| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| ID | OPP-2026-03-11T00-00-00Z |
| Asset | brent-oil |
| Instrument | BCO_USD |
| Direction | LONG |
| Aggregate Kelly | 0.546 |
| Win Probability | 55% |
| Current Price | $89.96 |
| Included Tiers | T2, T3, T4 |
| Primary Target | $95.00 |
| Secondary Target | $100.00 |
| Stop Loss | $82.00 |
| Invalidation | $82.00 (H4 close below — PATH001 invalidation; crash low $84 minus $2 buffer for S/R trust 0.3) |
| Time Window | 5-10 trading days (primary) / 10-20 trading days (secondary) |
| Active Pattern | - |
| Analysis Date | 2026-03-11 |
| Status | active |
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Win Probability (W) | 55% |
| Derivation | HP1 (30%) + HP2 (25%) = 55% patterns reaching $95 primary target |
| Losing Patterns | MP2 (12%) + LP1 (8%) + LP2 (5%) + LP3 (2%) + None-fit (3%) = 30% |
| Note | MP1 (15%) excluded — resolves at $93-95 boundary, does not clearly sustain above $95 primary target |
| tier | entry | stop | target | R/R | kelly | half_kelly | budget | units | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T1 | $90.00 | $82.00 | $95.00 | 0.625 | -0.170 | 0 | $0 | 0 | EXCLUDED — negative edge |
| T2 | $88.00 | $82.00 | $95.00 | 1.167 | 0.164 | 0.082 | $820 | 9 | included |
| T3 | $85.00 | $82.00 | $95.00 | 3.333 | 0.415 | 0.208 | $2,080 | 24 | included |
| T4 | $83.00 | $82.00 | $95.00 | 12.000 | 0.513 | 0.256 | $2,560 | 30 | included |
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Aggregate Kelly | 0.546 |
| Total Planned Units | 63 |
| Bankroll | $10,000 |
| Total Budget Deployed | $5,460 (54.6% of bankroll) |
| Max Margin | $266.10 / $50,000.00 |
---
| metric | value | source |
|---|---|---|
| Current phase avg up velocity | $1.047/hr | technical/velocity.md Phase 5 |
| Current phase avg down velocity | $0.423/hr | technical/velocity.md Phase 5 |
| Velocity ratio | 2.47 | up-biased (strong bullish) |
| Empirical net daily progress | ~$1.50/day | Phase 5: $84 to $90 in ~1.5 trading days = ~$4/day raw; adjusted for pullbacks |
| Normalized daily estimate | $0.75-1.50/day | After consolidation adjustment (0.4-0.6x theoretical) |
Calculation:
Arrival times:
| target | distance | at_conservative ($0.75/day) | at_aggressive ($1.50/day) | with_consolidation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Primary ($95) from T2 ($88) | $7.00 | 9.3 days | 4.7 days | **5-10 trading days** |
| Primary ($95) from T3 ($85) | $10.00 | 13.3 days | 6.7 days | **7-14 trading days** |
| Secondary ($100) from T2 ($88) | $12.00 | 16.0 days | 8.0 days | **10-18 trading days** |
Brent crude (ICE) trades nearly 24 hours: electronic Sun 6pm - Fri 5pm ET. Peak liquidity windows are the London session (3am-12pm ET) and early US session (9am-2:30pm ET, NYMEX pit hours). Thin-liquidity windows are the Asian session (7pm-3am ET) and weekends (market closed Fri 5pm - Sun 6pm ET).
Key data releases during window:
| release | timing | expected_impact | action |
|---|---|---|---|
| IEA extraordinary meeting | Mar 11 (today) | Binary: $3-8 move on outcome; release = bearish, no release = bullish | DO NOT enter T1 pre-meeting; let outcome determine fill opportunity for T2-T4 |
| CPI (Feb) | Mar 11, 8:30am ET | $1-3 move; hot = stagflation fear (bearish medium-term); cool = relief | Monitor — hot CPI could push price toward T2/T3 entry levels |
| EIA Weekly Petroleum Status | Mar 12, 10:30am ET | $1-2 move; large draw confirms tightness (bullish); build = bearish | Use large draw as confirmation to hold position |
| API Weekly | Mar 11, 4:30pm ET | $0.50-1.00 move; preview of EIA data | Minimal — used for overnight positioning signal |
| Baker Hughes Rig Count | Mar 13, 1:00pm ET | $0.25-0.50 move; minor | Ignore for this window |
Weekend gap risk: The Feb 27-Mar 1 weekend gap was $73.69 to $80.51 (+9.3%). In current extreme volatility, weekend gaps of $2-5 are plausible. Position sizing rule: if holding into weekend, ensure stop loss accounts for potential $5 gap (stop effectively at $82 means gap to $77 could exceed intended risk). Reduce position by 30% before Friday close if still holding, OR accept gap risk if conviction remains high from intraweek price action.
Maximum hold: 15 trading days — exit remaining position regardless. Beyond 3 weeks, the thesis (Phase 3 supply response plateau) has either played out or been invalidated by a new catalyst.
