| id | name | parent | category | temporalState | realizationStatus | value | trend | significance | direction | magnitude | duration | probability | confidence | date | startDate | projectedEnd | leadTime | leadTimeBasis | sourceType | lastUpdated | topics | sources | evidenceFor | evidenceAgainst | leadTimeEvidence | references |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV001 | Hormuz Strait full blockade | - | supply | present | confirmed | ~6-7 mb/d of oil transit halted; <10% pre-conflict flows; Iran actively mining strait and attacking ships | stable | high | bullish | major | sustained | - | high | 2026-03-12 | 2026-02-28 | 2026-03-26 | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-12 | hormuz,blockade,iran,supply-disruption,war | S001,S002,S003 | SF001,SF002,SF003,SF004,SF005 | - | - | EV002,EV003,EV005 |
| EV002 | Iraq production collapse | EV001 | supply | present | confirmed | Production fell from 4.42 mb/d to 1.2-1.5 mb/d; storage full; exports near-zero via Gulf | deteriorating | high | bullish | major | sustained | - | high | 2026-03-12 | 2026-03-01 | 2026-04-15 | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-12 | iraq,production-collapse,supply-disruption | S004 | SF006,SF007,SF008 | - | - | EV001 |
| EV003 | UAE/Kuwait output cuts | EV001 | supply | present | confirmed | Combined ~5.5 mb/d pre-war production being cut; cannot export via Hormuz | deteriorating | high | bullish | major | sustained | - | high | 2026-03-12 | 2026-03-07 | 2026-04-15 | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-12 | uae,kuwait,production-cut,hormuz | S005 | - | - | - | EV001 |
| EV004 | IEA 400M barrel reserve release | - | supply | present | confirmed | 400M bbl release agreed; US contributing 172M; largest ever IEA coordinated action; starts next week | accelerating | high | bearish | major | short | - | high | 2026-03-11 | 2026-03-11 | 2026-05-10 | 7d | Releases start next week per DOE | llm-search | 2026-03-12 | iea,spr,reserve-release,policy-response | S006,S007,S008 | SF009,SF010,SF011,SF012,SF013 | - | DOE announcement confirmed start date | EV001,EV008 |
| EV005 | Qatar LNG facility attacked — halted | EV001 | supply | present | confirmed | Qatar LNG export facility hit by Iranian drone; ~20% global LNG flows halted; restart weeks not days | stable | high | bullish | major | sustained | - | high | 2026-03-09 | 2026-03-09 | 2026-04-30 | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-12 | qatar,lng,drone-attack,gas-disruption | S009 | - | - | - | EV001,EV015 |
| EV006 | US domestic crude builds (+3.8M) | - | supply | past | confirmed | +3.824M bbl to 443.1M total; 3rd consecutive build; Cushing +117K | increasing | low | bearish | minor | transient | - | high | 2026-03-11 | 2026-03-06 | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-12 | eia,inventory,crude-build,us-domestic | S010 | - | - | - | - |
| EV007 | OPEC+ 206K b/d output unwinding (April) | - | supply | future | registered | 206K b/d increase from 8 countries starting April; trivial vs Hormuz disruption | stable | low | bearish | minor | short | - | high | 2026-04-01 | 2026-04-01 | - | 20d | OPEC Mar 1 decision | llm-search | 2026-03-12 | opec,production-unwinding | S011 | - | - | - | - |
| EV008 | Trump signals war ending "soon" (2-4 weeks) | - | supply | present | confirmed | Trump says 'practically nothing left' to target; 'soon' but no timeline; 2-4 week analyst estimate | accelerating | high | bearish | major | short | - | medium | 2026-03-11 | 2026-03-11 | 2026-03-26 | 14d | Analyst estimate from 'practically nothing left' + 'soon' rhetoric | llm-search | 2026-03-12 | ceasefire,war-timeline,trump,de-escalation | S012,S013 | SF014,SF015 | SF016,SF017 | Trump 'soon' rhetoric; Hegseth '2 more weeks' estimate; war Day 14 | EV001,EV004 |
