shock: $2-5 average gap on Monday open. War headline risk is elevated over weekends. Position sizing rule: hold full position over weekend ONLY if no ceasefire rumor activity on Friday. If ceasefire rumor on Friday, reduce to 50% before close.

Maximum hold: 20 trading days (4 calendar weeks) — exit remaining position regardless. Beyond this, the Phase 3 supply response thesis is exhausted and holding increases binary event exposure without proportional reward.

---

Tiered Entry Strategy

tier	entry_price	S/R_basis	fill_probability	R/R_primary	R/R_secondary	allocation
T1: Market	$93.29	Current price	95%	0.790	1.036	EXCLUDED
T2: Pullback	$91.50	Double bottom neckline pivot	35-50%	1.095	1.381	14.6% ($700)
T3: Deep pullback	$87.00	Ascending lows / emerging demand zone	15-25%	2.667	3.167	39.8% ($1,910)
T4: Extreme	$82.00	Triple-tested base / accumulation floor	5-10%	4.038	4.615	45.6% ($2,190)

Weighted avg entry (T2+T3, most likely scenario): $88.12 — R/R: 1.838 (primary) / 2.210 (secondary) Weighted avg entry (all tiers fill): $85.85 — R/R: 2.420 (primary) / 2.843 (secondary)

Tier Execution Rules

T1 — Market Entry (EXCLUDED)

Kelly = -0.020 (negative edge). Do NOT enter at market price.
If price moves above $95 without pulling back, accept the miss — no FOMO entry.

T2 — Neckline Pullback (fill prob: 35-50%)

Execute: Place GTC limit BUY 7 units at $91.50 immediately upon opportunity activation
Expected timing: 1-3 trading days. Most likely during Asian session thin liquidity or post-EIA inventory surprise.
Cancel if: H4 close below $88.00 (ascending lows structure broken — wait for T3 instead)
Cancel if: Ceasefire confirmed (thesis invalidated)

T3 — Deep Pullback (fill prob: 15-25%)

Execute: Place GTC limit BUY 21 units at $87.00 immediately upon opportunity activation
Expected timing: 3-7 trading days, only on negative catalyst (IEA release rumor, partial de-escalation)
Cancel if: H4 close below $84.00 (ascending lows invalidated, but keep T4 for capitulation entry)
Cancel if: Ceasefire confirmed

T4 — Extreme Entry (fill prob: 5-10%)

Execute: Place GTC limit BUY 26 units at $82.00 immediately upon opportunity activation
Expected timing: 5-12 trading days, only on genuine fear event (ceasefire rumor + panic selling)
Cancel if: H4 close below $76.80 — IMMEDIATE. Thesis dead. Spring low broken = full structural failure.
Note: T4 uses wider stop ($76.80 vs $81.00) because this level only fills on extreme fear — the stop must be below structural support to avoid being stopped out on the very move that fills the order.

Exit Ladder

exit_tier	price	S/R_basis	action	position_pct
E1	$96.00	Current resistance test ($95-96)	Partial profit — lock in gains, reduce risk	15%
E2	$100.00	Psychological level + gap base ($100-103 zone entry)	Major partial — reward captured at round number	25%
E3	$103.00	Primary target — regime plateau midpoint	Core exit — thesis fulfilled	30%
E4	$106.00	Secondary target — full measured move ($106.2)	Extended target — double bottom resolution	20%
E5	$106.00+	Trailing stop -$3.00 from high	Capture extreme moves — trailing for PATH002 upside	10%

Exit tiers total 100%. E5 trailing stop activates only after E4 is reached. If E4 is never reached, E5's 10% exits at the maximum hold deadline.

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Chart Pattern Pre-Prediction

High Probability Patterns (60%)

HP1: Double Bottom Measured Move to $100-106 (probability: 40%)

What it looks like: Price consolidates at $91-95 for 2-4 days (neckline retest / base-building), then breaks above $95-96 resistance on increasing volume. Steady advance $2-3/day through $100 psychological to $103-106 measured move target. Classic "retest and go" pattern from confirmed double bottom.

Identification criteria (must see 3 of 4): 1. H4 candle range narrows to <$1.50 for 3+ consecutive candles (consolidation at $91-95) 2. Volume on the breakout H4 candle above $96 exceeds 1.5x the 20-period H4 volume average 3. No H4 close below $91.00 during consolidation (neckline holds) 4. Velocity increases to >$0.60/hr on the breakout candle (resumption of trending momentum)

Expected resolution: $103-106 within 6-10 trading days from breakout. Initial target $100 (psychological), then $103 (plateau midpoint), then $106 (full measured move).