---
| tier | entry_price | S/R_basis | fill_probability | R/R_primary | R/R_secondary | allocation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T1: Market | $90.00 | $90 psychological pivot | 90% | 0.625 | 1.250 | 0% (EXCLUDED — negative Kelly) |
| T2: Pullback | $88.00 | $87-89 emerging support (Mar 9 close $88.84, Mar 10 low $87.47) | 40% | 1.167 | 2.000 | 15% |
| T3: Deep pullback | $85.00 | $84-85 crash low zone (Mar 9 low $84.09, blow-off bottom) | 20% | 3.333 | 5.000 | 38% |
| T4: Extreme | $83.00 | $82-84 structural floor (PATH001 invalidation buffer) | 8% | 12.000 | 17.000 | 47% |
Weighted avg entry (all tiers fill): (9x88 + 24x85 + 30x83) / 63 = (792 + 2040 + 2490) / 63 = $84.48 — R/R: 3.29 (primary) / 4.86 (secondary) Weighted avg entry (T2 only): $88.00 — R/R: 1.17 (primary) / 2.00 (secondary) Weighted avg entry (T2+T3): (9x88 + 24x85) / 33 = (792 + 2040) / 33 = $85.82 — R/R: 2.40 (primary) / 3.71 (secondary)
T1 — Market Entry (fill prob: 90%) — EXCLUDED
T2 — Pullback to Emerging Support (fill prob: 40%)
T3 — Deep Pullback to Crash Zone (fill prob: 20%)
T4 — Extreme Entry at Structural Floor (fill prob: 8%)
| exit_tier | price | S/R_basis | action | position_pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E1 | $93.00 | Pre-parabolic resistance ($93.58 Mar 6 close) — first major resistance | Partial profit — lock in gains; reduce risk | 25% |
| E2 | $95.00 | Primary target — Mar 10 bounce high $95.48; V-bottom measured move | Primary exit — take majority of remaining position | 35% |
| E3 | $100.00 | Secondary target — psychological level; PATH001 Step 3; Phase 3 plateau | Secondary exit — capture extended move | 25% |
| E4 | trailing -$3.00 from high | Trailing stop for remaining position | Capture extreme moves in PATH002 scenario — trailing stop protects gains while allowing upside | 15% |
Exit tiers total 100%. E4 trailing stop captures potential PATH002 escalation spike ($110-130) while protecting against reversal. The -$3.00 trail width reflects current H4 range of $3-6 (set at the lower bound to avoid premature exit from noise).
---
What it looks like: Price holds above $87 support, consolidates at $88-92 for 2-4 sessions as IEA outcome is absorbed, then rallies through $93 resistance on rising volume. The recovery from $84 to $95 (already started) resumes after the consolidation pause, forming a V-bottom with a flat "handle" before the next leg up.
Identification criteria (must see 3 of 4): 1. H4 candles hold above $87 for 6+ consecutive bars (24 hours) after IEA outcome 2. Volume on up-candles exceeds volume on down-candles for 3+ consecutive H4 bars (buying pressure dominant) 3. Velocity ratio remains above 1.5 for 3+ consecutive H4 bars (Phase 5 continuation) 4. Price makes a higher low above $88 (higher than the Mar 10 $87.47 low)
Expected resolution: Breakout above $93-95 resistance within 3-7 trading days, targeting $95-100. Resolution timeline compressed by elevated velocity ($0.7-1.0/hr vs $0.17/hr normal).
Trade management: Hold all filled tiers. Add to position on H4 close above $93 if T2 is the only fill (confirms breakout). Move stop to $88 (breakeven for T2) once price sustains above $93. At $95, execute E1+E2 exits (60% of position). Trail remainder with -$3.00 stop.
What it looks like: Price grinds higher in a series of 2-3 day steps: $88-90 → consolidation → $91-93 → consolidation → $93-95. Each step is driven by a specific catalyst (EIA inventory draw, war headline, IEA follow-up) with consolidation periods between. Unlike HP1, there is no single breakout — it is an incremental climb.
Identification criteria (must see 3 of 4): 1. Each H4 pullback makes a higher low than the previous pullback (stair-step structure) 2. Daily ATR is declining — each step has lower volatility than the previous (regime normalizing) 3. Commercial hedger buying visible at each step-low (inferred from velocity ratio >1.5 on bounces) 4. No single H4 bar moves more than $4 (volatility compression vs Phase 4 peak of $6-8/bar)
Expected resolution: Gradual approach to $95-100 over 7-14 trading days. May stall at $95 for several days before a catalyst pushes to $100.
Trade management: Hold all filled tiers. Do NOT add on breakout — the stair-step is not a momentum pattern. Move stop up with each stair-step low ($87 → $88 → $90). Execute E1 at $93, E2 at $95. Hold remaining for $100 secondary target with trailing stop.
What it looks like: The $87-95 broadening range from Mar 9-10 narrows to $88-93 over 3-5 sessions, then to $89-92. Two-way flow persists — commercial buyers defend the floor, speculative sellers cap the ceiling. Range eventually resolves upward on a catalyst (inventory data, war headline).
