| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Asset | Crude Oil (WTI / Brent) |
| Class | Commodity — Energy |
| Ticker | CL=F (WTI), BZ=F (Brent) |
| Related | USO (ETF), XLE (energy equities), OVX (oil VIX), XOP (E&P equities), BNO (Brent ETF) |
| Analysis Date | 2026-03-12 |
| Data Freshness | 2026-03-12T05:30:00Z — Events current through Mar 12; price data live from Oanda ($101.03); all analysis intermediates from today's run |
| track | created | lastValidated | validFrom | validTo | tradingDays | calendarDays |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fundamental | 2026-03-12T14:00:00Z | 2026-03-12T14:00:00Z | 2026-03-12 | 2026-03-26 | 10 | 14 |
| Technical | 2026-03-12T06:00:00Z | 2026-03-12T06:00:00Z | 2026-03-12 | 2026-03-19 | 5 | 7 |
| Regime | 2026-03-12T05:30:00Z | 2026-03-12T05:30:00Z | 2026-03-12 | 2026-03-26 | 10 | 14 |
| Market Structure | 2026-03-12T05:00:00Z | 2026-03-12T05:00:00Z | 2026-03-12 | 2026-04-09 | 20 | 28 |
| id | name | parent | category | temporalState | realizationStatus | value | trend | significance | direction | magnitude | duration | probability | confidence | date | startDate | projectedEnd | leadTime | leadTimeBasis | sourceType | lastUpdated | topics | sources | evidenceFor | evidenceAgainst | leadTimeEvidence | references |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV001 | Hormuz Strait full blockade | - | supply | present | confirmed | ~6-7 mb/d of oil transit halted; <10% pre-conflict flows; Iran actively mining strait and attacking ships | stable | high | bullish | major | sustained | - | high | 2026-03-12 | 2026-02-28 | 2026-03-26 | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-12 | hormuz,blockade,iran,supply-disruption,war | S001,S002,S003 | SF001,SF002,SF003,SF004,SF005 | - | - | EV002,EV003,EV005 |
| EV002 | Iraq production collapse | EV001 | supply | present | confirmed | Production fell from 4.42 mb/d to 1.2-1.5 mb/d; storage full; exports near-zero via Gulf | deteriorating | high | bullish | major | sustained | - | high | 2026-03-12 | 2026-03-01 | 2026-04-15 | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-12 | iraq,production-collapse,supply-disruption | S004 | SF006,SF007,SF008 | - | - | EV001 |
| EV003 | UAE/Kuwait output cuts | EV001 | supply | present | confirmed | Combined ~5.5 mb/d pre-war production being cut; cannot export via Hormuz | deteriorating | high | bullish | major | sustained | - | high | 2026-03-12 | 2026-03-07 | 2026-04-15 | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-12 | uae,kuwait,production-cut,hormuz | S005 | - | - | - | EV001 |
| EV004 | IEA 400M barrel reserve release | - | supply | present | confirmed | 400M bbl release agreed; US contributing 172M; largest ever IEA coordinated action; starts next week | accelerating | high | bearish | major | short | - | high | 2026-03-11 | 2026-03-11 | 2026-05-10 | 7d | Releases start next week per DOE | llm-search | 2026-03-12 | iea,spr,reserve-release,policy-response | S006,S007,S008 | SF009,SF010,SF011,SF012,SF013 | - | DOE announcement confirmed start date | EV001,EV008 |
| EV005 | Qatar LNG facility attacked — halted | EV001 | supply | present | confirmed | Qatar LNG export facility hit by Iranian drone; ~20% global LNG flows halted; restart weeks not days | stable | high | bullish | major | sustained | - | high | 2026-03-09 | 2026-03-09 | 2026-04-30 | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-12 | qatar,lng,drone-attack,gas-disruption | S009 | - | - | - | EV001,EV015 |
| EV006 | US domestic crude builds (+3.8M) | - | supply | past | confirmed | +3.824M bbl to 443.1M total; 3rd consecutive build; Cushing +117K | increasing | low | bearish | minor | transient | - | high | 2026-03-11 | 2026-03-06 | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-12 | eia,inventory,crude-build,us-domestic | S010 | - | - | - | - |
| EV007 | OPEC+ 206K b/d output unwinding (April) | - | supply | future | registered | 206K b/d increase from 8 countries starting April; trivial vs Hormuz disruption | stable | low | bearish | minor | short | - | high | 2026-04-01 | 2026-04-01 | - | 20d | OPEC Mar 1 decision | llm-search | 2026-03-12 | opec,production-unwinding | S011 | - | - | - | - |
| EV008 | Trump signals war ending "soon" (2-4 weeks) | - | supply | present | confirmed | Trump says 'practically nothing left' to target; 'soon' but no timeline; 2-4 week analyst estimate | accelerating | high | bearish | major | short | - | medium | 2026-03-11 | 2026-03-11 | 2026-03-26 | 14d | Analyst estimate from 'practically nothing left' + 'soon' rhetoric | llm-search | 2026-03-12 | ceasefire,war-timeline,trump,de-escalation | S012,S013 | SF014,SF015 | SF016,SF017 | Trump 'soon' rhetoric; Hegseth '2 more weeks' estimate; war Day 14 | EV001,EV004 |