Trade management:

Hold all filled tiers. Add to T2 if not yet filled and price retests $91.50 during consolidation.
Move T2 stop to breakeven ($91.50) once price closes above $96.
Move T3 stop to $87.00 (entry) once price closes above $100.
Take E1 (15%) at $96, E2 (25%) at $100, E3 (30%) at $103.
Cancel T3/T4 limit orders if not filled once price closes above $96 (pullback window closed).

HP2: War-Premium Plateau Formation $95-103 (probability: 20%)

What it looks like: Price oscillates in a $95-103 range for 1-2 weeks, forming a plateau as the market digests the supply shock. No clean breakout — instead, choppy price action between $95 support and $103 resistance. Volume declines gradually as the range tightens.

Identification criteria (must see 3 of 4): 1. Price reverses at least 2x from both $95 and $103 within 5 trading days 2. Daily range contracts from $4+ to $2-3 by end of first week 3. Volume declines 20%+ from the war-rally peak over 5 trading days 4. H4 velocity drops below $0.40/hr (deceleration from trending to ranging)

Expected resolution: Eventually resolves upward to $103-106 on catalyst (escalation news, inventory draw), but timing is uncertain — 10-15 trading days. Can also resolve downward to $88-91 if ceasefire rumors emerge.

Trade management:

Hold T2 if filled. Partial exit E1 (15%) at $96 during range tests.
Do NOT add positions during plateau — R/R is poor in a range.
Tighten T2 stop to $89.00 after 7 trading days in range (time decay on thesis).
If plateau breaks above $103, resume exit ladder (E3, E4, E5).
If plateau breaks below $91, exit T2 at market — thesis degraded, wait for T3.

Medium Probability Patterns (25%)

MP1: Ascending Lows Stall at $95-98 (probability: 15%)

What it looks like: Price forms another higher low (after $76.8 → $81.9 → $89.2 → $93+) but stalls at $95-98 resistance. Momentum fades but structure remains bullish. Slow grind rather than breakout.

Identification criteria (must see 3 of 4): 1. Price makes 2+ attempts at $95-98 resistance without closing above $98 on H4 2. Each pullback forms a higher low (e.g., $93 → $94 → $94.50) — ascending triangle 3. H4 velocity declines to $0.30-0.50/hr (momentum fading but still up-biased) 4. Spec short covering slows (visible in reduced upside wicks on H4)

Expected resolution: Eventual breakout above $98 to $100-103 within 8-12 trading days — OR range break downward to $91-93 if catalyst disappears. $103 primary target is reachable but timeline extends.

Trade management:

Hold T2 if filled — ascending structure supports the position.
Reduce position 25% if no breakout above $98 after 7 trading days (time decay).
Move stop to $91.00 (below ascending lows structure).
Keep T3/T4 limit orders active — a fake breakdown could fill them at superior R/R.

MP2: Broadening Range Contraction $88-96 (probability: 10%)

What it looks like: Price fails at $95-96 resistance and retraces to $88-91, then bounces. Subsequent rally fails at $94-95 (lower high), pullback holds $89-90 (higher low). Range contracts toward a triangle apex around $91-93.

Identification criteria (must see 3 of 4): 1. H4 close below $91.50 neckline but immediately reverses above within 2 H4 candles 2. Lower high forms below $95 on the next rally attempt 3. Higher low forms above $89 on the next pullback 4. H4 range contracts to <$1.00 near the triangle apex

Expected resolution: Breakout direction uncertain — 60/40 upward bias given fundamental backdrop. If up, targets $100-103. If down, targets $84-87. Resolution in 7-12 trading days.

Trade management:

T2 filled, likely underwater initially. Hold if neckline retest reverses quickly (within 2 H4 candles).
T3 may fill on the pullback leg ($87) — excellent R/R if triangle resolves up.
If triangle resolves downward (H4 close below $88), exit T2 at market. Hold T3 only if stop ($81) not hit.
Move T2 stop to $87.00 once triangle pattern is confirmed (tighter risk management).

Low Probability Patterns (12%)

LP1: Blow-Off Retest to $76-84 on Ceasefire Rumor (probability: 10%)

What it looks like: Ceasefire rumor or partial de-escalation causes rapid selloff. Price drops $8-15 in 1-3 trading days, retesting the $76-84 range where the original spring/accumulation occurred. The move is fear-driven and may overshoot fundamental value.