Identification criteria (must see 3 of 4): 1. Daily range compresses from $8+ (Mar 9-10) to $4-5 within 3 sessions 2. Both $88 support and $93 resistance are tested at least twice without breaking 3. Velocity ratio oscillates between 0.8-1.5 (balanced flow, not directionally biased) 4. Volume trend is declining — 3 consecutive lower-volume daily bars
Expected resolution: Range break above $93 on Day 5-10, targeting $95-97. OR range break below $88, targeting $84-85 (bearish resolution, 35% probability of the 15%).
Trade management: If range holds, T2 may fill on dips to $88 (range floor). Hold with wide stop at $82. Do NOT chase breakout above $93 — wait for pullback to $91-92 and use it as confirmation entry. If range breaks below $88, cancel T3/T4 if not filled; hold T2 with $82 stop. Reduce position by 50% if range breaks below $87.
What it looks like: Price makes a lower high (below $95) then rolls over, breaking $88 support on selling volume. The blow-off top pattern from Mar 8-9 completes its retest with price approaching the $84 crash low. Commercial buying creates a double bottom at $84-85.
Identification criteria (must see 3 of 4): 1. Price rejects from below $93 on high volume (failed breakout attempt) 2. H4 velocity ratio drops below 0.7 for 3+ consecutive bars (sellers dominant) 3. Daily close below $88 (emerging support broken) 4. Descending staircase pattern resumes: 3+ consecutive lower-high H4 bars below $92
Expected resolution: Retest of $84-85 crash low within 5-10 trading days. If $84 holds (double bottom), reversal to $90+ follows. If $84 breaks, PATH003 activates.
Trade management: T3 and T4 become the primary entries. If T2 already filled at $88, it is underwater — hold with $82 stop (maximum loss $6/unit x 9 units = $54). T3 at $85 and T4 at $83 capture the retest. If $84 holds (double bottom), this becomes the highest-conviction entry point — the crash low defense by commercials confirms structural support.
What it looks like: IEA announces a specific, large coordinated release (2+ mb/d with country-level commitments). Brent drops $5-8 intraday on the headline. Speculative longs liquidate. Price breaks through $88, $85, and tests $80-82 in a cascade. Volume exceeds 300K daily.
Identification criteria (must see 2 of 3): 1. Brent drops more than $5 in a single H4 bar on IEA headline 2. Volume on the selling bar exceeds 80K (matching the Mar 8-9 crash selling bars) 3. Price breaks through 2+ support levels ($88 and $85) within a single session
Expected resolution: Price drops to $78-84 range within 3-5 days. War premium partially unwinds. PATH003 activates.
Trade management: If T2 filled before headline, HOLD with $82 stop — accept the loss ($6/unit x 9 = $54 max). Cancel T3 and T4 immediately — the structural framework has changed. If no tiers filled, CANCEL ALL orders. Reassess from flat after the dust settles. Do NOT catch the falling knife on a coordinated SPR release.
What it looks like: CPI comes in hot (>0.5% MoM), confirming stagflation. Equities crash >3%. Oil follows — demand destruction narrative overwhelms supply tightness. Brent drops to $82-85 over 3-5 sessions as macro contagion spreads.
Identification criteria (must see 2 of 3): 1. CPI > 0.5% MoM AND S&P 500 drops >3% on the day 2. Oil-equity correlation strengthens (Brent drops in lockstep with equities) 3. VIX spikes above 40 (from current 30+)
Expected resolution: Brent declines to $82-85 over 1 week as demand fears dominate. However, supply disruption eventually reasserts — this is a temporary dip if war continues.
Trade management: T3 and T4 may fill. Hold with $82 stop. The demand destruction sell-off is a BUYING opportunity if war continues — commercial hedgers will aggressively buy the dip. Move stop to $80 temporarily to allow wider oscillation. If VIX exceeds 45, reduce position by 50% (systemic risk).
What it looks like: Conflict escalates to Saudi infrastructure (Houthi attack) or second front. Brent spikes to $105-120 in hours. But the spike is sold aggressively — the market has learned from Mar 8 and rejects the spike faster. Price crashes back below $90 within a session.
Identification criteria (must see 2 of 3): 1. Brent moves more than $10 in either direction in a single H4 bar 2. Volume exceeds 100K on a single H4 bar (matching crash peak bars) 3. Price reverses the full move within 2 H4 bars (8 hours) — round-trip
Expected resolution: Net result is approximately flat or slightly higher than pre-spike. Extreme volatility but no sustained directional move.
Trade management: If tiers are filled and price spikes, execute E1-E3 exits at resistance levels during the spike. If price crashes back, re-enter at lower tiers. If tiers are NOT filled and price spikes, do NOT chase — the spike will be sold. Wait for the reversion to fill limit orders.
Definition: Price action does NOT match ANY pre-predicted pattern. An event has occurred outside the analyzed probability distribution.