| EV009 | US labor market deterioration (NFP -92K, UE 4.4%) | EV016 | demand | past | confirmed | NFP -92K (vs +55K expected); worst since pandemic; UE jumped to 4.4% | deteriorating | high | bearish | moderate | sustained | - | high | 2026-03-06 | 2026-02-28 | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-12 | employment,recession,labor-market,nfp | S014 | SF018,SF019,SF020 | - | - | EV010,EV016 |
| EV010 | US GDP deceleration (Q4: 1.4%) | EV016 | demand | past | confirmed | Q4 2025 GDP advance: 1.4% vs 4.4% in Q3; sharp deceleration | deteriorating | high | bearish | moderate | sustained | - | high | 2026-02-20 | 2025-10-01 | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-12 | gdp,recession,growth-slowdown | S015 | SF021 | - | - | EV016 |
| EV011 | ISM Manufacturing Prices surge (70.5) | EV016 | demand | past | confirmed | ISM Manufacturing Prices 70.5 (vs 59.0 expected); highest since 2022; tariff-driven | accelerating | medium | bearish | moderate | short | - | high | 2026-03-03 | 2026-02-01 | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-12 | inflation,tariffs,manufacturing,input-costs | S016 | SF022 | - | - | EV016 |
| EV012 | Oil-equity negative correlation strengthening | EV016 | demand | present | confirmed | Oil-equity negative correlation strengthening; oil surge crushing equities via inflation channel | strengthening | medium | bearish | moderate | sustained | - | high | 2026-03-12 | 2026-03-01 | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-12 | correlation,equities,stagflation,wealth-effect | S017 | - | - | - | EV016 |
| EV013 | ISM Services PMI strong (56.1) | - | demand | past | confirmed | ISM Services 56.1 (vs 53.5 expected); strong expansion; services resilient | improving | medium | bullish | minor | short | - | high | 2026-03-05 | 2026-02-01 | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-12 | services,pmi,demand-support | S018 | - | - | - | - |
| EV014 | CPI in-line (2.4% YoY) — Fed on hold | - | demand | past | confirmed | CPI 2.4% YoY (in-line); core 2.5% (in-line); keeps Fed at 3.50-3.75% | stable | medium | neutral | minor | sustained | - | high | 2026-03-11 | 2026-02-01 | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-12 | cpi,inflation,fed,monetary-policy | S019 | - | - | - | - |
| EV015 | Gas-to-oil substitution from LNG disruption | EV005 | demand | present | confirmed | Qatar LNG halt + European TTF +30%; industrial/power may substitute to oil | stable | medium | bullish | moderate | short | - | medium | 2026-03-09 | 2026-03-09 | 2026-04-30 | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-12 | lng,gas-substitution,demand-shift | S009 | - | - | - | EV005 |
| EV016 | Stagflation risk rising | - | demand | present | confirmed | NFP miss + rising input prices + slowing GDP = classic stagflation; historically dampens oil demand 0.3-0.5 mb/d | deteriorating | high | bearish | moderate | sustained | - | medium | 2026-03-12 | 2026-02-01 | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-12 | stagflation,recession-risk,demand-destruction | S014,S015,S016,S020 | SF021,SF022,SF023,SF024 | - | - | EV009,EV010,EV011,EV012 |
| id | source | author | type | date | quote | audience | credibility | impact | references |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S001 | Al Jazeera | - | news-report | 2026-03-11 | Iran's IRGC says it will not allow 'a litre of oil' through the Strait of Hormuz | public | high | Confirms full blockade intent; highest-significance supply signal | EV001 |
| S002 | NBC News | - | news-report | 2026-03-11 | At least 3 ships attacked near Strait of Hormuz; Iran launches its 'most intense' strikes of war | public | high | Confirms ongoing kinetic disruption to shipping | EV001 |
| S003 | CNN | - | news-report | 2026-03-10 | US says it destroyed Iranian naval ships and minelayers near the Strait of Hormuz | public | high | Confirms mine-laying activity; US attempting to clear but Iran persists | EV001 |
| S004 | Fortune / Argus | - | industry-report | 2026-03-08 | Iraq production collapsed from 4.42 mb/d to 1.5-1.7 mb/d; running out of storage | public | high | Quantifies Iraq supply loss at ~3 mb/d | EV002 |
| S005 | Fortune / CNBC | - | news-report | 2026-03-07 | Kuwait started 100K b/d cuts, increasing gradually; UAE also cutting as Hormuz stays blocked | public | high | Confirms Gulf producer cuts beyond just transit disruption | EV003 |
| S006 | IEA Official | Fatih Birol | official-statement | 2026-03-11 | The oil market challenges we are facing are unprecedented in scale | public | high | Validates severity; largest ever coordinated action signals extreme conditions | EV004 |
| S007 | CNBC | - | news-report | 2026-03-11 | IEA agrees to release record 400 million barrels of oil to address Iran war supply disruption | public | high | Confirms release size and scope | EV004 |
| S008 | Bloomberg | - | news-report | 2026-03-11 | IEA Confirms Huge Release of Emergency Oil Stockpiles to Calm Prices | public | high | Confirms unanimous decision by 32 members | EV004 |
