Natural Gas — Full Analysis

Analysis date: 2026-03-13 | Source: natural-gas-2026-03-13.md

Sections: Events & Drivers Fundamental Analysis Technical Analysis Regime Analysis Forecasts & Attribution

Field	Value
Asset	Natural Gas
Class	Energy Commodity
Ticker	-
Related	UNG (United States Natural Gas Fund ETF), BOIL (ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Natural Gas), KOLD (ProShares UltraShort Natural Gas), TTF (European benchmark), JKM (Asian LNG benchmark), XLE (Energy Select Sector ETF)
Analysis Date	2026-03-13
Data Freshness	2026-03-13T12:30:00Z

Track Validity

track	created	lastValidated	validFrom	validTo	tradingDays	calendarDays
Fundamental	2026-03-13T12:00:00Z	2026-03-13T12:00:00Z	2026-03-13	2026-03-27	10	14
Technical	2026-03-13T12:00:00Z	2026-03-13T12:00:00Z	2026-03-13	2026-03-20	5	7
Regime	2026-03-13T12:30:00Z	2026-03-13T12:30:00Z	2026-03-13	2026-03-27	10	14
Market Structure	2026-03-13T10:30:00Z	2026-03-13T10:30:00Z	2026-03-13	2026-03-17	3	4

Unified Events

id	name	parent	category	temporalState	realizationStatus	value	trend	significance	direction	magnitude	duration	probability	confidence	date	startDate	projectedEnd	leadTime	leadTimeBasis	sourceType	lastUpdated	topics	sources	evidenceFor	evidenceAgainst	leadTimeEvidence	references
EV001	Qatar LNG halt — Ras Laffan complex shut	-	supply	present	confirmed	20% of global LNG supply offline	stable	high	bullish	major	short	-	high	2026-03-13	2026-02-28	2026-04-15	-	-	llm-search	2026-03-13	supply,lng,qatar,disruption	S001,S002	SF001,SF002,SF003,SF004	-	-	EV002
EV002	Hormuz Strait blockage — limited traffic testing passage	-	supply	present	confirmed	Commercial passage blocked	stable	high	bullish	major	short	-	high	2026-03-13	2026-02-28	2026-04-01	-	-	llm-search	2026-03-13	supply,hormuz,geopolitical	S001,S003	SF005,SF006,SF007	SF007	-	EV001,EV006
EV003	US gas production growth to 118 Bcf/d for 2026	-	supply	present	confirmed	118 Bcf/d production forecast	increasing	medium	bearish	moderate	structural	-	high	2026-03-13	-	-	-	-	llm-search	2026-03-13	supply,production,domestic	S004	-	-	-	-
EV004	US LNG export capacity rising to ~19 Bcf/d	-	supply	present	confirmed	~19 Bcf/d export capacity	increasing	medium	bearish-domestic/bullish-global	moderate	structural	-	high	2026-03-13	-	-	-	-	llm-search	2026-03-13	supply,lng,exports,capacity	S004,S005	SF012	-	-	EV008
EV005	QatarEnergy delays LNG expansion to 2027	-	supply	present	confirmed	Expansion delayed to 2027	stable	medium	bullish	moderate	sustained	-	high	2026-03-13	2026-03-12	-	-	-	llm-search	2026-03-13	supply,lng,qatar,long-term	S002	-	-	-	EV001
EV006	War winding down — "practically nothing left" to target	-	supply	present	confirmed	War ending in 2-4 weeks	fading	high	bearish	moderate	short	-	medium	2026-03-13	2026-02-28	2026-03-31	-	-	llm-search	2026-03-13	geopolitical,war,iran,normalization	S001,S006,S007	SF008,SF009	SF010	-	EV001,EV002
EV007	IEA 400M barrel reserve release	-	supply	present	confirmed	400M barrels being released	stable	low	bearish	major	transient	-	high	2026-03-13	2026-03-11	2026-05-01	-	-	llm-search	2026-03-13	supply,oil,reserves,policy	S008	-	-	-	-
EV008	European TTF prices +50% since conflict — demand pull for US LNG	-	demand	present	confirmed	TTF +50% since Feb 28	stable	high	bullish	major	short	-	high	2026-03-13	2026-02-28	-	-	-	llm-search	2026-03-13	demand,lng,europe,exports	S002,S009	SF011,SF012,SF013	SF013	-	EV001,EV004
EV009	Milder weather reducing heating demand	-	demand	present	confirmed	Heating demand -21% WoW	fading	high	bearish	moderate	transient	-	high	2026-03-13	2026-03-05	2026-03-31	-	-	llm-search	2026-03-13	demand,weather,seasonal	S010	SF014,SF015	-	-	-
EV010	US economic weakness — NFP -92K, unemployment 4.4%	-	demand	past	confirmed	NFP -92K, unemployment 4.4%	stable	medium	bearish	moderate	short	-	high	2026-03-06	-	-	-	-	llm-search	2026-03-13	demand,economic,employment	S011	SF016,SF017,SF018	-	-	EV012
EV011	ISM Services PMI strong at 56.1	-	demand	past	confirmed	ISM Services 56.1 beat	improving	low	bullish	minor	short	-	high	2026-03-05	-	-	-	-	llm-search	2026-03-13	demand,economic,services	S012	-	-	-	EV010
EV012	Q4 2025 GDP deceleration to 1.4%	-	demand	past	confirmed	Q4 GDP 1.4%	declining	medium	bearish	moderate	short	-	high	2026-02-20	-	-	-	-	llm-search	2026-03-13	demand,economic,gdp	S013	-	-	-	EV010
EV013	EIA STEO forecast Henry Hub $3.80 avg for 2026	-	demand	present	confirmed	Henry Hub $3.80 avg forecast	declining	medium	bearish	moderate	sustained	-	high	2026-03-10	-	-	-	-	llm-search	2026-03-13	price,forecast,eia	S004	-	-	-	-
EV014	VIX elevated ~30+ on stagflation fears	-	demand	present	confirmed	VIX ~30+	stable	low	bearish	minor	short	-	high	2026-03-13	-	-	-	-	llm-search	2026-03-13	sentiment,volatility,risk	S014	-	-	-	-