None-fit identification (ANY ONE is sufficient): 1. Velocity anomaly: H4 velocity exceeds $2.80/hr (Phase 4 peak) in either direction for 3+ consecutive candles — indicates a regime shift beyond the current model 2. Volume anomaly: Daily volume exceeds 500K (exceeding the Mar 8 blow-off peak of 462K) — indicates a market-structure-changing event 3. Gap through multiple S/R: Price gaps through both $88 and $85 simultaneously on a single candle open (Monday gap or session gap) — all intermediate structure is irrelevant 4. Pattern contradiction: Velocity ratio >2.0 (strongly bullish) AND price making lower lows for 3+ H4 bars simultaneously — buying pressure is not translating to price, indicating hidden selling 5. Regime path total failure: Price falls outside ALL regime path ranges simultaneously — below $75 (below all path targets) OR above $130 (above all path ceilings) without a matching catalyst
Action: FULL POSITION EXIT within 1 H4 candle. Do not rationalize. Do not average. Do not wait. Exit at market, accept result, reassess from flat.
---
| open_scenario | price_range | interpretation | action |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gap up | above $92 | IEA no release; market gaps bullish | WAIT — do not chase; T1 still excluded; this invalidates pullback thesis for now |
| Continuation | $88-92 | Neutral open; IEA pending | Place T2 limit at $88, T3 at $85, T4 at $83; monitor IEA outcome |
| Pullback on CPI | $86-88 | Hot CPI triggers dip; support test | T2 may fill; hold with $82 stop; monitor IEA outcome |
| Gap down on IEA | below $86 | IEA coordinated release announced | T3 may fill; if release >2 mb/d, cancel T4 and reassess; if release <1.5 mb/d, hold thesis |
Critical events today:
Volume threshold: daily volume >200K confirms significant directional commitment (vs 214K on Mar 10).
Pattern identification window. By end of Day 3, one of the pre-predicted patterns should be identifiable.
Actions:
Pattern resolution window. One of the pre-predicted patterns should be resolving toward its target.
Stop-trail rules:
Secondary target approach. Only relevant if primary target ($95) reached.
Weekend holds (Mar 14-15, Mar 21-22):
Binary event (IEA meeting Mar 11):
---
1. Price pulls back to T2 ($88) on IEA-driven dip or CPI reaction — limit order fills in thin-liquidity overshooting support 2. Price retests crash low zone ($84-85) and commercial hedger buying visible (velocity ratio >1.5 on H4 bounce from $84-85) — T3 fills 3. V-bottom continuation confirmed: price holds $87+ for 24+ hours post-IEA with bullish velocity and holds T2 at $88
1. IEA announces coordinated release >2 mb/d with specific country commitments — PATH003 activates; cancel all orders below $85; wait for dust to settle 2. Price breaks below $84 on H4 close — crash low structural support has failed; cancel T3/T4 immediately; exit T2 at $82 stop 3. VIX spikes above 45 AND Brent drops in lockstep with equities — systemic risk event; oil-specific analysis is secondary to macro contagion
---
```js // T2: Pullback to emerging support (price) => price <= 88.00
// T3: Deep pullback to crash zone (price) => price <= 85.00
// T4: Extreme entry at structural floor (price) => price <= 83.00 ```
```js // E1: First resistance — partial profit (price) => price >= 93.00
// E2: Primary target (price) => price >= 95.00
// E3: Secondary target (price) => price >= 100.00 ```
```js // Structural stop — H4 close basis (price, context) => context.h4_close && price <= 82.00
// Emergency stop — intraday breach (price) => price <= 78.00
// T4 cancel — crash low broken (price, context) => context.h4_close && price <= 84.00 ```
---
| source | finding | supports |
|---|---|---|
| fundamental/result.md | Base scenario (50%) targets $92-105; weighted fair value $97.20; IEA meeting is fulcrum event | Range bounds — fair value center at $97.20; current $89.96 is extended-low (below fair value) |
| fundamental/result.md | Bear scenario (30%) targets $75-88 requiring coordinated SPR release + ceasefire | Stop level at $82 — below bear scenario low requires both bearish catalysts simultaneously |
| technical/velocity.md | Phase 5 velocity ratio 2.47 — strongest bullish signal in dataset; up-velocity $1.05/hr | Time window derivation — $0.75-1.50/day net progress estimate; 5-10 days to primary target |
| technical/velocity.md | Phase 4 crash peak velocity $2.80/hr down — defines the extreme reference | None-fit protocol — velocity anomaly threshold set at $2.80/hr for 3+ candles |
| technical/patterns.md | $84.00-84.50 crash low defended by 99K+ volume; $93-95 multiple rejections | Entry tiers T3 ($85) and T4 ($83) at crash zone; exit E1 at $93 resistance |
| technical/patterns.md | Broadening range $84-95 forming; blow-off top retest pattern medium reliability | Pattern pre-prediction — MP1 (broadening range) and MP2 (blow-off retest) directly mapped |
| technical/participants.md | Commercial hedgers buying $85-90 aggressively; speculative sellers defending $93-95 | Participant context — structural buyers provide floor for T2/T3 entries; spec sellers define E1 exit |
| regime/result.md | Supply Shock Breakout Phase 3; target $95-105; alignment 72; invalidation $82 | Primary target $95; stop $82; regime confidence supports 55% win probability |
| regime/paths.md | PATH001 (43%) targets $95-105 tracking; PATH002 (18%) targets $110-130 | Exit ladder — E2 at $95 (PATH001), E4 trailing for PATH002 upside capture |
| regime/paths.md | PATH003 (13%) targets $75-84 on IEA release + de-escalation | Stop placement — $82 stop survives initial PATH003 Step 1 ($85-88) but exits before Step 2 ($82-85) |
| kelly-analysis.md | T1 excluded (kelly = -0.170); T2-T4 included; aggregate kelly 0.546 | T1 exclusion — no market-price entry; only pullback entries with positive edge deployed |
| market-structure/classification.md | Supply-shock-rally phase, early; S/R trust 0.3, momentum trust 0.9 | S/R buffer — $82 stop includes $2 buffer below $84 crash low to account for low S/R trust |
Primary risk: IEA coordinated release crashes price through T2 and T3 before positions can be managed.