| S009 | CNBC | - | news-report | 2026-03-09 | Qatar LNG halted after Iranian drone attack on export facility | public | high | 20% global LNG flows disrupted; gas-to-oil substitution potential | EV005 |
| S010 | EIA | - | official-data | 2026-03-11 | US crude inventories +3.824M bbl to 443.1M for week ending Mar 6 | public | high | 3rd consecutive build; bearish for US domestic but irrelevant to global | EV006 |
| S011 | OPEC | - | official-statement | 2026-03-01 | 8 countries agreed to resume 206K b/d output unwinding starting April | public | high | Trivial volume vs Hormuz disruption | EV007 |
| S012 | Axios | - | news-report | 2026-03-11 | Trump tells Axios there's 'practically nothing left' to target in Iran | public | high | Strongest de-escalation signal from US; implies wind-down approaching | EV008 |
| S013 | CBS News | - | news-report | 2026-03-11 | Trump vows to end war soon; declined to specify timeline | public | high | Consistent with de-escalation but vague on timing | EV008 |
| S014 | BLS | - | official-data | 2026-03-06 | Non-Farm Payrolls Feb: -92,000; Unemployment 4.4% | public | high | Worst monthly job loss since pandemic; stagflation signal | EV009 |
| S015 | BEA | - | official-data | 2026-02-20 | Q4 2025 GDP advance: 1.4% | public | high | Sharp deceleration from 4.4% in Q3 | EV010 |
| S016 | ISM | - | official-data | 2026-03-03 | ISM Manufacturing Prices 70.5 vs 59.0 expected | public | high | Tariff-driven cost inflation; highest since 2022 | EV011 |
| S017 | Market Data | - | market-data | 2026-03-12 | SPX down 0.99%; JPMorgan warns 10% correction risk; Yardeni 35% meltdown odds | public | medium | Oil-equity correlation weighing on both markets | EV012 |
| S018 | ISM | - | official-data | 2026-03-05 | ISM Services PMI 56.1 vs 53.5 expected | public | high | Strong expansion partially offsets manufacturing weakness | EV013 |
| S019 | BLS | - | official-data | 2026-03-11 | CPI Feb 2.4% YoY, 0.3% MoM; core 2.5% | public | high | In-line; keeps Fed on hold; no additional tightening threat | EV014 |
| S020 | Yahoo Finance / Yardeni | Ed Yardeni | analysis | 2026-03-11 | Meltdown odds raised to 35% from 20% | public | medium | Prominent strategist raising recession/meltdown probability | EV016 |
| id | subFactor | parent | type | valueEvidence | status | leadTime | startDate | projectedEnd | lastUpdated | sources | references |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF001 | Iran physically mining the strait | EV001 | action | IRGC confirmed mining operations; US destroyed minelayers | confirmed | - | 2026-02-28 | 2026-03-26 | 2026-03-12 | S003 | EV001 |
| SF002 | IRGC publicly vowed "not a litre of oil" passes | EV001 | action | Official IRGC statement reported by Al Jazeera | confirmed | - | 2026-03-11 | - | 2026-03-12 | S001 | EV001 |
| SF003 | 3+ ships attacked near Hormuz | EV001 | action | Multiple confirmed attacks on shipping | confirmed | - | 2026-03-11 | - | 2026-03-12 | S002 | EV001 |
| SF004 | <10% of pre-conflict oil flows through strait | EV001 | capability | Shipping data shows near-total disruption | confirmed | - | 2026-02-28 | - | 2026-03-12 | S001,S002 | EV001 |
| SF005 | Iran retains capability to sustain blockade despite US strikes | EV001 | capability | 5,500+ US targets hit but Iran still mining and attacking; asymmetric mine/drone warfare harder to suppress | partial | - | 2026-02-28 | - | 2026-03-12 | S002,S003 | EV001 |
| SF006 | Gulf export route blocked | EV002 | constraint | Hormuz blockade prevents tanker egress; storage full | confirmed | - | 2026-03-01 | 2026-04-15 | 2026-03-12 | S004 | EV002 |
| SF007 | Production fell from 4.42 mb/d to 1.2-1.5 mb/d | EV002 | action | Confirmed by Fortune/Argus reporting | confirmed | - | 2026-03-01 | - | 2026-03-12 | S004 | EV002 |
| SF008 | Iraq lacks pipeline capacity to bypass Hormuz | EV002 | constraint | Turkey-Iraq pipeline (KRG) has ~0.5 mb/d capacity; rest must go through Gulf | confirmed | - | - | - | 2026-03-12 | S004 | EV002 |
| SF009 | All 32 IEA members unanimously agreed | EV004 | action | Formal IEA announcement; 6th ever collective action | confirmed | - | 2026-03-11 | - | 2026-03-12 | S006,S007,S008 | EV004 |
| SF010 | US contributing 172M bbl from SPR | EV004 | action | DOE confirmed; reversal from earlier "rules out SPR" stance | confirmed | 7d | 2026-03-11 | 2026-05-10 | 2026-03-12 | S007 | EV004 |
| SF011 | Reserve release covers ~60 days at current deficit | EV004 | capability | 400M bbl / 6.7 mb/d deficit = ~60 days | confirmed | - | - | - | 2026-03-12 | S007,S008 | EV004 |
| SF012 | Initial price impact failed — prices recovered above $90 | EV004 | action | Brent crashed to $84 then recovered to ~$101; structural disruption overwhelms | confirmed | - | 2026-03-11 | - | 2026-03-12 | S007 | EV004 |