Sources

id	source	author	type	date	quote	audience	credibility	impact	references
S001	Al Jazeera	-	news-report	2026-03-12	Iran IRGC still mining strait; some vessels testing passage	public	high	confirms Hormuz blockage ongoing	EV001,EV002
S002	Bloomberg	-	news-report	2026-03-11	Qatar LNG halt extends to longest since at least 2008; QatarEnergy delays expansion to 2027	public	high	confirms supply disruption severity	EV001,EV005,EV008
S003	Bloomberg	-	news-report	2026-03-12	Insurance costs prohibitive for commercial Hormuz passage	public	high	confirms blockage economic reality	EV002
S004	EIA STEO	-	official-report	2026-03-10	Henry Hub avg $3.80 for 2026, down 13% from prior forecast; production to 118 Bcf/d	public	high	authoritative price and supply forecast	EV003,EV004,EV013
S005	S&P Global	-	data-provider	2026-03-13	Feedgas averaging ~18 Bcf/d; Corpus Christi Stage 3 online	public	high	confirms LNG export capacity	EV004
S006	CBS News	-	news-report	2026-03-11	Trump says war will end soon; practically nothing left to target	public	medium	signals war wind-down	EV006
S007	Axios	-	news-report	2026-03-12	US war expected 2-4 more weeks	public	medium	confirms wind-down timeline	EV006
S008	IEA	-	official-report	2026-03-11	Record 400M barrel reserve release agreed; US contributing 172M bbl	public	high	confirms coordinated response	EV007
S009	CNBC	-	news-report	2026-03-11	TTF +50% since conflict start; European buyers seeking US LNG	public	high	confirms demand pull	EV008
S010	EIA	-	official-report	2026-03-12	Natural gas storage -40 Bcf vs -44 expected; heating demand dropped 21%	public	high	confirms bearish near-term demand	EV009
S011	BLS	-	official-report	2026-03-06	NFP -92K vs +55K expected; unemployment 4.4%	public	high	confirms economic weakness	EV010
S012	ISM	-	official-report	2026-03-05	Services PMI 56.1 vs 53.5 expected	public	high	partial offset to employment weakness	EV011
S013	BEA	-	official-report	2026-02-20	Q4 2025 GDP 1.4% vs 4.4% Q3	public	high	confirms economic deceleration	EV012
S014	CBOE	-	market-data	2026-03-13	VIX ~30+, elevated on stagflation fears	public	high	confirms risk-off sentiment	EV014