Secondary risk: Blow-off top retest pattern completes, retesting $84 crash low and potentially breaking it.
Tertiary risk: Regime transition from supply-shock-rally to correction phase (70% probability per market structure).
Kelly note: T1 exclusion means NO capital is deployed at current market price ($90). The entire position depends on pullback fills at T2-T4. If no pullback occurs and price rallies directly to $95+, this opportunity produces $0 profit — a missed trade, not a loss. The Kelly framework correctly identifies that the current price does not offer sufficient edge for entry. Aggregate Kelly of 0.546 across T2-T4 confirms strong edge at pullback levels, but the fill probability-weighted expected deployment is $820 (T2 only, 40% probability), not the full $5,460.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| ID | OPP-2026-03-12T05-16-10Z |
| Asset | brent oil |
| Instrument | BCO_USD |
| Direction | LONG |
| Aggregate Kelly | 0.704 |
| Win Probability | 60% |
| Current Price | $99.58 |
| Included Tiers | T1, T2, T3, T4 |
| Primary Target | $105.00 |
| Secondary Target | $109.00 |
| Stop Loss | $93.00 (T1) / $88.00 (T2) / $81.00 (T3-T4) |
| Invalidation | $81.00 (H4 close below crash low — regime invalidation) |
| Time Window | 4-6 trading days (primary) / 6-9 trading days (secondary) |
| Active Pattern | - |
| Analysis Date | 2026-03-12 |
| Status | active |
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Win Probability (W) | 60% |
| Derivation | HP1 (35%) + HP2 (25%) = 60% patterns reaching $105 |
| Losing Patterns | MP1 (15%) + MP2 (10%) + LP1 (10%) + LP3 (2%) + None-fit (3%) = 40% |
| Note | LP2 (3%) excluded — reaches $110-115 but low probability; conservative exclusion |
| tier | entry | stop | target | R/R | kelly | half_kelly | budget | units | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T1 | $99.50 | $93.00 | $105.00 | 0.846 | 0.127 | 0.064 | $640 | 6 | INCLUDED |
| T2 | $95.00 | $88.00 | $105.00 | 1.429 | 0.320 | 0.160 | $1,600 | 16 | INCLUDED |
| T3 | $88.50 | $81.00 | $105.00 | 2.200 | 0.418 | 0.209 | $2,090 | 23 | INCLUDED |
| T4 | $84.00 | $81.00 | $105.00 | 7.000 | 0.543 | 0.271 | $2,710 | 32 | INCLUDED |
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Aggregate Kelly | 0.704 |
| Total Planned Units | 77 |
| Bankroll | $10,000 |
| Total Budget Deployed | $7,040 (70.4% of bankroll) |
| Max Margin | $342 / $50,000 |
---
| metric | value | source |
|---|---|---|
| Current phase avg up velocity | $0.699/hr | technical/velocity.md Recovery Phase (Mar 10-12) |
| Current phase avg down velocity | $0.527/hr | technical/velocity.md Recovery Phase (Mar 10-12) |
| Velocity ratio | 1.33 (up-dominant) | up-biased — institutional re-accumulation |
| Empirical net daily progress | $9.75/day (impulse) → $1.50-2.50/day (decelerating) | $81.5→$101 in 2 days, now decelerating at $101 |
| Normalized daily estimate | $1.50-$2.50/day | After consolidation adjustment (×0.5 for deceleration at resistance) |
Arrival times:
| target | distance | at_conservative ($1.50/d) | at_aggressive ($2.50/d) | with_consolidation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Primary ($105) | $5.42 | 3.6 days | 2.2 days | **4-6 trading days** |
| Secondary ($109) | $9.42 | 6.3 days | 3.8 days | **6-9 trading days** |
Brent crude (BCO_USD) trades nearly 24 hours, 5 days/week:
Key data releases during window:
| release | timing | expected_impact | action |
|---|---|---|---|
| PCE Price Index (Jan) | Fri Mar 13 | $2-3 move on surprise; stagflation read | Pre-position: hold T1 through if already filled; use gap for T2 fill if bearish surprise |
| EIA Weekly Crude Inventories | Wed Mar 18 | $1-2 move; 4th consecutive build bearish | Watch for T2 fill opportunity on bearish surprise |
| IEA Reserve First Drawdown | Week of Mar 16 | $2-4 move potential; market focus event | Physical barrels arriving — headwind if larger than expected |
| Trump/Iran Statements | Daily | $5-15 move on ceasefire; binary | Cannot be pre-positioned; defined by none-fit protocol |
Weekend gap risk: High. The $120→$84 crash included a gap component. Mar 14-15 weekend carries ceasefire risk (Trump rhetoric intensifying). Position sizing rule: T1 only through first weekend; do not add T2-T4 limit orders until Mon Mar 16 open confirms no ceasefire gap.