| SF013 | SPR already at historically low levels | EV004 | constraint | US SPR drawn down heavily in 2022-2023; limited refill before this release | confirmed | - | - | - | 2026-03-12 | S007 | EV004 |
| SF014 | Trump says "practically nothing left" to target | - | intention | Direct quote from CBS/Axios reporting | confirmed | - | 2026-03-11 | - | 2026-03-12 | S012 | - |
| SF015 | 2-4 week timeline for end of operations | - | intention | Trump declined to give specific timeline; "soon" is vague; 2-4 weeks is analyst estimate | partial | 14d | 2026-03-11 | 2026-03-26 | 2026-03-12 | S012,S013 | - |
| SF016 | Earlier demanded unconditional surrender | - | precedent | Truth Social post Mar 7; eliminates near-term negotiated ceasefire unless Iran capitulates | confirmed | - | 2026-03-07 | - | 2026-03-12 | S012 | - |
| SF017 | Iran named new supreme leader (Mojtaba Khamenei) | - | action | Fox News confirmed; unclear impact on negotiations; regime continuity suggests no near-term capitulation | confirmed | - | 2026-03-10 | - | 2026-03-12 | S013 | - |
| SF018 | NFP -92K — worst since pandemic | - | action | BLS confirmed; DOGE layoffs significant factor | confirmed | - | 2026-03-06 | - | 2026-03-12 | S014 | - |
| SF019 | Prior 2 months revised down 69K total | - | action | BLS revision | confirmed | - | 2026-03-06 | - | 2026-03-12 | S014 | - |
| SF020 | Unemployment jumped 0.3pp to 4.4% | - | action | BLS confirmed; highest since Oct 2021 | confirmed | - | 2026-03-06 | - | 2026-03-12 | S014 | - |
| SF021 | GDP decelerated sharply (4.4% to 1.4%) | EV016 | action | BEA advance estimate | confirmed | - | 2026-02-20 | - | 2026-03-12 | S015 | EV016 |
| SF022 | Input prices surging (ISM Mfg Prices 70.5) | EV016 | action | ISM confirmed; tariff-driven; +11.5 pts in one month | confirmed | - | 2026-03-03 | - | 2026-03-12 | S016 | EV016 |
| SF023 | VIX elevated ~30+ reflecting fear | EV016 | deployment | CBOE VIX at ~30; war + jobs + inflation fears | confirmed | - | 2026-03-01 | - | 2026-03-12 | S017 | EV016 |
| SF024 | Yardeni raised meltdown odds to 35% | EV016 | intention | Published analysis; up from 20% | confirmed | - | 2026-03-11 | - | 2026-03-12 | S020 | EV016 |
| id | cohort | participantType | direction | entryPrice | currentPnl | volume | purpose | thesis | entryDate | stopLoss | takeProfit | confidence | method | references |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PO001 | institutional | hedge-fund | long | $85-95 (re-accumulation zone after $120→$84 crash) | +6-19% ($101 vs $85-95 entry) | 89K on V-bottom candle; declining at $99-101 | directional | Recovery velocity ratio 1.33 (up-dominant); V-bottom at $81.5 with 89K volume; methodical buying Mar 10-12; sold the $120 spike aggressively but re-accumulated $85-95 zone; volume on up candles declining at $99-101 suggesting position building complete near-term | 2026-03-10 | $81.5 (crash low) | $105-110 | high | Velocity analysis: recovery ratio 1.33 (up-dominant); methodical buying Mar 10-12 after aggressive selling of $120 spike | EV001,EV004 |
| PO002 | commercial-hedger | producer | short | $100-120 (hedging war premium) | Mark-to-market favorable (sold above current $101) | Extreme sell volume at $120 spike highs | hedging | Producers aggressively hedged the $120 spike (evidenced by extreme sell volume at highs); IEA 400M barrel reserve release signals coordinated producer/government desire to cap prices; hedging activity intensifies above $100 as producers lock in war premium | 2026-03-08 | - | - | high | IEA 400M release + producer hedging above $100 creates coordinated short pressure; commercial behavior consistent with locking in elevated prices | EV001,EV004 |
| PO003 | speculative | momentum-trader | long | $90-95 (post-crash recovery entry) | +6-12% | Moderate; VIX 30+ attracts momentum chasers | directional | Late longs caught in $120→$84 crash partially liquidated; survivors riding recovery; new speculative longs entering on "war not over" narrative; VIX at 30+ indicates fear premium still active which attracts momentum chasers; fast money likely targeting $105-110 re-test | 2026-03-10 | $93-95 (consolidation support) | $105-110 | medium | War-not-over narrative; FOMO buying on $81.5→$101 recovery; targeting spike re-test | EV001,EV008 |
| PO004 | retail | retail | long | $95-101 (late entry, chasing recovery) | Flat to slightly positive | Low; $120→$84 crash created trauma | directional | Retail typically chases momentum — the $81.5→$101 recovery (+24% in 2 days) attracts FOMO buying; however, the $120→$84 crash created significant retail trauma; net positioning likely moderately long but with tight stops; low-volume Mar 11 gap to $99 suggests short squeeze rather than new retail demand | 2026-03-11 | Tight ($97-99) | $105-110 | medium | FOMO buying on V-bottom recovery; tight stops due to crash trauma; low conviction | EV001 |