Identification criteria (must see 2 of 3): 1. Daily range expands to >$8 (panic selling, 2x+ normal range) 2. Price gaps through $91.50 neckline AND $87 emerging support on a single H4 candle 3. Headlines confirm ceasefire negotiations or Hormuz partial reopening

Expected resolution: If ceasefire is RUMOR only (not confirmed): V-bounce back to $88-93 within 3-5 days. If ceasefire is CONFIRMED: further decline to $72-78, no bounce — this is the new fair value.

Trade management:

T2 stopped out at $81.00 (loss: -$73.50 on 7 units). T3 stopped out at $81.00 (loss: -$126.00 on 21 units).
T4 fills at $82.00 — but ONLY hold if ceasefire is RUMOR, not confirmed.
If ceasefire confirmed: cancel T4 immediately (or exit at market if already filled). Full thesis invalidation.
If rumor only: T4 fills, ride the V-bounce. Target $91-95 for T4 exit (reduced target, faster timeline).
Total max loss on T2+T3: $199.50 (4.0% of bankroll).

LP2: Flash Crash Through All Support (probability: 2%)

What it looks like: Black swan event — coordinated SPR release + ceasefire + demand collapse. Price crashes through $76.80 spring low, all support is irrelevant. No orderly decline — gaps and limit-down moves.

Identification criteria (ANY ONE): 1. Price gaps below $76.80 on market open 2. H4 candle range exceeds $12 (3x+ normal, liquidity vacuum) 3. Multiple correlated assets crash simultaneously (equities, other commodities)

Expected resolution: Impossible to predict. Could stabilize at $65-70 or continue lower. This is outside the analyzed probability distribution.

Trade management:

All stops hit. T2 stopped at $81.00, T3 stopped at $81.00, T4 stopped at $76.80.
Total max loss: $199.50 (T2+T3) + $135.20 (T4) = $334.70 (3.3% of bankroll).
No re-entry. Flat book. Reassess from scratch with new analysis.

None-Fit Protocol — Extreme Event -> Full Exit

Definition: Price action does NOT match ANY pre-predicted pattern. An event has occurred outside the analyzed probability distribution.

None-fit identification (ANY ONE is sufficient): 1. Velocity anomaly: H4 velocity exceeds $2.50/hr (3x current phase peak of $0.875/hr) in either direction for 3+ consecutive candles 2. Volume anomaly: Daily volume exceeds 3x the recent peak (indicates market-structure-changing event — institutional liquidation or massive new positioning) 3. Gap through multiple S/R: Price gaps through 2+ key S/R levels simultaneously ($91.50 neckline + $87 emerging support, or $96 resistance + $100 psychological) 4. Pattern contradiction: Bullish and bearish signals simultaneously — e.g., new high followed by gap below neckline within same session 5. Regime path total failure: Price falls outside ALL regime path ranges simultaneously (below PATH003 floor of $72 or above PATH002 ceiling of $125)

Action: FULL POSITION EXIT within 1 H4 candle. Do not rationalize. Do not average. Do not wait. Exit at market, accept result, reassess from flat.

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Trade Management — Day-by-Day

Day 1 (Thursday Mar 12)

open_scenario	price_range	interpretation	action
Gap up	above $95.00	Breakout toward resistance	Do NOT chase. T1 excluded. Monitor for HP2 plateau formation. Keep T2-T4 limit orders active.
Continuation	$92.00-$95.00	Neutral, within recent range	Place T2 ($91.50), T3 ($87.00), T4 ($82.00) limit orders. Monitor H4 momentum.
Pullback	$90.00-$92.00	Neckline approach — T2 in play	T2 may fill. Watch for neckline bounce. Do not move stops.
Gap down	below $90.00	Catalyst-driven decline	Check headlines immediately. If ceasefire rumor: reduce T4 size or cancel. If normal pullback: hold all orders.

Volume threshold: Daily volume >50K contracts for pattern confirmation on any move. Below 30K = thin-market noise, ignore.

Days 2-3 (Friday Mar 13 — Monday Mar 16)

Pattern identification phase:

By end of Day 3, one of HP1/HP2/MP1/MP2 should be identifiable
Check: Is price holding above $91.50? (HP1/HP2 base forming) Or breaking below? (MP2/LP1 developing)
Check: Is volume increasing (directional move) or declining (consolidation)?
Friday close is critical: evaluate weekend hold. If ceasefire rumor active, reduce position 50%.
Monday open: check for gap. If gap >$3, reassess pattern. If gap through $91.50 neckline, accelerate pattern identification.

