| id | name | parent | category | temporalState | realizationStatus | value | trend | significance | direction | magnitude | duration | probability | confidence | date | startDate | projectedEnd | leadTime | leadTimeBasis | sourceType | lastUpdated | topics | sources | evidenceFor | evidenceAgainst | leadTimeEvidence | references |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV001 | Qatar LNG halt — Ras Laffan complex shut | - | supply | present | confirmed | 20% of global LNG supply offline | stable | high | bullish | major | short | - | high | 2026-03-13 | 2026-02-28 | 2026-04-15 | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | supply,lng,qatar,disruption | S001,S002 | SF001,SF002,SF003,SF004 | - | - | EV002 |
| EV002 | Hormuz Strait blockage — limited traffic testing passage | - | supply | present | confirmed | Commercial passage blocked | stable | high | bullish | major | short | - | high | 2026-03-13 | 2026-02-28 | 2026-04-01 | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | supply,hormuz,geopolitical | S001,S003 | SF005,SF006,SF007 | SF007 | - | EV001,EV006 |
| EV003 | US gas production growth to 118 Bcf/d for 2026 | - | supply | present | confirmed | 118 Bcf/d production forecast | increasing | medium | bearish | moderate | structural | - | high | 2026-03-13 | - | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | supply,production,domestic | S004 | - | - | - | - |
| EV004 | US LNG export capacity rising to ~19 Bcf/d | - | supply | present | confirmed | ~19 Bcf/d export capacity | increasing | medium | bearish-domestic/bullish-global | moderate | structural | - | high | 2026-03-13 | - | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | supply,lng,exports,capacity | S004,S005 | SF012 | - | - | EV008 |
| EV005 | QatarEnergy delays LNG expansion to 2027 | - | supply | present | confirmed | Expansion delayed to 2027 | stable | medium | bullish | moderate | sustained | - | high | 2026-03-13 | 2026-03-12 | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | supply,lng,qatar,long-term | S002 | - | - | - | EV001 |
| EV006 | War winding down — "practically nothing left" to target | - | supply | present | confirmed | War ending in 2-4 weeks | fading | high | bearish | moderate | short | - | medium | 2026-03-13 | 2026-02-28 | 2026-03-31 | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | geopolitical,war,iran,normalization | S001,S006,S007 | SF008,SF009 | SF010 | - | EV001,EV002 |
| EV007 | IEA 400M barrel reserve release | - | supply | present | confirmed | 400M barrels being released | stable | low | bearish | major | transient | - | high | 2026-03-13 | 2026-03-11 | 2026-05-01 | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | supply,oil,reserves,policy | S008 | - | - | - | - |
| EV008 | European TTF prices +50% since conflict — demand pull for US LNG | - | demand | present | confirmed | TTF +50% since Feb 28 | stable | high | bullish | major | short | - | high | 2026-03-13 | 2026-02-28 | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | demand,lng,europe,exports | S002,S009 | SF011,SF012,SF013 | SF013 | - | EV001,EV004 |
| EV009 | Milder weather reducing heating demand | - | demand | present | confirmed | Heating demand -21% WoW | fading | high | bearish | moderate | transient | - | high | 2026-03-13 | 2026-03-05 | 2026-03-31 | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | demand,weather,seasonal | S010 | SF014,SF015 | - | - | - |
| EV010 | US economic weakness — NFP -92K, unemployment 4.4% | - | demand | past | confirmed | NFP -92K, unemployment 4.4% | stable | medium | bearish | moderate | short | - | high | 2026-03-06 | - | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | demand,economic,employment | S011 | SF016,SF017,SF018 | - | - | EV012 |
| EV011 | ISM Services PMI strong at 56.1 | - | demand | past | confirmed | ISM Services 56.1 beat | improving | low | bullish | minor | short | - | high | 2026-03-05 | - | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | demand,economic,services | S012 | - | - | - | EV010 |
| EV012 | Q4 2025 GDP deceleration to 1.4% | - | demand | past | confirmed | Q4 GDP 1.4% | declining | medium | bearish | moderate | short | - | high | 2026-02-20 | - | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | demand,economic,gdp | S013 | - | - | - | EV010 |
| EV013 | EIA STEO forecast Henry Hub $3.80 avg for 2026 | - | demand | present | confirmed | Henry Hub $3.80 avg forecast | declining | medium | bearish | moderate | sustained | - | high | 2026-03-10 | - | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | price,forecast,eia | S004 | - | - | - | - |
| EV014 | VIX elevated ~30+ on stagflation fears | - | demand | present | confirmed | VIX ~30+ | stable | low | bearish | minor | short | - | high | 2026-03-13 | - | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | sentiment,volatility,risk | S014 | - | - | - | - |
| id | source | author | type | date | quote | audience | credibility | impact | references |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S001 | Al Jazeera | - | news-report | 2026-03-12 | Iran IRGC still mining strait; some vessels testing passage | public | high | confirms Hormuz blockage ongoing | EV001,EV002 |
| S002 | Bloomberg | - | news-report | 2026-03-11 | Qatar LNG halt extends to longest since at least 2008; QatarEnergy delays expansion to 2027 | public | high | confirms supply disruption severity | EV001,EV005,EV008 |
| S003 | Bloomberg | - | news-report | 2026-03-12 | Insurance costs prohibitive for commercial Hormuz passage | public | high | confirms blockage economic reality | EV002 |