| entity | type | weight | basis | confidence | lastUpdated | references |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV001 | event | 35 | Dominant price driver — removes ~6-7 mb/d from global market; largest supply disruption since 1990 Kuwait invasion; as long as blockade holds, prices have a hard floor well above $90; every other factor is secondary | high | 2026-03-12 | EV001,SF001,SF002,SF003,SF004,SF005 |
| EV008 | event | 15 | The single biggest swing variable — if war ends and Hormuz reopens, the entire supply disruption premium unwinds rapidly; 2-4 week timeline creates maximum uncertainty for forward pricing | medium | 2026-03-12 | EV008,SF014,SF015,SF016,SF017 |
| EV002 | event | 12 | 3 mb/d of lost production is massive even in context of broader Hormuz disruption; Iraq's inability to bypass Hormuz via pipeline means this persists as long as blockade does | high | 2026-03-12 | EV002,SF006,SF007,SF008 |
| EV004 | event | 12 | Largest ever coordinated release provides ~60 days of partial offset; creates a bearish ceiling even if it failed to hold prices down initially; releases starting next week will add physical barrels | high | 2026-03-12 | EV004,SF009,SF010,SF011,SF012,SF013 |
| EV003 | event | 8 | Significant additional lost supply (~3-4 mb/d combined) but mechanically linked to Hormuz blockade — not an independent driver | high | 2026-03-12 | EV003,EV001 |
| EV016 | event | 7 | Demand destruction potential if stagflation deepens; NFP -92K + GDP 1.4% + ISM Prices 70.5 is a threatening combination but oil demand inertia means effect is gradual | medium | 2026-03-12 | EV016,SF021,SF022,SF023,SF024 |
| EV009 | event | 4 | Leading indicator of consumption weakness; significant miss but oil demand impact lags by 2-3 months | high | 2026-03-12 | EV009,SF018,SF019,SF020 |
| EV005 | event | 3 | Indirect oil impact via gas-to-oil substitution and broader risk premium; primarily a gas market event | high | 2026-03-12 | EV005,EV015 |
| EV006 | event | 2 | Reflects US-specific dynamics; largely irrelevant to global Brent pricing in current environment | high | 2026-03-12 | EV006 |
| EV013 | event | 1 | Modest demand support; overwhelmed by supply-side factors | high | 2026-03-12 | EV013 |
| EV007 | event | 1 | Trivially small volume in context of ~6-7 mb/d disruption; irrelevant while Hormuz is blocked | high | 2026-03-12 | EV007 |
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Overall Bias | bullish |
| Confidence | medium |
| Time Horizon | 2-4 weeks |
| Key Driver | EV001: Hormuz Strait full blockade removing ~6-7 mb/d from global oil transit — largest supply disruption in modern history |
| Key Risk | EV008: Rapid war cessation and Hormuz reopening within 2 weeks would collapse the ~$27 disruption premium |
| rank | id | name | type | why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | EV001 | Hormuz Strait full blockade | unified-event | 35% influence weight. Dominant price driver — removes ~6-7 mb/d from global market; largest supply disruption since 1990 Kuwait invasion; as long as blockade holds, prices have a hard floor well above $90; every other fact |
| 2 | EV008 | Trump signals war ending "soon" | unified-event | 15% influence weight. The single biggest swing variable — if war ends and Hormuz reopens, the entire supply disruption premium unwinds rapidly; 2-4 week timeline creates maximum uncertainty for forward pricing |
| 3 | EV002 | Iraq production collapse | unified-event | 12% influence weight. 3 mb/d of lost production is massive even in context of broader Hormuz disruption; Iraq's inability to bypass Hormuz via pipeline means this persists as long as blockade does |
| 4 | EV004 | IEA 400M barrel reserve release | unified-event | 12% influence weight. Largest ever coordinated release provides ~60 days of partial offset; creates a bearish ceiling even if it failed to hold prices down initially; releases starting next week will add physical barrels |
| 5 | EV003 | UAE/Kuwait output cuts | unified-event | 8% influence weight. Significant additional lost supply (~3-4 mb/d combined) but mechanically linked to Hormuz blockade — not an independent driver |
| scenario | probability | priceTarget | keyAssumption | keyEvents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base: Prolonged disruption with reserve offset | 50% | $95-110 | Hormuz blockade continues 2-4 more weeks; IEA releases provide partial offset; war winds down gradually with no sudden ceasefire | EV001,EV004,EV002,EV008 |
| Bull: Escalation or reserve inadequacy | 20% | $115-130 | Blockade tightens further or extends beyond 4 weeks; IEA reserves prove insufficient; Iran attacks additional infrastructure (Saudi, other GCC) | EV001,EV003,EV005 |
| Bear: Rapid war end and Hormuz reopening | 30% | $75-90 | Trump achieves quick resolution; Hormuz reopens within 2 weeks; IEA releases flood an already-normalizing market; 400M bbl overshoot | EV008,EV004,EV009,EV016 |