Maximum hold: 9 trading days (Mar 25) — exit remaining position regardless.
---
| tier | entry_price | S/R_basis | fill_probability | R/R_primary | R/R_secondary | allocation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T1: Market | $99.50 | $100 psychological + 50% retracement ($100.75) | 85% | 0.846 | 1.462 | 8% |
| T2: Pullback | $95.00 | $93-95 consolidation base + gap fill zone | 35% | 1.429 | 2.000 | 21% |
| T3: Deep pullback | $88.50 | $88-91 V-bottom absorption zone (89K volume candle) | 12% | 2.200 | 2.733 | 27% |
| T4: Extreme | $84.00 | $81.5-84 crash low structural floor | 7% | 7.000 | 8.333 | 35% |
Weighted avg entry (all tiers): $90.16 — R/R primary: 1.837 / R/R secondary: 2.399 Weighted avg entry (T1+T2 only): $98.27 — R/R primary: 0.955 / R/R secondary: 1.495
T1 — Market Entry (fill prob: 85%)
T2 — Pullback (fill prob: 35%)
T3 — Deep Pullback (fill prob: 12%)
T4 — Extreme (fill prob: 7%)
| exit_tier | price | S/R_basis | action | position_pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E1 | $102.00 | H4 breakout confirmation; pivot high $101.98 | Partial profit — lock in T1 cost basis | 20% |
| E2 | $105.00 | Primary target — V-bottom measured move, regime plateau center | Major exit — primary thesis realized | 35% |
| E3 | $109.00 | Secondary target — Mar 8-9 gap fill, 62% Fibonacci + extension | Secondary exit — extended thesis | 25% |
| E4 | trailing -$3.00 from high | Trailing stop | Capture extreme moves (PATH002 escalation) | 20% |
Exit tiers total 100%. E4 trailing stop kicks in after E1 fills and follows the highest price achieved minus $3.00.
---
What it looks like: Price consolidates at $99-102 for 1-2 days, forms a tight H4 range (< $2 width), then breaks above $102 on volume. Subsequent advance is measured and orderly — $1-2/day progress with shallow pullbacks ($0.50-1.00) absorbed within each session.
Identification criteria (must see 3 of 4): 1. H4 range compresses to < $2.00 for 3+ consecutive candles at $99-102 2. Volume on breakout H4 candle > 25K (vs recent avg ~15K) 3. First H4 close above $102.00 holds on retest (no immediate reversal below $101) 4. Velocity ratio in breakout phase > 1.5 (up-dominant acceleration)
Expected resolution: $105-107 in 3-4 trading days from breakout. Then consolidation at $104-107 for 2-3 days before continuation or reversal.
Trade management:
What it looks like: Price retraces from $101 to $95-97 (filling bearish exhaustion gap), holds at support, forms a rounded bottom over 2-3 days, then rallies back to $101 and breaks through to $105. Classic cup-and-handle formation.
Identification criteria (must see 3 of 4): 1. Price retraces to $95-97 zone within 2 trading days 2. $93-95 support holds — no H4 close below $93.00 3. Volume spikes on initial selloff then declines during rounding bottom 4. Recovery rally from $95-97 shows velocity ratio > 1.2 (up-dominant)
Expected resolution: $105-107 in 5-7 trading days from initial $95 fill. Cup completion takes 3-4 days, handle forms at $100-102, breakout to $105.
Trade management:
What it looks like: Price oscillates in $95-103 range for 5-7 trading days. No clear directional breakout. Multiple tests of both boundaries without sustained break. Daily ATR compresses from 5-8% to 2-3%.
Identification criteria (must see 2 of 3): 1. Price touches both $95 and $101-103 within 3 trading days without breaking either 2. Daily ATR compresses below 3% for 2 consecutive days 3. H4 velocity ratio stays between 0.8 and 1.2 (no directional dominance)
Expected resolution: Eventually breaks in direction of fundamentals (likely up if Hormuz persists). Target $105-107 if upside break, $88-93 if downside. Timeline: 7-10 trading days.
Trade management:
What it looks like: Price advances to $103-105 with narrowing momentum (each push higher is weaker). Volume declines on each new high. Then sharp reversal back to $93-95 in 1-2 days. Classic distribution-then-markdown.