| EV009 | US labor market deterioration (NFP -92K, UE 4.4%) | EV016 | demand | past | confirmed | NFP -92K (vs +55K expected); worst since pandemic; UE jumped to 4.4% | deteriorating | high | bearish | moderate | sustained | - | high | 2026-03-06 | 2026-02-28 | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-12 | employment,recession,labor-market,nfp | S014 | SF018,SF019,SF020 | - | - | EV010,EV016 |
| EV010 | US GDP deceleration (Q4: 1.4%) | EV016 | demand | past | confirmed | Q4 2025 GDP advance: 1.4% vs 4.4% in Q3; sharp deceleration | deteriorating | high | bearish | moderate | sustained | - | high | 2026-02-20 | 2025-10-01 | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-12 | gdp,recession,growth-slowdown | S015 | SF021 | - | - | EV016 |
| EV011 | ISM Manufacturing Prices surge (70.5) | EV016 | demand | past | confirmed | ISM Manufacturing Prices 70.5 (vs 59.0 expected); highest since 2022; tariff-driven | accelerating | medium | bearish | moderate | short | - | high | 2026-03-03 | 2026-02-01 | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-12 | inflation,tariffs,manufacturing,input-costs | S016 | SF022 | - | - | EV016 |
| EV012 | Oil-equity negative correlation strengthening | EV016 | demand | present | confirmed | Oil-equity negative correlation strengthening; oil surge crushing equities via inflation channel | strengthening | medium | bearish | moderate | sustained | - | high | 2026-03-12 | 2026-03-01 | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-12 | correlation,equities,stagflation,wealth-effect | S017 | - | - | - | EV016 |
| EV013 | ISM Services PMI strong (56.1) | - | demand | past | confirmed | ISM Services 56.1 (vs 53.5 expected); strong expansion; services resilient | improving | medium | bullish | minor | short | - | high | 2026-03-05 | 2026-02-01 | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-12 | services,pmi,demand-support | S018 | - | - | - | - |
| EV014 | CPI in-line (2.4% YoY) — Fed on hold | - | demand | past | confirmed | CPI 2.4% YoY (in-line); core 2.5% (in-line); keeps Fed at 3.50-3.75% | stable | medium | neutral | minor | sustained | - | high | 2026-03-11 | 2026-02-01 | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-12 | cpi,inflation,fed,monetary-policy | S019 | - | - | - | - |
| EV015 | Gas-to-oil substitution from LNG disruption | EV005 | demand | present | confirmed | Qatar LNG halt + European TTF +30%; industrial/power may substitute to oil | stable | medium | bullish | moderate | short | - | medium | 2026-03-09 | 2026-03-09 | 2026-04-30 | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-12 | lng,gas-substitution,demand-shift | S009 | - | - | - | EV005 |
| EV016 | Stagflation risk rising | - | demand | present | confirmed | NFP miss + rising input prices + slowing GDP = classic stagflation; historically dampens oil demand 0.3-0.5 mb/d | deteriorating | high | bearish | moderate | sustained | - | medium | 2026-03-12 | 2026-02-01 | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-12 | stagflation,recession-risk,demand-destruction | S014,S015,S016,S020 | SF021,SF022,SF023,SF024 | - | - | EV009,EV010,EV011,EV012 |
| id | source | author | type | date | quote | audience | credibility | impact | references |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S001 | Al Jazeera | - | news-report | 2026-03-11 | Iran's IRGC says it will not allow 'a litre of oil' through the Strait of Hormuz | public | high | Confirms full blockade intent; highest-significance supply signal | EV001 |
| S002 | NBC News | - | news-report | 2026-03-11 | At least 3 ships attacked near Strait of Hormuz; Iran launches its 'most intense' strikes of war | public | high | Confirms ongoing kinetic disruption to shipping | EV001 |
| S003 | CNN | - | news-report | 2026-03-10 | US says it destroyed Iranian naval ships and minelayers near the Strait of Hormuz | public | high | Confirms mine-laying activity; US attempting to clear but Iran persists | EV001 |
| S004 | Fortune / Argus | - | industry-report | 2026-03-08 | Iraq production collapsed from 4.42 mb/d to 1.5-1.7 mb/d; running out of storage | public | high | Quantifies Iraq supply loss at ~3 mb/d | EV002 |