| id | risk | trigger | wouldChangeBiasTo | monitoringSignal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R001 | Sudden ceasefire / Hormuz reopening | Iran capitulates or Trump accepts negotiated terms; US Navy clears mines | bearish | Trump/Iran statements; shipping data through Hormuz; mine-clearing operations announced |
| R002 | Escalation to Saudi/GCC production | Iran strikes Saudi Aramco facilities (Abqaiq-style) or Red Sea corridor | strongly bullish | Iranian missile/drone activity toward Saudi; Houthi escalation; Saudi production reports |
| R003 | IEA reserves deplete faster than expected | Draw rates exceed 6.7 mb/d; coordination breaks down among 32 members | bullish | SPR draw pace; IEA member compliance; days-of-supply calculations |
| R004 | US recession accelerates | NFP continues negative; consumer spending drops; Fed forced into emergency action | bearish | Weekly jobless claims; retail sales; consumer confidence; Fed statements |
| R005 | Iran mines prove harder to clear than expected | Strait reopening delayed weeks beyond war end; shipping insurance remains prohibitive | bullish | Mine-clearing timelines; shipping insurance rates; first tanker transits post-war |
| R006 | Tariff escalation crushes global demand | US-China or US-EU trade war intensifies; ISM Prices stay above 65 | bearish | Trade policy announcements; ISM data; global PMIs |
| priority | id | item | checkFrequency | nextCheck | triggerCondition |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MP001 | Trump/Iran war-ending statements and diplomacy | daily | 2026-03-13 | Any ceasefire announcement, timeline specificity, or negotiation framework |
| 2 | MP002 | Hormuz shipping activity and mine status | daily | 2026-03-13 | Any tanker transit confirmed; mine-clearing operations begin; shipping insurance rates drop |
| 3 | MP003 | IEA reserve release execution pace | weekly | 2026-03-18 | First physical barrels hit market; draw rates from US SPR and other members |
| 4 | MP004 | Iraq/UAE/Kuwait production and export data | weekly | 2026-03-18 | Any production recovery; alternative export routes activated (Turkey pipeline) |
| 5 | MP005 | US economic data (jobless claims, retail sales) | weekly | 2026-03-13 | Claims above 250K; retail sales negative; consumer confidence below 95 |
| 6 | MP006 | PCE Price Index (Jan) | one-time | 2026-03-13 | Surprise above 0.4% MoM would raise stagflation fears; below 0.2% would ease |
| 7 | MP007 | EIA weekly crude inventories | weekly | 2026-03-18 | 4th consecutive build would confirm US oversupply even amid global disruption |
| archetype | match_score | active_triggers | mismatches | phase | confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Supply Shock Breakout | 92 | Supply disruption (Hormuz), military conflict (Iran-US war), strategic reserve release (IEA 400M), production collapse (Iraq) | None material — scale exceeds all historical precedent | Phase 3 (Supply Response) — early-to-mid | high |
| Geopolitical Premium Build | 35 | Military conflict, escalating tensions | Physical disruption already confirmed (not just threat); regime has TRANSITIONED to SSB | Phase 4b (Escalation to Supply Disruption) — completed transition | low |
| Demand-Driven Selloff | 18 | NFP miss, rising unemployment, stagflation signals | No confirmed recession; ISM Services strong; oil demand inelastic at current prices; primary driver is supply not demand | Phase 1 (Growth Concern) — background risk only | low |
| Range Consolidation | 5 | None | Active crisis; extreme volatility; no balanced conditions; polar opposite of consolidation triggers | Not applicable | very low |
| path | archetype | probability | current_price | target | invalidation | timeline | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PATH001 | Supply Shock Breakout (Phase 3 plateau) | 45% | $101 | $100-110 | $84.00 | 2-3 weeks | active |
| PATH002 | Supply Shock Breakout (Phase 2 extension) | 15% | $101 | $115-125 | $93.00 | 1-2 weeks | active |
| PATH003 | Supply Shock Breakout (Phase 4 accelerated) | 25% | $101 | $78-90 | $110.00 | 1-3 weeks | active |
| PATH004 | Range Consolidation (elevated level) | 15% | $101 | $93-107 | $84.00 or $115.00 | 2-4 weeks | active |
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Archetype | Supply Shock Breakout — Phase 3 (Supply Response) |
| Probability | 45% |
| Current Price | $101 |
| Target | $100-110 (plateau zone) |
| Invalidation | $84.00 (break below crash low confirms demand destruction or ceasefire) |
| Timeline | 2-3 weeks (through late March) |
| Direction | neutral-to-bullish (oscillation within elevated range) |
| step | level | action | signal | est_timing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $101-102 | Current — testing 50% retracement / $100 psychological | Sustained H4 close above $102 with volume | Mar 12-13 |
