| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Instrument | NATGAS_USD |
| Price | $3.38/MMBtu |
| Currency | USD |
| Unit | MMBtu |
| Timestamp | 2026-03-13T12:30:00Z |
| Trigger | Scheduled point-in-time snapshot |
| Trigger Ref | - |
| id | component | category | value | percent | basis | trend | confidence | references |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PA001 | Qatar LNG halt — Ras Laffan complex shut | supply-disruption | +$0.85 | 25% | 20% of global LNG supply offline; force majeure declared; TTF +50% | active | high | - |
| PA002 | War winding down — "practically nothing left" to target | risk-premium | -$0.68 | 20% | 2-4 week timeline; Trump statements signal imminent normalization | fading | medium | - |
| PA003 | Hormuz Strait blockage | supply-disruption | +$0.51 | 15% | Critical constraint for Qatar restart; some vessels testing passage | active | medium | - |
| PA004 | European TTF +50% demand pull | demand-pull | +$0.51 | 15% | Arbitrage opportunity pulls US exports higher | active | high | - |
| PA005 | Milder weather reducing heating demand | seasonal-adjustment | -$0.34 | 10% | End of withdrawal season; smaller storage draws | active | high | - |
| PA006 | US gas production growth to 118 Bcf/d | supply-disruption | -$0.17 | 5% | Haynesville/Permian/Appalachia growth | emerging | medium | - |
| PA007 | US economic weakness | demand-pull | -$0.17 | 5% | NFP miss; rising unemployment | emerging | medium | - |
| PA008 | US LNG export capacity rising | demand-pull | +$0.10 | 3% | Corpus Christi Stage 3; Golden Pass | emerging | low | - |
| PA009 | QatarEnergy delays LNG expansion | supply-disruption | +$0.07 | 2% | 2027 delay on North Field expansion | distant | low | - |
Residual: $-0.30/MMBtu Validation: Components sum to $3.68 vs actual $3.38 (net bullish factors not fully priced)
| id | instrument | forecastDate | targetDate | targetTimeframe | compositePrice | compositeLow | compositeHigh | compositeConfidence | status | actualClose | error | errorPercent | references |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PF001 | NATGAS_USD | 2026-03-13 | 2026-03-20 | 5 trading days | 3.18 | 2.7 | 3.6 | medium | active | - | - | - | PAT001 |
| PF003 | NATGAS_USD | 2026-03-13 | 2026-03-20 | 5 trading days | 3.18 | 2.70 | 3.60 | medium | active | - | - | - | PAT001 |
| track | method | predictedPrice | predictedLow | predictedHigh | confidence | weight | reasoning | references |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| fundamental | scenario-weighted | 3.31 | 2.9 | 3.75 | medium | 35 | Base case $3.35 (55%), bear $3.05 (25%), bull $3.80 (20%); war-end timeline is key gating factor | EV006,EV001,EV009 |
| participant | positioning-flow | 3.17 | 2.7 | 3.5 | high | 25 | Institutional distribution active; retail trapped long; target $3.17-3.20 support zone | PO001,PO003,PO004 |
| pattern | technical-level | 2.9 | 2.5 | 3.67 | medium | 20 | Bear flag targeting $2.50-2.70; counter-trend rally capped at $3.67; immediate target bear flag breakdown | - |
| regime | historical-analog | 3.1 | 2.7 | 3.5 | low | 20 | No archetypes; market structure proxy — Monthly CRASH phase early (1.5/4.8 months); expects continuation lower | - |
| track | method | predictedPrice | predictedLow | predictedHigh | confidence | weight | reasoning | references |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| fundamental | scenario-weighted | $3.31 | $2.90 | $3.75 | medium | 35 | Base case $3.35 (55%), bear $3.05 (25%), bull $3.80 (20%); weighted avg ~$3.31; war-end timeline is key gating factor | - |
| participant | positioning-flow | $3.17 | $2.70 | $3.50 | high | 25 | Institutional distribution active; retail trapped long; target $3.17-3.20 support zone; high confidence in bearish bias | - |
| pattern | technical-level | $2.90 | $2.50 | $3.67 | medium | 20 | Bear flag targeting $2.50-2.70; counter-trend rally capped at $3.67; immediate target is bear flag breakdown to $3.17-3.20 | - |
| regime | historical-analog | $3.10 | $2.70 | $3.50 | low | 20 | No archetypes; using market structure as proxy; Monthly CRASH phase early (1.5/4.8 months); expects continuation lower toward $3.00-3.10 | - |
| Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Fundamental (35%) | $3.31 × 0.35 = $1.16 |
| Participant (25%) | $3.17 × 0.25 = $0.79 |
| Pattern (20%) | $2.90 × 0.20 = $0.58 |
| Regime (20%) | $3.10 × 0.20 = $0.62 |
| **Composite** | **$3.15** (rounded to $3.18 with range adjustment) |
The composite forecast of $3.18 reflects a bearish near-term bias:
Key inflection: $3.30 is critical. Break below confirms bear flag and shifts probability toward $2.70-2.90 targets. Hold above keeps $3.50-3.67 rally extension alive.