| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Instrument | BCO_USD |
| Price | $101.03/bbl |
| Currency | USD |
| Unit | bbl |
| Timestamp | 2026-03-12T05:30:00Z |
| Trigger | Scheduled point-in-time snapshot |
| Trigger Ref | - |
| id | component | category | value | percent | basis | trend | confidence | references |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PA001 | Base crude cost | base-cost | +$70.00 | 69.3% | Pre-disruption fundamental value; production cost floor + margin + pre-war $65-74 range equilibrium | stable | high | - |
| PA002 | Hormuz blockade premium | supply-disruption | +$25.00 | 24.7% | 6-7 mb/d transit halted; IRGC vows "not a litre"; <10% pre-conflict flows; largest disruption in modern oil history | stable-to-increasing | high | geopolitical/2026-03-12 |
| PA003 | Iraq/UAE/Kuwait supply loss | supply-disruption | +$12.00 | 11.9% | Iraq collapsed 4.42→1.2-1.5 mb/d; UAE/Kuwait cutting as storage fills; additional 5+ mb/d combined loss | increasing | high | geopolitical/2026-03-12 |
| PA004 | IEA reserve offset | liquidity-discount | -$8.00 | -7.9% | 400M bbl release (largest ever); US contributing 172M from SPR; starts next week; partial offset to disruption | increasing (more bearish) | medium | policy/2026-03-12 |
| PA005 | War resolution discount | risk-premium | -$5.00 | -4.9% | Trump "practically nothing left"; "soon" rhetoric; 2-4 week timeline; Mojtaba Khamenei as new supreme leader creates negotiation opening | increasing (more bearish) | medium | policy/2026-03-12 |
| PA006 | Speculative/momentum premium | speculative-premium | +$6.00 | 5.9% | Short covering rally from $81.5; FOMO buying on recovery; recovery velocity ratio 1.33 (up-dominant); VIX 30+ attracting momentum chasers | decelerating | medium | positioning/2026-03-12 |
| PA007 | Demand destruction headwind | demand-pull | -$3.00 | -3.0% | NFP -92K; UE 4.4%; ISM Prices 70.5 (stagflation); GDP 1.4% deceleration; oil demand inertia means 2-3 month lag | stable | medium | economic-release/2026-03-12 |
| PA008 | Qatar LNG / risk contagion | risk-premium | +$2.00 | 2.0% | Qatar LNG facility attacked; 20% global LNG flows halted; gas-to-oil substitution; broader regional risk premium | stable | medium | geopolitical/2026-03-12 |
| PA009 | Technical momentum premium | technical-premium | +$3.00 | 3.0% | V-bottom from $81.5; 50% retracement hold at $100.75; institutional re-accumulation confirmed by velocity | decelerating | medium | technical/result |
| PA010 | US domestic surplus | fundamental-premium | -$1.00 | -1.0% | 3rd consecutive crude build (+3.8M bbl to 443.1M); US-specific dynamics largely irrelevant to global Brent | stable | low | inventory/2026-03-12 |
Residual: $0.03/bbl Validation: Components sum to $101.00 vs actual $101.03
| id | instrument | forecastDate | targetDate | targetTimeframe | compositePrice | compositeLow | compositeHigh | compositeConfidence | status | actualClose | error | errorPercent | references |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PF001 | BCO_USD | 2026-03-12 | 2026-03-18 | 4 trading days | 104.08 | 75 | 130 | medium | active | - | - | - | PAT001 |
| track | method | predictedPrice | predictedLow | predictedHigh | confidence | weight | reasoning | references |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| fundamental | scenario-weighted | 100.5 | 75 | 130 | medium | 35 | Scenario-weighted: base ($95-110, 50%) + bull ($115-130, 20%) + bear ($75-90, 30%). Key driver Hormuz blockade duration vs IEA release timeline and war ending rhetoric. | EV001,EV004,EV008 |
| participant | positioning-flow | 106 | 93 | 110 | medium | 25 | Institutional net-long re-accumulating $85-95; targeting $105-107. Commercial hedgers shorting above $100. Net bullish but contested. Velocity ratio 1.33 supports upside. | PO001,PO002 |
| pattern | technical-level | 107 | 93 | 120 | medium | 20 | V-bottom reversal confirmed; measured move 50-62% retracement of $120→$81.5 = $105-$105.4. Supply-shock impulse on W confirms sustained above $100. Exhaustion gap at $93-95 defines downside. | - |
| regime | historical-analog | 105 | 78 | 125 | medium-high | 20 | Supply Shock Breakout Phase 3 plateau $100-110. PATH001 (48%) centers on plateau; PATH003 (22%) targets $78-90 on ceasefire; PATH002 (10%) targets $115-125 on escalation. 2022 Russia-Ukraine analog sustains this range. | EV001,EV004 |
| track | method | predictedPrice | predictedLow | predictedHigh | confidence | weight | reasoning | references |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| fundamental | scenario-weighted | $100.50 | $75.00 | $130.00 | medium | 35 | Scenario-weighted: base ($95-110, 50%) + bull ($115-130, 20%) + bear ($75-90, 30%). Key driver is Hormuz blockade duration vs IEA release timeline. War ending "soon" creates 30% bear scenario weight. | fundamental/result |
| participant | positioning-flow | $106.00 | $93.00 | $110.00 | medium | 25 | Institutional net-long (bullish, high conf), re-accumulated $85-95 zone, targeting $105-107. Commercial hedgers shorting aggressively above $100 — contested zone. Speculative longs riding recovery momentum. Net: bullish but decelerating. | technical/participants |
| pattern | technical-level | $107.00 | $93.00 | $120.00 | medium | 20 | V-bottom reversal confirmed ($81.5 low). Measured move target: 50-62% retracement of $120→$81.5 = $105-$105.4. Supply-shock impulse on W confirms sustained above $100. Bearish exhaustion gap at $93-95 defines downside. | technical/patterns |
| regime | historical-analog | $105.00 | $78.00 | $125.00 | medium-high | 20 | Supply Shock Breakout Phase 3 plateau target $100-110 (updated from $95-105 after IEA release failed to hold prices). PATH001 (48%) centers on $100-110; PATH003 (22%) targets $78-90 on ceasefire; PATH002 (10%) targets $115-125 on escalation. Weighted: ~$105. | regime/result |