| 2 | $105-107 | V-bottom measured move target; Mar 9 consolidation zone | Rejection or breakthrough at this level | Mar 14-17 |
| 3 | $100-110 | Plateau formation; market oscillates as IEA releases begin hitting | Daily ranges compress to 2-3%; volume normalizes | Mar 17-26 |
| 4 | Signal | IEA reserve pace vs Hormuz closure duration determines plateau level | Physical market tightness indicators, inventory data | Ongoing |
The 2022 Russia-Ukraine analog saw Brent sustain $100-112 for months in Phase 3. Current conditions support a similar plateau: Hormuz remains fully blocked (structural bullish floor), but IEA 400M release + Trump "soon" timeline cap upside. The $120 spike and crash have established a demonstrated ceiling that limits speculative excess. Commercial hedgers are active sellers above $100, creating a soft cap.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Archetype | Supply Shock Breakout — Phase 2 Extension |
| Probability | 15% |
| Current Price | $101 |
| Target | $115-125 |
| Invalidation | $93.00 (break below recovery support zone) |
| Timeline | 1-2 weeks |
| Direction | strongly bullish |
| step | level | action | signal | est_timing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $101-107 | Break through resistance cluster | H4 close above $107 on >40K volume | Mar 12-14 |
| 2 | $109-110 | Gap fill from Mar 8 | Momentum continuation without pullback | Mar 14-16 |
| 3 | $115-125 | Re-approach of spike high | Requires new catalyst (Iran strikes Saudi, mine-clearing failure, IEA reserves insufficient) | Mar 16-20 |
Requires escalation catalyst or IEA reserve inadequacy. If Hormuz blockade tightens further (confirmed mining, additional ship attacks) or the war expands to Saudi/UAE infrastructure, the $120 spike could be re-tested. The current recovery impulse ($81.5→$101) has momentum that could carry further if resistance breaks.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Archetype | Supply Shock Breakout — Phase 4 (Normalization) accelerated |
| Probability | 25% |
| Current Price | $101 |
| Target | $78-90 |
| Invalidation | $110.00 (new high above $110 invalidates rapid normalization) |
| Timeline | 1-3 weeks |
| Direction | bearish |
| step | level | action | signal | est_timing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $101 | Current — elevated but ceasefire risk growing | Trump "practically nothing left" / "soon" rhetoric intensifies | Mar 12-14 |
| 2 | $90-95 | Initial ceasefire announcement or credible negotiation framework | Sharp 8-12% gap-down on ceasefire news; IEA releases accelerate | Mar 14-19 |
| 3 | $78-85 | Hormuz reopening confirmed; mine-clearing begins; first tanker transits | Physical market normalizes; spec long liquidation cascades | Mar 19-26 |
| 4 | $78-82 | Residual premium of 5-10% above pre-war $74 persists for weeks | 400M IEA release + returning Gulf production creates temporary oversupply | Mar 26+ |
Trump's "practically nothing left" and shortened timeline (2-4 weeks from Day 14) directly support this path. If the war ends quickly, the combination of 400M IEA reserve release hitting a market where Gulf production restarts creates a bearish tsunami. The 2020 Soleimani analog saw $6 premium unwind in 5 sessions. The current premium (~$27 above pre-war $74) would unwind faster than it was built, consistent with the archetype's Phase 4 velocity pattern. The $84 crash showed the market CAN trade here — it was short-lived but demonstrated the downside path exists.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Archetype | Range Consolidation (adapted to post-shock environment) |
| Probability | 15% |
| Current Price | $101 |
| Target | $93-107 range |
| Invalidation | $84.00 (range break below) or $115.00 (range break above) |
| Timeline | 2-4 weeks |
| Direction | neutral |
| step | level | action | signal | est_timing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $101-107 | Upper range test — resistance from V-bottom measured move zone | Rejection at $105-107 with declining volume | Mar 12-15 |
| 2 | $93-95 | Lower range test — support from Mar 10-11 consolidation | Buyers defend $93; V-bottom structure holds | Mar 15-19 |
| 3 | $93-107 | Range matures; market waits for war resolution clarity | Declining ATR; volume contraction; options vol compression | Mar 19-26 |
| 4 | Breakout | War end triggers downside break OR escalation triggers upside break | Volume surge >2x average at range boundary | Event-dependent |
If neither escalation nor rapid de-escalation materializes, the market could consolidate in the $93-107 range — the zone defined by the V-bottom recovery. This would be a holding pattern while the market waits for war resolution. The IEA releases provide a soft ceiling (buyers cautious above $105 knowing reserves are coming), while the Hormuz blockade provides a hard floor (sellers cautious below $93 knowing physical disruption persists).