Data release: EIA Crude Inventory (Wednesday Mar 18 — falls in Days 4-7 window, but watch for API Tuesday evening preview)

Days 4-7 (Tuesday Mar 17 — Friday Mar 20)

Pattern resolution — primary target approach:

If HP1 confirmed: price should be approaching $96-100. Take E1 (15%) at $96.
Move T2 stop to breakeven ($91.50) once $96 cleared on H4 close.
EIA Wednesday: if bullish draw, acceleration toward $100-103. Take E2 (25%) at $100.
If MP1/MP2 developing: patience. Hold positions, do not add. Tighten T2 stop to $89.
If LP1 developing: stops may be hit. Accept loss. Do not average down beyond T3/T4 limits.
Cancel T3/T4 if not filled and price is above $95 (pullback window closed).

Stop-trail rules:

After $96 reached: T2 stop -> $91.50 (breakeven), T3 stop -> $84.00
After $100 reached: T2 stop -> $95.00, T3 stop -> $87.00 (breakeven)

Days 8+ (Week 2+)

Secondary target and trailing:

If primary $103 reached: take E3 (30%). Move all stops to $98.
If $106 reached: take E4 (20%). Activate E5 trailing stop (-$3 from high) for remaining 10%.
If price stalls in $100-106 plateau (HP2): take E3 at $103, hold remainder with stop at $98.
Maximum hold: Day 20. Exit all remaining position at market regardless of price. Thesis expired.

Weekend/Event Risk

Weekend hold rule:

Hold full position over weekend UNLESS ceasefire rumor is active on Friday afternoon (after 16:00 UTC)
If ceasefire rumor active: close 50% of position before Friday NY close (20:00 UTC)
Monday gap risk: $2-5 average during supply shock. Acceptable given stop placement.

Binary event monitoring:

Hormuz status: any reopening announcement = reassess all tiers within 1 H4 candle
IEA reserve release: if >2M barrels/day announced = tighten all stops by $3
War escalation (new fronts): bullish for position — hold and consider extending targets

---

Entry Conditions

DO — Enter when:

1. Price reaches $91.50 (T2 limit fill) — confirmed by neckline test with no H4 close below $88 2. Price reaches $87.00 (T3 limit fill) — only if ascending lows structure intact (no H4 close below $84) 3. Price reaches $82.00 (T4 limit fill) — only if spring low $76.80 holds on H4 close basis 4. Hormuz blockade remains active at time of fill (check headlines before confirming order) 5. Volume on the pullback is declining (orderly retreat, not panic liquidation)

DON'T — Stay out when:

1. Ceasefire confirmed or Hormuz reopening announced — cancel ALL unfilled orders immediately 2. H4 close below $76.80 — cancel T4, exit any filled positions at market (spring low broken = structural failure) 3. IEA announces >3M b/d coordinated release — fundamental case shifts bearish, reassess from flat 4. Price is above $95 and rising — T1 excluded by Kelly; do not FOMO into a market entry 5. Flash crash pattern (LP2) developing — daily range >$8, multiple S/R gaps — exit everything

Invalidation

Primary: H4 close below $76.80 (spring low). This is the absolute structural floor from the Wyckoff accumulation. Below this, the double bottom pattern is negated and the entire bullish thesis collapses. Secondary: Daily close below $81.00 for T2/T3 positions — this is the practical stop level based on triple-tested support.

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Trigger Conditions (for daemon)

Entry Triggers

```js // T1: Market entry — EXCLUDED (negative Kelly) // No trigger — do not enter at market

// T2: Neckline pullback (price) => price <= 91.50

// T3: Deep pullback to ascending lows (price) => price <= 87.00

// T4: Extreme entry at triple-tested base (price) => price <= 82.00 ```

Exit Triggers

```js // E1: Partial profit at current resistance (price) => price >= 96.00

// E2: Psychological level + gap base (price) => price >= 100.00

// E3: Primary target — regime plateau midpoint (price) => price >= 103.00

// E4: Secondary target — full measured move (price) => price >= 106.00

// E5: Trailing stop — activates after E4, trails -$3 from high // Implemented as dynamic trailing in daemon, not static trigger ```