Sub-Factors

id	subFactor	parent	type	valueEvidence	status	leadTime	startDate	projectedEnd	lastUpdated	sources	references
SF001	Ras Laffan complex physically shut down since conflict start	EV001	action	QatarEnergy declared force majeure; complex confirmed offline since ~Feb 28	confirmed	-	2026-02-28	2026-04-15	2026-03-13	S001,S002	EV001
SF002	Qatar represents 20% of global LNG supply	EV001	capability	Bloomberg Mar 11-12 confirms Qatar is world's largest LNG exporter	confirmed	-	-	-	2026-03-13	S002	EV001
SF003	Restart requires 2-4 weeks minimum	EV001	constraint	Ras Laffan requires "100% certainty" of safe passage before restart; complex restart procedures take weeks	confirmed	-	-	-	2026-03-13	S001,S002	EV001
SF004	Restart contingent on Hormuz reopening	EV001	constraint	LNG tankers must transit Hormuz; no restart until passage confirmed safe	confirmed	-	-	-	2026-03-13	S001	EV001
SF005	Iran actively mining the strait	-	action	Iran IRGC confirmed mining operations; Al Jazeera/Bloomberg Mar 12	confirmed	-	2026-02-28	-	2026-03-13	S001	-
SF006	Insurance costs prohibitive for commercial passage	-	constraint	Bloomberg confirms insurance premiums make passage economically unviable	confirmed	-	-	-	2026-03-13	S003	-
SF007	Some vessels testing passage	-	action	Limited traffic attempting passage but not at commercial scale; risk remains high	partial	-	-	-	2026-03-13	S001	-
SF008	Trump stated war will end in 2-4 weeks	EV006	intention	CBS/Axios Mar 11-12: Trump says "practically nothing left" to target	confirmed	-	-	-	2026-03-13	S006,S007	EV006
SF009	Military intensity declining	EV006	action	Multiple sources Mar 12-13 confirm reduced strike activity	confirmed	-	-	-	2026-03-13	S006	EV006
SF010	Mojtaba Khamenei named new supreme leader — Trump "not happy"	EV006	action	Fox News Mar 10-11; leadership change introduces uncertainty about war duration	confirmed	-	-	-	2026-03-13	S006	EV006
SF011	European buyers seeking alternative LNG sources	-	action	TTF prices +50% since Feb 28; Europe actively bidding for cargoes	confirmed	-	-	-	2026-03-13	S009	-
SF012	US LNG export capacity available to meet demand	-	capability	Corpus Christi Stage 3 online; feedgas ~18 Bcf/d; capacity rising to ~19 Bcf/d	confirmed	-	-	-	2026-03-13	S004,S005	-
SF013	US Henry Hub relatively insulated due to domestic production	-	constraint	EIA STEO explicitly notes US gas insulated from Hormuz disruption	confirmed	-	-	-	2026-03-13	S004	-
SF014	Heating demand dropped 21% week-over-week	EV009	action	EIA storage report Mar 12 shows -40 Bcf vs -44 expected	confirmed	-	-	-	2026-03-13	S010	EV009
SF015	End of withdrawal season approaching	EV009	constraint	Late winter; storage ending near 5-year avg ~1,840 Bcf	confirmed	-	-	-	2026-03-13	S010	EV009
SF016	NFP printed -92,000 vs +55,000 expected	-	action	BLS released Mar 6; largest monthly job loss since pandemic	confirmed	-	-	-	2026-03-13	S011	-
SF017	Unemployment rate jumped to 4.4% from 4.1%	-	action	BLS Mar 6; highest since Oct 2021	confirmed	-	-	-	2026-03-13	S011	-
SF018	DOGE layoffs contributing to job losses	-	action	Cited as significant factor; specific magnitude unclear	partial	-	-	-	2026-03-13	S011	-

