No confirmed recession; ISM Services strong; oil demand inelastic at current prices; primary driver is supply not demand
Phase 1 (Growth Concern) — background risk only
low
Range Consolidation
5
None
Active crisis; extreme volatility; no balanced conditions; polar opposite of consolidation triggers
Not applicable
very low
Price Paths
path
archetype
probability
current_price
target
invalidation
timeline
status
PATH001
Supply Shock Breakout (Phase 3 plateau)
45%
$101
$100-110
$84.00
2-3 weeks
active
PATH002
Supply Shock Breakout (Phase 2 extension)
15%
$101
$115-125
$93.00
1-2 weeks
active
PATH003
Supply Shock Breakout (Phase 4 accelerated)
25%
$101
$78-90
$110.00
1-3 weeks
active
PATH004
Range Consolidation (elevated level)
15%
$101
$93-107
$84.00 or $115.00
2-4 weeks
active
PATH001
Field
Value
Archetype
Supply Shock Breakout — Phase 3 (Supply Response)
Probability
45%
Current Price
$101
Target
$100-110 (plateau zone)
Invalidation
$84.00 (break below crash low confirms demand destruction or ceasefire)
Timeline
2-3 weeks (through late March)
Direction
neutral-to-bullish (oscillation within elevated range)
Roadmap
step
level
action
signal
est_timing
1
$101-102
Current — testing 50% retracement / $100 psychological
Sustained H4 close above $102 with volume
Mar 12-13
2
$105-107
V-bottom measured move target; Mar 9 consolidation zone
Rejection or breakthrough at this level
Mar 14-17
3
$100-110
Plateau formation; market oscillates as IEA releases begin hitting
Daily ranges compress to 2-3%; volume normalizes
Mar 17-26
4
Signal
IEA reserve pace vs Hormuz closure duration determines plateau level
Physical market tightness indicators, inventory data
Ongoing
Rationale
The 2022 Russia-Ukraine analog saw Brent sustain $100-112 for months in Phase 3. Current conditions support a similar plateau: Hormuz remains fully blocked (structural bullish floor), but IEA 400M release + Trump "soon" timeline cap upside. The $120 spike and crash have established a demonstrated ceiling that limits speculative excess. Commercial hedgers are active sellers above $100, creating a soft cap.
Requires escalation catalyst or IEA reserve inadequacy. If Hormuz blockade tightens further (confirmed mining, additional ship attacks) or the war expands to Saudi/UAE infrastructure, the $120 spike could be re-tested. The current recovery impulse ($81.5→$101) has momentum that could carry further if resistance breaks.
Initial ceasefire announcement or credible negotiation framework
Sharp 8-12% gap-down on ceasefire news; IEA releases accelerate
Mar 14-19
3
$78-85
Hormuz reopening confirmed; mine-clearing begins; first tanker transits
Physical market normalizes; spec long liquidation cascades
Mar 19-26
4
$78-82
Residual premium of 5-10% above pre-war $74 persists for weeks
400M IEA release + returning Gulf production creates temporary oversupply
Mar 26+
Rationale
Trump's "practically nothing left" and shortened timeline (2-4 weeks from Day 14) directly support this path. If the war ends quickly, the combination of 400M IEA reserve release hitting a market where Gulf production restarts creates a bearish tsunami. The 2020 Soleimani analog saw $6 premium unwind in 5 sessions. The current premium (~$27 above pre-war $74) would unwind faster than it was built, consistent with the archetype's Phase 4 velocity pattern. The $84 crash showed the market CAN trade here — it was short-lived but demonstrated the downside path exists.
PATH004
Field
Value
Archetype
Range Consolidation (adapted to post-shock environment)
Probability
15%
Current Price
$101
Target
$93-107 range
Invalidation
$84.00 (range break below) or $115.00 (range break above)
Timeline
2-4 weeks
Direction
neutral
Roadmap
step
level
action
signal
est_timing
1
$101-107
Upper range test — resistance from V-bottom measured move zone
Rejection at $105-107 with declining volume
Mar 12-15
2
$93-95
Lower range test — support from Mar 10-11 consolidation
Buyers defend $93; V-bottom structure holds
Mar 15-19
3
$93-107
Range matures; market waits for war resolution clarity
War end triggers downside break OR escalation triggers upside break
Volume surge >2x average at range boundary
Event-dependent
Rationale
If neither escalation nor rapid de-escalation materializes, the market could consolidate in the $93-107 range — the zone defined by the V-bottom recovery. This would be a holding pattern while the market waits for war resolution. The IEA releases provide a soft ceiling (buyers cautious above $105 knowing reserves are coming), while the Hormuz blockade provides a hard floor (sellers cautious below $93 knowing physical disruption persists).