Identification criteria (must see 3 of 4): 1. Price makes 3 progressively higher H4 highs ($101, $103, $105) with declining volume 2. Each new H4 high has shorter upward wick and wider downward wick (exhaustion) 3. H4 close above $103 immediately followed by close below $101 (failed breakout) 4. Velocity ratio drops below 0.8 after reaching $103+ (sellers taking over)
Expected resolution: Reversal to $93-95. Timeline: 1-3 trading days from peak. May fill T2.
Trade management:
What it looks like: Weekend or overnight gap down of $8-15 on ceasefire announcement. Price opens at $85-93, may spike briefly to $88-95 on shorts covering, then drifts lower toward $78-85 as war premium unwinds over days.
Identification criteria (ANY 1 is sufficient): 1. Gap down > $8 from prior close on confirmed ceasefire/negotiation headline 2. Trading resumes with volume > 3x average in first H4 candle (liquidation cascade)
Expected resolution: $78-85 in 3-7 trading days. War premium unwinds completely.
Trade management:
What it looks like: New escalation catalyst (Iran strikes Saudi, Red Sea closure, mine-clearing failure) drives price through $107→$110→$115+ in 1-2 days. Extreme volume, gap-up opens, FOMO buying cascade.
Identification criteria (must see 2 of 2): 1. Price gaps above $107 on open with volume > 50K in first H4 candle 2. New geopolitical catalyst confirmed (not just headline noise)
Expected resolution: $115-125 in 2-5 trading days. Potential re-test of $120 spike high.
Trade management:
What it looks like: Second liquidation event drives price to $81-85 within hours. Could be triggered by margin call cascade, exchange circuit breaker failure, or simultaneous ceasefire + IEA acceleration headline.
Identification criteria (ANY 1 is sufficient): 1. Price drops > $12 in a single H4 candle (exceeds Mar 9 crash velocity) 2. Price breaks below $84 intraday with volume > 80K
Expected resolution: Uncertain — could be V-bottom redux (bounce to $90+) or sustained break (drop to $75).
Trade management:
Definition: Price action does NOT match ANY pre-predicted pattern. An event has occurred outside the analyzed probability distribution.
None-fit identification (ANY ONE is sufficient): 1. Velocity anomaly: H4 velocity exceeds $2.80/hr (the Mar 9 crash peak) in either direction for 3+ consecutive candles — indicates a market-structure-changing event exceeding the worst observed 2. Volume anomaly: Daily volume exceeds 200K contracts (>3x the Mar 9 crash peak of ~100K per H4) — indicates unprecedented liquidation or accumulation 3. Gap through multiple S/R: Price gaps through 2+ S/R levels simultaneously (e.g., from $101 straight to $85 without touching $95 or $88) — all intermediate structure is irrelevant 4. Pattern contradiction: Simultaneous bullish and bearish signals within 1 H4 session — e.g., gap up to $105 followed by reversal to $93 in same candle, creating a $12 wick 5. Regime path total failure: Price falls outside ALL regime path ranges simultaneously — below $78 (PATH003 floor) or above $130 (PATH002 ceiling + tail)
Action: FULL POSITION EXIT within 1 H4 candle. Do not rationalize. Do not average. Do not wait. Exit at market, accept result, reassess from flat.
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| open_scenario | price_range | interpretation | action |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gap up | above $102 | V-bottom breakout confirming, stair-step initiating | Execute T1 at market if not already filled; cancel T3/T4 orders; E1 at $105 |
| Continuation | $98-$102 | Neutral consolidation at 50% retracement | Execute T1 at $99.50 limit; place T2 at $95 GTC; watch PCE data |
| Pullback | $95-$98 | Gap fill starting; HP2 cup formation initiating | T1 fills at $99.50 (or market); T2 approaches; hold |
| Gap down | below $95 | PCE shock or ceasefire rumor; LP1 risk | Do NOT enter T1; wait for support confirmation at $93; reassess |
Volume threshold: H4 volume > 15K for pattern confirmation on any directional move.
PCE Price Index release (Mar 13): Above 0.4% MoM = stagflation fear, bearish $2-3 move → T2 fill opportunity. Below 0.2% = relief, bullish $1-2 move → supports T1 holding.
Pattern identification window. By end of Day 3, one of HP1/HP2/MP1/MP2 should be identifiable.
Checklist:
Post-weekend assessment: If no ceasefire headline over weekend, resume normal monitoring. Place T2/T3/T4 limit orders if not already placed.
IEA reserve drawdown begins: Watch for first physical barrels hitting market. If draw pace faster than expected, bearish pressure — supports T2 fill.
Pattern resolution phase. Primary target approach expected.
EIA Weekly Inventories (Wed Mar 18): 4th consecutive build would be bearish, $1-2 downside. Supports T2 fill if not already filled.
Stop trail rules: After E1 fills ($102), move T1 stop from $93 to $99 (lock in near-breakeven). After E2 fills ($105), move all stops to $102 (lock in profit).
Secondary target / extended hold. Only relevant if primary target reached and position held.
Weekend of Mar 14-15: HIGH risk. Trump "soon" rhetoric, Day 16 of war. Ceasefire headline probability: 10-15%.
Weekend of Mar 21-22: MODERATE risk. War Day 23. If still no ceasefire, probability decreases.