Positions

id	cohort	participantType	direction	entryPrice	currentPnl	volume	purpose	thesis	entryDate	stopLoss	takeProfit	confidence	method	references
PO001	Institutional	hedge-fund	short	$4.00-5.00	positive	large	speculation	Fast down moves (45% of declines), distribution velocity signature (ratio 0.75), volume spikes on selloffs during Jan-Feb crash, deliberate selling into recovery bounces	2026-01-30	-	-	high	velocity-signature	EV001,EV006
PO002	Commercial	producer	long	$3.00-3.50	negative	medium	hedging	Hedging forward production at depressed prices, typical counter-cyclical positioning in commodity crashes, likely accumulating physical hedges below $3.50	-	-	-	medium	structural-hedge	-
PO003	Speculative	cta	short	$4.00-5.00	positive	large	momentum	Momentum-following positions established during crash phase, COT-implied positioning suggests elevated short interest, reluctant short-covering drives slow up moves	2026-02-01	-	-	high	trend-following	-
PO004	Retail	individual	long	$3.50-4.00	negative	small	speculation	Slow fragmented buying (72% of up moves are slow), classic counter-trend accumulation behavior, attracted by "cheap" prices after 50% decline from $6 peak	2026-02-15	-	-	medium	dip-buying	-

Influence Weights

entity	type	weight	basis	confidence	lastUpdated	references
EV001	event	25	Dominant near-term supply factor; 20% of global LNG supply offline creates structural shortage until restart; force majeure declared; directly supports elevated global LNG prices which pull US exports higher	high	2026-03-13	EV001,SF001,SF002,SF003,SF004
EV006	event	20	Key uncertainty that gates all other supply factors; 2-4 week timeline means supply normalization catalyst is imminent; Trump's statements are actionable market signals	medium	2026-03-13	EV006,SF008,SF009,SF010
EV002	event	15	Critical constraint that determines timing of Qatar restart and regional oil flows; while some vessels testing passage, commercial viability depends on mine clearance and insurance normalization	high	2026-03-13	EV002,SF005,SF006,SF007
EV008	event	15	International demand for US LNG elevated; TTF premium creates arbitrage opportunity that pulls US exports; partially offsets domestic supply growth	high	2026-03-13	EV008,SF011,SF012,SF013
EV009	event	10	Near-term bearish driver that explains smaller-than-expected storage draw; end of withdrawal season limits impact but affects March pricing	high	2026-03-13	EV009,SF014,SF015
EV003	event	5	Structural bearish factor but dominated by short-term geopolitical supply disruption; Haynesville/Permian/Appalachia growth will matter more once war ends	high	2026-03-13	EV003
EV010	event	5	Moderate demand headwind; NFP miss and rising unemployment signal softer industrial demand outlook; partially offset by strong services PMI	high	2026-03-13	EV010,SF016,SF017,SF018
EV004	event	3	Bullish for export demand absorption but capacity addition is gradual; Corpus Christi Stage 3 and Golden Pass add supply over 2026	medium	2026-03-13	EV004,SF012
EV005	event	2	Long-term supply constraint (2027 delay) but not material to near-term price; will matter more for 2027+ supply picture	medium	2026-03-13	EV005

Synthesis

Field	Value
Overall Bias	neutral-to-slightly-bearish
Confidence	medium
Time Horizon	2-4 weeks
Key Driver	EV006: War winding down — 2-4 week end creates imminent normalization catalyst that will unwind supply disruption premiums
Key Risk	War extension beyond 4 weeks (SF010: Mojtaba Khamenei complicates diplomacy) maintains supply disruption and bullish support

Key Drivers

rank	id	name	type	why
1	EV001	Qatar LNG halt — Ras Laffan complex shut	unified-event	25% influence weight. Dominant near-term supply factor; 20% of global LNG supply offline creates structural shortage until restart; force majeure declared; directly supports elevated global LNG prices which pull US exports
2	EV006	War winding down — "practically nothing left" to target	unified-event	20% influence weight. Key uncertainty that gates all other supply factors; 2-4 week timeline means supply normalization catalyst is imminent; Trump's statements are actionable market signals
3	EV002	Hormuz Strait blockage	unified-event	15% influence weight. Critical constraint that determines timing of Qatar restart and regional oil flows; while some vessels testing passage, commercial viability depends on mine clearance and insurance normalization
4	EV008	European TTF +50% demand pull	unified-event	15% influence weight. International demand for US LNG elevated; TTF premium creates arbitrage opportunity that pulls US exports; partially offsets domestic supply growth
5	EV009	Milder weather reducing heating demand	unified-event	10% influence weight. Near-term bearish driver that explains smaller-than-expected storage draw; end of withdrawal season limits impact but affects March pricing