| S005 | Fortune / CNBC | - | news-report | 2026-03-07 | Kuwait started 100K b/d cuts, increasing gradually; UAE also cutting as Hormuz stays blocked | public | high | Confirms Gulf producer cuts beyond just transit disruption | EV003 |
| S006 | IEA Official | Fatih Birol | official-statement | 2026-03-11 | The oil market challenges we are facing are unprecedented in scale | public | high | Validates severity; largest ever coordinated action signals extreme conditions | EV004 |
| S007 | CNBC | - | news-report | 2026-03-11 | IEA agrees to release record 400 million barrels of oil to address Iran war supply disruption | public | high | Confirms release size and scope | EV004 |
| S008 | Bloomberg | - | news-report | 2026-03-11 | IEA Confirms Huge Release of Emergency Oil Stockpiles to Calm Prices | public | high | Confirms unanimous decision by 32 members | EV004 |
| S009 | CNBC | - | news-report | 2026-03-09 | Qatar LNG halted after Iranian drone attack on export facility | public | high | 20% global LNG flows disrupted; gas-to-oil substitution potential | EV005 |
| S010 | EIA | - | official-data | 2026-03-11 | US crude inventories +3.824M bbl to 443.1M for week ending Mar 6 | public | high | 3rd consecutive build; bearish for US domestic but irrelevant to global | EV006 |
| S011 | OPEC | - | official-statement | 2026-03-01 | 8 countries agreed to resume 206K b/d output unwinding starting April | public | high | Trivial volume vs Hormuz disruption | EV007 |
| S012 | Axios | - | news-report | 2026-03-11 | Trump tells Axios there's 'practically nothing left' to target in Iran | public | high | Strongest de-escalation signal from US; implies wind-down approaching | EV008 |
| S013 | CBS News | - | news-report | 2026-03-11 | Trump vows to end war soon; declined to specify timeline | public | high | Consistent with de-escalation but vague on timing | EV008 |
| S014 | BLS | - | official-data | 2026-03-06 | Non-Farm Payrolls Feb: -92,000; Unemployment 4.4% | public | high | Worst monthly job loss since pandemic; stagflation signal | EV009 |
| S015 | BEA | - | official-data | 2026-02-20 | Q4 2025 GDP advance: 1.4% | public | high | Sharp deceleration from 4.4% in Q3 | EV010 |
| S016 | ISM | - | official-data | 2026-03-03 | ISM Manufacturing Prices 70.5 vs 59.0 expected | public | high | Tariff-driven cost inflation; highest since 2022 | EV011 |
| S017 | Market Data | - | market-data | 2026-03-12 | SPX down 0.99%; JPMorgan warns 10% correction risk; Yardeni 35% meltdown odds | public | medium | Oil-equity correlation weighing on both markets | EV012 |
| S018 | ISM | - | official-data | 2026-03-05 | ISM Services PMI 56.1 vs 53.5 expected | public | high | Strong expansion partially offsets manufacturing weakness | EV013 |
| S019 | BLS | - | official-data | 2026-03-11 | CPI Feb 2.4% YoY, 0.3% MoM; core 2.5% | public | high | In-line; keeps Fed on hold; no additional tightening threat | EV014 |
| S020 | Yahoo Finance / Yardeni | Ed Yardeni | analysis | 2026-03-11 | Meltdown odds raised to 35% from 20% | public | medium | Prominent strategist raising recession/meltdown probability | EV016 |
| id | subFactor | parent | type | valueEvidence | status | leadTime | startDate | projectedEnd | lastUpdated | sources | references |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF001 | Iran physically mining the strait | EV001 | action | IRGC confirmed mining operations; US destroyed minelayers | confirmed | - | 2026-02-28 | 2026-03-26 | 2026-03-12 | S003 | EV001 |
| SF002 | IRGC publicly vowed "not a litre of oil" passes | EV001 | action | Official IRGC statement reported by Al Jazeera | confirmed | - | 2026-03-11 | - | 2026-03-12 | S001 | EV001 |
| SF003 | 3+ ships attacked near Hormuz | EV001 | action | Multiple confirmed attacks on shipping | confirmed | - | 2026-03-11 | - | 2026-03-12 | S002 | EV001 |