| S004 | EIA STEO | - | official-report | 2026-03-10 | Henry Hub avg $3.80 for 2026, down 13% from prior forecast; production to 118 Bcf/d | public | high | authoritative price and supply forecast | EV003,EV004,EV013 |
| S005 | S&P Global | - | data-provider | 2026-03-13 | Feedgas averaging ~18 Bcf/d; Corpus Christi Stage 3 online | public | high | confirms LNG export capacity | EV004 |
| S006 | CBS News | - | news-report | 2026-03-11 | Trump says war will end soon; practically nothing left to target | public | medium | signals war wind-down | EV006 |
| S007 | Axios | - | news-report | 2026-03-12 | US war expected 2-4 more weeks | public | medium | confirms wind-down timeline | EV006 |
| S008 | IEA | - | official-report | 2026-03-11 | Record 400M barrel reserve release agreed; US contributing 172M bbl | public | high | confirms coordinated response | EV007 |
| S009 | CNBC | - | news-report | 2026-03-11 | TTF +50% since conflict start; European buyers seeking US LNG | public | high | confirms demand pull | EV008 |
| S010 | EIA | - | official-report | 2026-03-12 | Natural gas storage -40 Bcf vs -44 expected; heating demand dropped 21% | public | high | confirms bearish near-term demand | EV009 |
| S011 | BLS | - | official-report | 2026-03-06 | NFP -92K vs +55K expected; unemployment 4.4% | public | high | confirms economic weakness | EV010 |
| S012 | ISM | - | official-report | 2026-03-05 | Services PMI 56.1 vs 53.5 expected | public | high | partial offset to employment weakness | EV011 |
| S013 | BEA | - | official-report | 2026-02-20 | Q4 2025 GDP 1.4% vs 4.4% Q3 | public | high | confirms economic deceleration | EV012 |
| S014 | CBOE | - | market-data | 2026-03-13 | VIX ~30+, elevated on stagflation fears | public | high | confirms risk-off sentiment | EV014 |
| id | subFactor | parent | type | valueEvidence | status | leadTime | startDate | projectedEnd | lastUpdated | sources | references |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF001 | Ras Laffan complex physically shut down since conflict start | EV001 | action | QatarEnergy declared force majeure; complex confirmed offline since ~Feb 28 | confirmed | - | 2026-02-28 | 2026-04-15 | 2026-03-13 | S001,S002 | EV001 |
| SF002 | Qatar represents 20% of global LNG supply | EV001 | capability | Bloomberg Mar 11-12 confirms Qatar is world's largest LNG exporter | confirmed | - | - | - | 2026-03-13 | S002 | EV001 |
| SF003 | Restart requires 2-4 weeks minimum | EV001 | constraint | Ras Laffan requires "100% certainty" of safe passage before restart; complex restart procedures take weeks | confirmed | - | - | - | 2026-03-13 | S001,S002 | EV001 |
| SF004 | Restart contingent on Hormuz reopening | EV001 | constraint | LNG tankers must transit Hormuz; no restart until passage confirmed safe | confirmed | - | - | - | 2026-03-13 | S001 | EV001 |
| SF005 | Iran actively mining the strait | - | action | Iran IRGC confirmed mining operations; Al Jazeera/Bloomberg Mar 12 | confirmed | - | 2026-02-28 | - | 2026-03-13 | S001 | - |
| SF006 | Insurance costs prohibitive for commercial passage | - | constraint | Bloomberg confirms insurance premiums make passage economically unviable | confirmed | - | - | - | 2026-03-13 | S003 | - |
| SF007 | Some vessels testing passage | - | action | Limited traffic attempting passage but not at commercial scale; risk remains high | partial | - | - | - | 2026-03-13 | S001 | - |
| SF008 | Trump stated war will end in 2-4 weeks | EV006 | intention | CBS/Axios Mar 11-12: Trump says "practically nothing left" to target | confirmed | - | - | - | 2026-03-13 | S006,S007 | EV006 |
| SF009 | Military intensity declining | EV006 | action | Multiple sources Mar 12-13 confirm reduced strike activity | confirmed | - | - | - | 2026-03-13 | S006 | EV006 |
| SF010 | Mojtaba Khamenei named new supreme leader — Trump "not happy" | EV006 | action | Fox News Mar 10-11; leadership change introduces uncertainty about war duration | confirmed | - | - | - | 2026-03-13 | S006 | EV006 |
| SF011 | European buyers seeking alternative LNG sources | - | action | TTF prices +50% since Feb 28; Europe actively bidding for cargoes | confirmed | - | - | - | 2026-03-13 | S009 | - |
| SF012 | US LNG export capacity available to meet demand | - | capability | Corpus Christi Stage 3 online; feedgas ~18 Bcf/d; capacity rising to ~19 Bcf/d | confirmed | - | - | - | 2026-03-13 | S004,S005 | - |
| SF013 | US Henry Hub relatively insulated due to domestic production | - | constraint | EIA STEO explicitly notes US gas insulated from Hormuz disruption | confirmed | - | - | - | 2026-03-13 | S004 | - |
| SF014 | Heating demand dropped 21% week-over-week | EV009 | action | EIA storage report Mar 12 shows -40 Bcf vs -44 expected | confirmed | - | - | - | 2026-03-13 | S010 | EV009 |
| SF015 | End of withdrawal season approaching | EV009 | constraint | Late winter; storage ending near 5-year avg ~1,840 Bcf | confirmed | - | - | - | 2026-03-13 | S010 | EV009 |
| SF016 | NFP printed -92,000 vs +55,000 expected | - | action | BLS released Mar 6; largest monthly job loss since pandemic | confirmed | - | - | - | 2026-03-13 | S011 | - |
| SF017 | Unemployment rate jumped to 4.4% from 4.1% | - | action | BLS Mar 6; highest since Oct 2021 | confirmed | - | - | - | 2026-03-13 | S011 | - |
| SF018 | DOGE layoffs contributing to job losses | - | action | Cited as significant factor; specific magnitude unclear | partial | - | - | - | 2026-03-13 | S011 | - |