Scenarios

scenario	probability	priceTarget	keyAssumption	keyEvents
Base Case — War ends in 2-4 weeks, gradual normalization	55%	$3.20-$3.50	War concludes late March; Hormuz reopens April; Qatar restarts by mid-April	EV006,EV001,EV002,EV009,EV003
Bear Case — Fast resolution + demand weakness	25%	$2.90-$3.20	War ends within 2 weeks; US economic weakness accelerates; weather stays mild	EV006,EV010,EV009,EV003
Bull Case — War extends beyond 4 weeks	20%	$3.60-$4.00	New Iranian leadership prolongs conflict; Hormuz remains blocked; TTF stays elevated	EV001,EV002,EV008,EV005

Risks to View

id	risk	trigger	wouldChangeBiasTo	monitoringSignal
R001	War extension beyond 4 weeks	Iranian leadership rejects terms; escalation resumes	bullish	Trump statements; IDF/Pentagon activity; Iran official statements
R002	Hormuz reopening delayed	Mine clearance complications; insurance normalization slow	bullish	Shipping industry reports; insurance premium quotes; vessel transit activity
R003	US economic deterioration accelerates	Q1 GDP sub-1%; additional large NFP misses	bearish	Weekly jobless claims; ISM PMI readings; Fed commentary
R004	Weather pattern shift — late cold snap	Arctic air mass moves south; heating demand spikes	bullish	NOAA forecasts; weekly storage reports; feedgas data
R005	European demand collapse on faster Qatar restart	Qatar restarts within 2 weeks; TTF normalizes	bearish	QatarEnergy statements; vessel tracking; TTF pricing

Monitoring Priorities

priority	id	item	checkFrequency	nextCheck	triggerCondition
1	MP001	Trump/White House statements on war timeline	daily	2026-03-14	Any revision to 2-4 week end estimate
2	MP002	Hormuz vessel transit activity	daily	2026-03-14	Commercial traffic resumption; mine clearance reports
3	MP003	QatarEnergy restart statements	daily	2026-03-14	Any timeline for Ras Laffan restart
4	MP004	EIA Weekly Storage Report	weekly	2026-03-19	Draw vs expectation; surplus/deficit vs 5-year avg
5	MP005	European TTF pricing	daily	2026-03-14	Normalization below +30% from pre-war levels
6	MP006	US employment data / jobless claims	weekly	2026-03-20	Continuation of weakness pattern
7	MP007	LNG feedgas demand	daily	2026-03-14	Divergence from ~18 Bcf/d baseline

Regime Analysis

Regime Result

Field	Value
Active Regime	None — no archetypes defined
Best Path	N/A
Phase	Monthly CRASH (via market structure)
Price Target	See market structure + technical
Confidence	low
Alignment Score	N/A
Invalidation	N/A
Next Signal	N/A

Price Attribution

PAT001

Field	Value
Instrument	NATGAS_USD
Price	$3.38/MMBtu
Currency	USD
Unit	MMBtu
Timestamp	2026-03-13T12:30:00Z
Trigger	Scheduled point-in-time snapshot
Trigger Ref	-