Stop / Invalidation Triggers

```js // T2/T3 stop — triple-tested support break (H4 close basis) (price) => price <= 81.00

// T4 stop — spring low break (H4 close basis) (price) => price <= 76.80

// Emergency stop — intraday breach below structural floor (price) => price <= 75.00 ```

---

Evidence Chain

source	finding	supports
fundamental/result.md	Bias bullish, medium confidence. Base $88-100 (45%), Bull $100-125 (20%). Hormuz blockade 30% influence weight.	Direction (LONG), primary target ($103 within base-bull overlap), time window (2-4 week horizon)
fundamental/result.md	Bear scenario $72-85 (35%). War ends + IEA reserves = bearish reversal.	Stop placement ($81.00 within bear range), T4 entry ($82.00 at bear case floor), invalidation ($76.80)
technical/result.md	Bias bullish, medium-high confidence. Velocity $0.875/hr, 7x pre-war. Upside targets $100-103, $106-108.	Primary target ($103), secondary target ($106), time window velocity calculation
technical/patterns.md	Double bottom confirmed, target $106.2. S/R: $76.80 spring, $81-82 triple-tested, $91.50 neckline, $95-96 resistance.	Tier entry levels (T2=$91.50 neckline, T3=$87 emerging, T4=$82 triple-tested), exit ladder ($96, $100, $103, $106)
technical/patterns.md	S/R trust = 0.3, momentum trust = 0.9. Ascending lows confirmed.	Low S/R trust = wider stops needed. High momentum trust = velocity-based time windows are reliable.
technical/participants.md	Institutional net-long (accumulation + recovery). Spec net-short (being squeezed).	Participant alignment supports pullback buying (institutional bids at $87-91), short-squeeze fuel for upside
regime/result.md	Supply Shock Breakout Phase 3. PATH001 plateau $100-106 (42%). Invalidation $76.80.	Regime confirms primary target zone, extends time window, provides invalidation level
regime/paths.md	PATH002 escalation $115-125 (12%), PATH003 normalization $72-82 (23%).	E5 trailing stop captures PATH002 upside. PATH003 probability informs stop placement and Kelly W.
kelly-analysis.md	Aggregate Kelly 0.480. T1 excluded (kelly = -0.020). T2-T4 included with half_kelly 0.070/0.191/0.219.	Tier exclusion (no market entry), per-tier sizing ($700/$1,910/$2,190), total deployment ($4,800 = 48% bankroll)

Risk Assessment

Primary risk: Ceasefire / Hormuz reopening collapses the war premium. The entire bullish thesis rests on the Hormuz blockade sustaining 16+ mb/d supply disruption. A ceasefire would remove the supply shock premium rapidly — price could drop $15-25 in 2-3 days. Per-tier loss estimates: T2 ($91.50 entry, $81 stop) = -$73.50 on 7 units. T3 ($87 entry, $81 stop) = -$126 on 21 units. T4 ($82 entry, $76.80 stop) = -$135.20 on 26 units. Maximum total loss if all tiers fill and all stops hit: $334.70 (3.3% of bankroll). The DON'T conditions and none-fit protocol protect against this — cancel orders on ceasefire confirmation.

Secondary risk: IEA coordinated reserve release overwhelms demand. IEA release of 2-3M b/d would partially offset the blockade, pushing price toward $85-90. This would stop out T2 and T3 but T4 might survive. The risk is that IEA release is announced as a surprise (no warning), leaving no time to adjust orders. Mitigation: monitor IEA meeting schedule and member country statements. Tighten stops $3 on any IEA release headline.

Tertiary risk: Demand destruction from high prices reduces oil consumption. At $93+, demand destruction begins in emerging markets. This is a slow-burn risk (weeks, not days) that gradually compresses the upside target. Probability of this materially affecting the 2-4 week trade window is low (<15%). Mitigation: if primary target $103 is not reached within 15 trading days, exit at market — demand destruction may be capping price.

Kelly note: T1 exclusion (kelly = -0.020) means no capital is deployed at current price — the opportunity only activates on pullbacks. This is conservative but correct: at $93.29 with stop at $81, the R/R of 0.79 does not justify entry even at 55% win probability. The aggregate Kelly of 0.480 across T2-T4 reflects strong edge at lower entry levels, but actual deployment depends on whether pullbacks materialize. Expected deployment: T2 only (35-50% chance) = $700. T2+T3 (15-25% chance) = $2,610. All tiers (5-10% chance) = $4,800. Probability-weighted expected deployment: ~$1,200-$1,800.