| SF004 | <10% of pre-conflict oil flows through strait | EV001 | capability | Shipping data shows near-total disruption | confirmed | - | 2026-02-28 | - | 2026-03-12 | S001,S002 | EV001 |
| SF005 | Iran retains capability to sustain blockade despite US strikes | EV001 | capability | 5,500+ US targets hit but Iran still mining and attacking; asymmetric mine/drone warfare harder to suppress | partial | - | 2026-02-28 | - | 2026-03-12 | S002,S003 | EV001 |
| SF006 | Gulf export route blocked | EV002 | constraint | Hormuz blockade prevents tanker egress; storage full | confirmed | - | 2026-03-01 | 2026-04-15 | 2026-03-12 | S004 | EV002 |
| SF007 | Production fell from 4.42 mb/d to 1.2-1.5 mb/d | EV002 | action | Confirmed by Fortune/Argus reporting | confirmed | - | 2026-03-01 | - | 2026-03-12 | S004 | EV002 |
| SF008 | Iraq lacks pipeline capacity to bypass Hormuz | EV002 | constraint | Turkey-Iraq pipeline (KRG) has ~0.5 mb/d capacity; rest must go through Gulf | confirmed | - | - | - | 2026-03-12 | S004 | EV002 |
| SF009 | All 32 IEA members unanimously agreed | EV004 | action | Formal IEA announcement; 6th ever collective action | confirmed | - | 2026-03-11 | - | 2026-03-12 | S006,S007,S008 | EV004 |
| SF010 | US contributing 172M bbl from SPR | EV004 | action | DOE confirmed; reversal from earlier "rules out SPR" stance | confirmed | 7d | 2026-03-11 | 2026-05-10 | 2026-03-12 | S007 | EV004 |
| SF011 | Reserve release covers ~60 days at current deficit | EV004 | capability | 400M bbl / 6.7 mb/d deficit = ~60 days | confirmed | - | - | - | 2026-03-12 | S007,S008 | EV004 |
| SF012 | Initial price impact failed — prices recovered above $90 | EV004 | action | Brent crashed to $84 then recovered to ~$101; structural disruption overwhelms | confirmed | - | 2026-03-11 | - | 2026-03-12 | S007 | EV004 |
| SF013 | SPR already at historically low levels | EV004 | constraint | US SPR drawn down heavily in 2022-2023; limited refill before this release | confirmed | - | - | - | 2026-03-12 | S007 | EV004 |
| SF014 | Trump says "practically nothing left" to target | - | intention | Direct quote from CBS/Axios reporting | confirmed | - | 2026-03-11 | - | 2026-03-12 | S012 | - |
| SF015 | 2-4 week timeline for end of operations | - | intention | Trump declined to give specific timeline; "soon" is vague; 2-4 weeks is analyst estimate | partial | 14d | 2026-03-11 | 2026-03-26 | 2026-03-12 | S012,S013 | - |
| SF016 | Earlier demanded unconditional surrender | - | precedent | Truth Social post Mar 7; eliminates near-term negotiated ceasefire unless Iran capitulates | confirmed | - | 2026-03-07 | - | 2026-03-12 | S012 | - |
| SF017 | Iran named new supreme leader (Mojtaba Khamenei) | - | action | Fox News confirmed; unclear impact on negotiations; regime continuity suggests no near-term capitulation | confirmed | - | 2026-03-10 | - | 2026-03-12 | S013 | - |
| SF018 | NFP -92K — worst since pandemic | - | action | BLS confirmed; DOGE layoffs significant factor | confirmed | - | 2026-03-06 | - | 2026-03-12 | S014 | - |
| SF019 | Prior 2 months revised down 69K total | - | action | BLS revision | confirmed | - | 2026-03-06 | - | 2026-03-12 | S014 | - |
| SF020 | Unemployment jumped 0.3pp to 4.4% | - | action | BLS confirmed; highest since Oct 2021 | confirmed | - | 2026-03-06 | - | 2026-03-12 | S014 | - |
| SF021 | GDP decelerated sharply (4.4% to 1.4%) | EV016 | action | BEA advance estimate | confirmed | - | 2026-02-20 | - | 2026-03-12 | S015 | EV016 |
| SF022 | Input prices surging (ISM Mfg Prices 70.5) | EV016 | action | ISM confirmed; tariff-driven; +11.5 pts in one month | confirmed | - | 2026-03-03 | - | 2026-03-12 | S016 | EV016 |
| SF023 | VIX elevated ~30+ reflecting fear | EV016 | deployment | CBOE VIX at ~30; war + jobs + inflation fears | confirmed | - | 2026-03-01 | - | 2026-03-12 | S017 | EV016 |
| SF024 | Yardeni raised meltdown odds to 35% | EV016 | intention | Published analysis; up from 20% | confirmed | - | 2026-03-11 | - | 2026-03-12 | S020 | EV016 |