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Active Regime | Supply Shock Breakout |
| Best Path | PATH001 — Supply Response Plateau |
| Phase | Phase 3 (Supply Response) — early-to-mid |
| Price Target | $100-110 |
| Confidence | medium-high |
| Alignment Score | 82 |
| Invalidation | $84.00 (break below crash low confirms demand destruction or ceasefire regime change) |
| Next Signal | $101-102 resistance resolution — sustained H4 close above $102 targets $105-107; rejection targets $93-95 consolidation |
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Instrument | BCO_USD |
| Price | $101.03/bbl |
| Currency | USD |
| Unit | bbl |
| Timestamp | 2026-03-12T05:30:00Z |
| Trigger | Scheduled point-in-time snapshot |
| Trigger Ref | - |
| id | component | category | value | percent | basis | trend | confidence | references |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PA001 | Base crude cost | base-cost | +$70.00 | 69.3% | Pre-disruption fundamental value; production cost floor + margin + pre-war $65-74 range equilibrium | stable | high | - |
| PA002 | Hormuz blockade premium | supply-disruption | +$25.00 | 24.7% | 6-7 mb/d transit halted; IRGC vows "not a litre"; <10% pre-conflict flows; largest disruption in modern oil history | stable-to-increasing | high | geopolitical/2026-03-12 |
| PA003 | Iraq/UAE/Kuwait supply loss | supply-disruption | +$12.00 | 11.9% | Iraq collapsed 4.42→1.2-1.5 mb/d; UAE/Kuwait cutting as storage fills; additional 5+ mb/d combined loss | increasing | high | geopolitical/2026-03-12 |
| PA004 | IEA reserve offset | liquidity-discount | -$8.00 | -7.9% | 400M bbl release (largest ever); US contributing 172M from SPR; starts next week; partial offset to disruption | increasing (more bearish) | medium | policy/2026-03-12 |
| PA005 | War resolution discount | risk-premium | -$5.00 | -4.9% | Trump "practically nothing left"; "soon" rhetoric; 2-4 week timeline; Mojtaba Khamenei as new supreme leader creates negotiation opening | increasing (more bearish) | medium | policy/2026-03-12 |
| PA006 | Speculative/momentum premium | speculative-premium | +$6.00 | 5.9% | Short covering rally from $81.5; FOMO buying on recovery; recovery velocity ratio 1.33 (up-dominant); VIX 30+ attracting momentum chasers | decelerating | medium | positioning/2026-03-12 |
| PA007 | Demand destruction headwind | demand-pull | -$3.00 | -3.0% | NFP -92K; UE 4.4%; ISM Prices 70.5 (stagflation); GDP 1.4% deceleration; oil demand inertia means 2-3 month lag | stable | medium | economic-release/2026-03-12 |
| PA008 | Qatar LNG / risk contagion | risk-premium | +$2.00 | 2.0% | Qatar LNG facility attacked; 20% global LNG flows halted; gas-to-oil substitution; broader regional risk premium | stable | medium | geopolitical/2026-03-12 |
| PA009 | Technical momentum premium | technical-premium | +$3.00 | 3.0% | V-bottom from $81.5; 50% retracement hold at $100.75; institutional re-accumulation confirmed by velocity | decelerating | medium | technical/result |
| PA010 | US domestic surplus | fundamental-premium | -$1.00 | -1.0% | 3rd consecutive crude build (+3.8M bbl to 443.1M); US-specific dynamics largely irrelevant to global Brent | stable | low | inventory/2026-03-12 |
Residual: $0.03/bbl Validation: Components sum to $101.00 vs actual $101.03
| id | instrument | forecastDate | targetDate | targetTimeframe | compositePrice | compositeLow | compositeHigh | compositeConfidence | status | actualClose | error | errorPercent | references |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PF001 | BCO_USD | 2026-03-12 | 2026-03-18 | 4 trading days | 104.08 | 75 | 130 | medium | active | - | - | - | PAT001 |
| track | method | predictedPrice | predictedLow | predictedHigh | confidence | weight | reasoning | references |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| fundamental | scenario-weighted | 100.5 | 75 | 130 | medium | 35 | Scenario-weighted: base ($95-110, 50%) + bull ($115-130, 20%) + bear ($75-90, 30%). Key driver Hormuz blockade duration vs IEA release timeline and war ending rhetoric. | EV001,EV004,EV008 |
| participant | positioning-flow | 106 | 93 | 110 | medium | 25 | Institutional net-long re-accumulating $85-95; targeting $105-107. Commercial hedgers shorting above $100. Net bullish but contested. Velocity ratio 1.33 supports upside. | PO001,PO002 |
| pattern | technical-level | 107 | 93 | 120 | medium | 20 | V-bottom reversal confirmed; measured move 50-62% retracement of $120→$81.5 = $105-$105.4. Supply-shock impulse on W confirms sustained above $100. Exhaustion gap at $93-95 defines downside. | - |
| regime | historical-analog | 105 | 78 | 125 | medium-high | 20 | Supply Shock Breakout Phase 3 plateau $100-110. PATH001 (48%) centers on plateau; PATH003 (22%) targets $78-90 on ceasefire; PATH002 (10%) targets $115-125 on escalation. 2022 Russia-Ukraine analog sustains this range. | EV001,EV004 |
| track | method | predictedPrice | predictedLow | predictedHigh | confidence | weight | reasoning | references |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| fundamental | scenario-weighted | $100.50 | $75.00 | $130.00 | medium | 35 | Scenario-weighted: base ($95-110, 50%) + bull ($115-130, 20%) + bear ($75-90, 30%). Key driver is Hormuz blockade duration vs IEA release timeline. War ending "soon" creates 30% bear scenario weight. | fundamental/result |
| participant | positioning-flow | $106.00 | $93.00 | $110.00 | medium | 25 | Institutional net-long (bullish, high conf), re-accumulated $85-95 zone, targeting $105-107. Commercial hedgers shorting aggressively above $100 — contested zone. Speculative longs riding recovery momentum. Net: bullish but decelerating. | technical/participants |
| pattern | technical-level | $107.00 | $93.00 | $120.00 | medium | 20 | V-bottom reversal confirmed ($81.5 low). Measured move target: 50-62% retracement of $120→$81.5 = $105-$105.4. Supply-shock impulse on W confirms sustained above $100. Bearish exhaustion gap at $93-95 defines downside. | technical/patterns |
| regime | historical-analog | $105.00 | $78.00 | $125.00 | medium-high | 20 | Supply Shock Breakout Phase 3 plateau target $100-110 (updated from $95-105 after IEA release failed to hold prices). PATH001 (48%) centers on $100-110; PATH003 (22%) targets $78-90 on ceasefire; PATH002 (10%) targets $115-125 on escalation. Weighted: ~$105. | regime/result |