| entity | type | weight | basis | confidence | lastUpdated | references |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV001 | event | 35 | Dominant price driver — removes ~6-7 mb/d from global market; largest supply disruption since 1990 Kuwait invasion; as long as blockade holds, prices have a hard floor well above $90; every other factor is secondary | high | 2026-03-12 | EV001,SF001,SF002,SF003,SF004,SF005 |
| EV008 | event | 15 | The single biggest swing variable — if war ends and Hormuz reopens, the entire supply disruption premium unwinds rapidly; 2-4 week timeline creates maximum uncertainty for forward pricing | medium | 2026-03-12 | EV008,SF014,SF015,SF016,SF017 |
| EV002 | event | 12 | 3 mb/d of lost production is massive even in context of broader Hormuz disruption; Iraq's inability to bypass Hormuz via pipeline means this persists as long as blockade does | high | 2026-03-12 | EV002,SF006,SF007,SF008 |
| EV004 | event | 12 | Largest ever coordinated release provides ~60 days of partial offset; creates a bearish ceiling even if it failed to hold prices down initially; releases starting next week will add physical barrels | high | 2026-03-12 | EV004,SF009,SF010,SF011,SF012,SF013 |
| EV003 | event | 8 | Significant additional lost supply (~3-4 mb/d combined) but mechanically linked to Hormuz blockade — not an independent driver | high | 2026-03-12 | EV003,EV001 |
| EV016 | event | 7 | Demand destruction potential if stagflation deepens; NFP -92K + GDP 1.4% + ISM Prices 70.5 is a threatening combination but oil demand inertia means effect is gradual | medium | 2026-03-12 | EV016,SF021,SF022,SF023,SF024 |
| EV009 | event | 4 | Leading indicator of consumption weakness; significant miss but oil demand impact lags by 2-3 months | high | 2026-03-12 | EV009,SF018,SF019,SF020 |
| EV005 | event | 3 | Indirect oil impact via gas-to-oil substitution and broader risk premium; primarily a gas market event | high | 2026-03-12 | EV005,EV015 |
| EV006 | event | 2 | Reflects US-specific dynamics; largely irrelevant to global Brent pricing in current environment | high | 2026-03-12 | EV006 |
| EV013 | event | 1 | Modest demand support; overwhelmed by supply-side factors | high | 2026-03-12 | EV013 |
| EV007 | event | 1 | Trivially small volume in context of ~6-7 mb/d disruption; irrelevant while Hormuz is blocked | high | 2026-03-12 | EV007 |
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Overall Bias | bullish |
| Confidence | medium |
| Time Horizon | 2-4 weeks |
| Key Driver | EV001: Hormuz Strait full blockade removing ~6-7 mb/d from global oil transit — largest supply disruption in modern history |
| Key Risk | EV008: Rapid war cessation and Hormuz reopening within 2 weeks would collapse the ~$27 disruption premium |
| rank | id | name | type | why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | EV001 | Hormuz Strait full blockade | unified-event | 35% influence weight. Dominant price driver — removes ~6-7 mb/d from global market; largest supply disruption since 1990 Kuwait invasion; as long as blockade holds, prices have a hard floor well above $90; every other fact |
| 2 | EV008 | Trump signals war ending "soon" | unified-event | 15% influence weight. The single biggest swing variable — if war ends and Hormuz reopens, the entire supply disruption premium unwinds rapidly; 2-4 week timeline creates maximum uncertainty for forward pricing |
| 3 | EV002 | Iraq production collapse | unified-event | 12% influence weight. 3 mb/d of lost production is massive even in context of broader Hormuz disruption; Iraq's inability to bypass Hormuz via pipeline means this persists as long as blockade does |
| 4 | EV004 | IEA 400M barrel reserve release | unified-event | 12% influence weight. Largest ever coordinated release provides ~60 days of partial offset; creates a bearish ceiling even if it failed to hold prices down initially; releases starting next week will add physical barrels |
| 5 | EV003 | UAE/Kuwait output cuts | unified-event | 8% influence weight. Significant additional lost supply (~3-4 mb/d combined) but mechanically linked to Hormuz blockade — not an independent driver |
| scenario | probability | priceTarget | keyAssumption | keyEvents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base: Prolonged disruption with reserve offset | 50% | $95-110 | Hormuz blockade continues 2-4 more weeks; IEA releases provide partial offset; war winds down gradually with no sudden ceasefire | EV001,EV004,EV002,EV008 |
| Bull: Escalation or reserve inadequacy | 20% | $115-130 | Blockade tightens further or extends beyond 4 weeks; IEA reserves prove insufficient; Iran attacks additional infrastructure (Saudi, other GCC) | EV001,EV003,EV005 |
| Bear: Rapid war end and Hormuz reopening | 30% | $75-90 | Trump achieves quick resolution; Hormuz reopens within 2 weeks; IEA releases flood an already-normalizing market; 400M bbl overshoot | EV008,EV004,EV009,EV016 |
| id | risk | trigger | wouldChangeBiasTo | monitoringSignal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R001 | Sudden ceasefire / Hormuz reopening | Iran capitulates or Trump accepts negotiated terms; US Navy clears mines | bearish | Trump/Iran statements; shipping data through Hormuz; mine-clearing operations announced |
| R002 | Escalation to Saudi/GCC production | Iran strikes Saudi Aramco facilities (Abqaiq-style) or Red Sea corridor | strongly bullish | Iranian missile/drone activity toward Saudi; Houthi escalation; Saudi production reports |
| R003 | IEA reserves deplete faster than expected | Draw rates exceed 6.7 mb/d; coordination breaks down among 32 members | bullish | SPR draw pace; IEA member compliance; days-of-supply calculations |
| R004 | US recession accelerates | NFP continues negative; consumer spending drops; Fed forced into emergency action | bearish | Weekly jobless claims; retail sales; consumer confidence; Fed statements |
| R005 | Iran mines prove harder to clear than expected | Strait reopening delayed weeks beyond war end; shipping insurance remains prohibitive | bullish | Mine-clearing timelines; shipping insurance rates; first tanker transits post-war |
| R006 | Tariff escalation crushes global demand | US-China or US-EU trade war intensifies; ISM Prices stay above 65 | bearish | Trade policy announcements; ISM data; global PMIs |
| priority | id | item | checkFrequency | nextCheck | triggerCondition |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MP001 | Trump/Iran war-ending statements and diplomacy | daily | 2026-03-13 | Any ceasefire announcement, timeline specificity, or negotiation framework |
| 2 | MP002 | Hormuz shipping activity and mine status | daily | 2026-03-13 | Any tanker transit confirmed; mine-clearing operations begin; shipping insurance rates drop |
| 3 | MP003 | IEA reserve release execution pace | weekly | 2026-03-18 | First physical barrels hit market; draw rates from US SPR and other members |
| 4 | MP004 | Iraq/UAE/Kuwait production and export data | weekly | 2026-03-18 | Any production recovery; alternative export routes activated (Turkey pipeline) |
| 5 | MP005 | US economic data (jobless claims, retail sales) | weekly | 2026-03-13 | Claims above 250K; retail sales negative; consumer confidence below 95 |
| 6 | MP006 | PCE Price Index (Jan) | one-time | 2026-03-13 | Surprise above 0.4% MoM would raise stagflation fears; below 0.2% would ease |
| 7 | MP007 | EIA weekly crude inventories | weekly | 2026-03-18 | 4th consecutive build would confirm US oversupply even amid global disruption |