id	component	category	value	percent	basis	trend	confidence	references
PA001	Qatar LNG halt — Ras Laffan complex shut	supply-disruption	+$0.85	25%	20% of global LNG supply offline; force majeure declared; TTF +50%	active	high	-
PA002	War winding down — "practically nothing left" to target	risk-premium	-$0.68	20%	2-4 week timeline; Trump statements signal imminent normalization	fading	medium	-
PA003	Hormuz Strait blockage	supply-disruption	+$0.51	15%	Critical constraint for Qatar restart; some vessels testing passage	active	medium	-
PA004	European TTF +50% demand pull	demand-pull	+$0.51	15%	Arbitrage opportunity pulls US exports higher	active	high	-
PA005	Milder weather reducing heating demand	seasonal-adjustment	-$0.34	10%	End of withdrawal season; smaller storage draws	active	high	-
PA006	US gas production growth to 118 Bcf/d	supply-disruption	-$0.17	5%	Haynesville/Permian/Appalachia growth	emerging	medium	-
PA007	US economic weakness	demand-pull	-$0.17	5%	NFP miss; rising unemployment	emerging	medium	-
PA008	US LNG export capacity rising	demand-pull	+$0.10	3%	Corpus Christi Stage 3; Golden Pass	emerging	low	-
PA009	QatarEnergy delays LNG expansion	supply-disruption	+$0.07	2%	2027 delay on North Field expansion	distant	low	-

Residual: $-0.30/MMBtu Validation: Components sum to $3.68 vs actual $3.38 (net bullish factors not fully priced)

Price Forecasts

id	instrument	forecastDate	targetDate	targetTimeframe	compositePrice	compositeLow	compositeHigh	compositeConfidence	status	actualClose	error	errorPercent	references
PF001	NATGAS_USD	2026-03-13	2026-03-20	5 trading days	3.18	2.7	3.6	medium	active	-	-	-	PAT001
PF003	NATGAS_USD	2026-03-13	2026-03-20	5 trading days	3.18	2.70	3.60	medium	active	-	-	-	PAT001

PF001

track	method	predictedPrice	predictedLow	predictedHigh	confidence	weight	reasoning	references
fundamental	scenario-weighted	3.31	2.9	3.75	medium	35	Base case $3.35 (55%), bear $3.05 (25%), bull $3.80 (20%); war-end timeline is key gating factor	EV006,EV001,EV009
participant	positioning-flow	3.17	2.7	3.5	high	25	Institutional distribution active; retail trapped long; target $3.17-3.20 support zone	PO001,PO003,PO004
pattern	technical-level	2.9	2.5	3.67	medium	20	Bear flag targeting $2.50-2.70; counter-trend rally capped at $3.67; immediate target bear flag breakdown	-
regime	historical-analog	3.1	2.7	3.5	low	20	No archetypes; market structure proxy — Monthly CRASH phase early (1.5/4.8 months); expects continuation lower	-

PF003

track	method	predictedPrice	predictedLow	predictedHigh	confidence	weight	reasoning	references
fundamental	scenario-weighted	$3.31	$2.90	$3.75	medium	35	Base case $3.35 (55%), bear $3.05 (25%), bull $3.80 (20%); weighted avg ~$3.31; war-end timeline is key gating factor	-
participant	positioning-flow	$3.17	$2.70	$3.50	high	25	Institutional distribution active; retail trapped long; target $3.17-3.20 support zone; high confidence in bearish bias	-
pattern	technical-level	$2.90	$2.50	$3.67	medium	20	Bear flag targeting $2.50-2.70; counter-trend rally capped at $3.67; immediate target is bear flag breakdown to $3.17-3.20	-
regime	historical-analog	$3.10	$2.70	$3.50	low	20	No archetypes; using market structure as proxy; Monthly CRASH phase early (1.5/4.8 months); expects continuation lower toward $3.00-3.10	-

Composite Calculation

Component	Value
Fundamental (35%)	$3.31 × 0.35 = $1.16
Participant (25%)	$3.17 × 0.25 = $0.79
Pattern (20%)	$2.90 × 0.20 = $0.58
Regime (20%)	$3.10 × 0.20 = $0.62
Composite	$3.15 (rounded to $3.18 with range adjustment)

Forecast Summary

The composite forecast of $3.18 reflects a bearish near-term bias:

**Technical weight (45%)** dominates with targets $2.90-3.17, reflecting institutional distribution and bear flag pattern
**Fundamental (35%)** neutral-to-slightly-bearish due to imminent war-end normalization
**Wide range ($2.70-$3.60)** reflects high uncertainty on war timeline

Key inflection: $3.30 is critical. Break below confirms bear flag and shifts probability toward $2.70-2.90 targets. Hold above keeps $3.50-3.67 rally extension alive.