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1. Price is at or below $99.50 during London session with H4 volume > 10K (T1 execution) 2. Price retraces to $95 zone with $93 support holding on H4 close basis (T2 execution) 3. H4 velocity ratio remains > 1.0 (up-dominant — recovery impulse persists) 4. No ceasefire headline in past 24 hours
1. Ceasefire or negotiation framework announced (LP1 pattern — stay flat) 2. H4 close below $93.00 (support structure broken — wait for new base) 3. Volume on latest H4 candle < 5K at $99-101 (no participation — dead cat bounce risk) 4. VIX drops below 20 (geopolitical risk premium collapsing — war resolution priced in)
Primary: H4 close below $81.50 — crash low. Regime invalidation. Exit all positions immediately. Secondary: Two consecutive D closes below $88 — V-bottom structure failed. Exit T1/T2, maintain T3/T4 only.
---
```js // T1: Market entry at $99.50 (price) => price <= 99.50
// T2: Pullback to gap fill zone (price) => price <= 95.00
// T3: Deep pullback to V-bottom absorption (price) => price <= 88.50
// T4: Extreme entry at crash low proximity (price) => price <= 84.00 ```
```js // E1: H4 breakout confirmation — 20% partial (price) => price >= 102.00
// E2: Primary target — 35% major exit (price) => price >= 105.00
// E3: Secondary target — 25% exit (price) => price >= 109.00
// E4: Trailing stop — 20% remaining // Implemented as trailing_stop with distance $3.00 ```
```js // T1 structural stop — H4 close basis (price) => price <= 93.00
// T2 structural stop — H4 close basis (price) => price <= 88.00
// T3/T4 regime invalidation — H4 close basis (price) => price <= 81.00
// Emergency stop — intraday breach (any tier) (price) => price <= 80.00 ```
---
| source | finding | supports |
|---|---|---|
| fundamental/result.md | Base case $95-110 (50%), bear $75-90 (30%), bull $115-130 (20%) | Range bounds: tradeable range $93-$108, fair value $100.50 |
| fundamental/result.md | Key driver: Hormuz blockade 35% weight | Entry thesis: supply disruption premium supports LONG above $90 |
| fundamental/influence-weights.md | War ending "soon" at 15% weight | Stop placement: ceasefire unwind risk defines $81-$93 stop zone |
| technical/velocity.md | Recovery velocity ratio 1.33 (up-dominant), avg $0.699/hr up | Time window: $5 move to $105 achievable in 3-5 trading days |
| technical/patterns.md | V-bottom confirmed, measured move target $105-107 | Primary target: $105. Entry tier S/R at $95, $88.50, $84 |
| technical/patterns.md | $93-95 consolidation base (high significance support) | T1 stop at $93: structural support below entry |
| technical/participants.md | Institutional net-long, re-accumulated $85-95, targeting $105-107 | Participant alignment: institutional buying supports LONG thesis |
| technical/participants.md | Commercial hedgers shorting above $100 | Entry timing: R/R improves on pullbacks; T2-T4 capture hedging-driven retracements |
| regime/result.md | Supply Shock Breakout Phase 3, target $100-110, alignment 82 | Regime adjustment: core zone shifted to $100-110; $99.58 is extended-low |
| regime/paths.md | PATH001 plateau 48%, PATH003 ceasefire 22% | Pattern mapping: HP1+HP2 = 60% win (PATH001); LP1 = 10% loss (PATH003) |
| kelly-analysis.md | T1 half-kelly 0.064 (6 units), T2 0.160 (16 units), T3 0.209 (23 units), T4 0.271 (32 units) | Sizing: small position at market, scale in on pullbacks where edge is 3-4x better |
Primary risk: Ceasefire/Hormuz reopening (22% probability). If war ends within 2 weeks, price unwinds to $78-90. T1 loss: 6 × ($99.50 - $93.00) = $39 at stop. T2 loss: 16 × ($95 - $88) = $112 if filled. Total worst case (T1+T2 stopped): $151. If gap through stops: 6 × ($99.50 - $85) = $87 (slippage).
Secondary risk: Consolidation (MP1, 15%). Price ranges $95-103 for 7+ days without reaching primary target. Time decay on thesis. Management: tighten stops, wait for breakout, exit at maximum hold (Mar 25).
Tertiary risk: Commercial hedging caps rally (MP2, 10%). Price reaches $103-105 but fails to sustain, reverses to $93-95. E1 at $102 captures partial profit; remaining position stopped. Expected P&L: E1 profit ($2.50 × 1.2 units) minus stop loss on remainder.
Kelly note: All 4 tiers are included but the position is heavily back-loaded: T1 deploys only $640 (6 units) at current prices because the R/R is 0.85:1. The bulk of the Kelly allocation ($4,800 of $7,040) deploys at T3 and T4 which have < 20% combined fill probability. Expected deployment (probability-weighted): $1,545 / 15.7 units. This is a disciplined "scale-in on pullbacks" approach — the methodology correctly identifies that the real edge is at lower price levels, not at the current contested $99-102 zone.