| entity | type | weight | basis | confidence | lastUpdated | references |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV001 | event | 25 | Dominant near-term supply factor; 20% of global LNG supply offline creates structural shortage until restart; force majeure declared; directly supports elevated global LNG prices which pull US exports higher | high | 2026-03-13 | EV001,SF001,SF002,SF003,SF004 |
| EV006 | event | 20 | Key uncertainty that gates all other supply factors; 2-4 week timeline means supply normalization catalyst is imminent; Trump's statements are actionable market signals | medium | 2026-03-13 | EV006,SF008,SF009,SF010 |
| EV002 | event | 15 | Critical constraint that determines timing of Qatar restart and regional oil flows; while some vessels testing passage, commercial viability depends on mine clearance and insurance normalization | high | 2026-03-13 | EV002,SF005,SF006,SF007 |
| EV008 | event | 15 | International demand for US LNG elevated; TTF premium creates arbitrage opportunity that pulls US exports; partially offsets domestic supply growth | high | 2026-03-13 | EV008,SF011,SF012,SF013 |
| EV009 | event | 10 | Near-term bearish driver that explains smaller-than-expected storage draw; end of withdrawal season limits impact but affects March pricing | high | 2026-03-13 | EV009,SF014,SF015 |
| EV003 | event | 5 | Structural bearish factor but dominated by short-term geopolitical supply disruption; Haynesville/Permian/Appalachia growth will matter more once war ends | high | 2026-03-13 | EV003 |
| EV010 | event | 5 | Moderate demand headwind; NFP miss and rising unemployment signal softer industrial demand outlook; partially offset by strong services PMI | high | 2026-03-13 | EV010,SF016,SF017,SF018 |
| EV004 | event | 3 | Bullish for export demand absorption but capacity addition is gradual; Corpus Christi Stage 3 and Golden Pass add supply over 2026 | medium | 2026-03-13 | EV004,SF012 |
| EV005 | event | 2 | Long-term supply constraint (2027 delay) but not material to near-term price; will matter more for 2027+ supply picture | medium | 2026-03-13 | EV005 |
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Overall Bias | neutral-to-slightly-bearish |
| Confidence | medium |
| Time Horizon | 2-4 weeks |
| Key Driver | EV006: War winding down — 2-4 week end creates imminent normalization catalyst that will unwind supply disruption premiums |
| Key Risk | War extension beyond 4 weeks (SF010: Mojtaba Khamenei complicates diplomacy) maintains supply disruption and bullish support |
| rank | id | name | type | why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | EV001 | Qatar LNG halt — Ras Laffan complex shut | unified-event | 25% influence weight. Dominant near-term supply factor; 20% of global LNG supply offline creates structural shortage until restart; force majeure declared; directly supports elevated global LNG prices which pull US exports |
| 2 | EV006 | War winding down — "practically nothing left" to target | unified-event | 20% influence weight. Key uncertainty that gates all other supply factors; 2-4 week timeline means supply normalization catalyst is imminent; Trump's statements are actionable market signals |
| 3 | EV002 | Hormuz Strait blockage | unified-event | 15% influence weight. Critical constraint that determines timing of Qatar restart and regional oil flows; while some vessels testing passage, commercial viability depends on mine clearance and insurance normalization |
| 4 | EV008 | European TTF +50% demand pull | unified-event | 15% influence weight. International demand for US LNG elevated; TTF premium creates arbitrage opportunity that pulls US exports; partially offsets domestic supply growth |
| 5 | EV009 | Milder weather reducing heating demand | unified-event | 10% influence weight. Near-term bearish driver that explains smaller-than-expected storage draw; end of withdrawal season limits impact but affects March pricing |
| scenario | probability | priceTarget | keyAssumption | keyEvents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base Case — War ends in 2-4 weeks, gradual normalization | 55% | $3.20-$3.50 | War concludes late March; Hormuz reopens April; Qatar restarts by mid-April | EV006,EV001,EV002,EV009,EV003 |
| Bear Case — Fast resolution + demand weakness | 25% | $2.90-$3.20 | War ends within 2 weeks; US economic weakness accelerates; weather stays mild | EV006,EV010,EV009,EV003 |
| Bull Case — War extends beyond 4 weeks | 20% | $3.60-$4.00 | New Iranian leadership prolongs conflict; Hormuz remains blocked; TTF stays elevated | EV001,EV002,EV008,EV005 |
| id | risk | trigger | wouldChangeBiasTo | monitoringSignal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R001 | War extension beyond 4 weeks | Iranian leadership rejects terms; escalation resumes | bullish | Trump statements; IDF/Pentagon activity; Iran official statements |
| R002 | Hormuz reopening delayed | Mine clearance complications; insurance normalization slow | bullish | Shipping industry reports; insurance premium quotes; vessel transit activity |
| R003 | US economic deterioration accelerates | Q1 GDP sub-1%; additional large NFP misses | bearish | Weekly jobless claims; ISM PMI readings; Fed commentary |
| R004 | Weather pattern shift — late cold snap | Arctic air mass moves south; heating demand spikes | bullish | NOAA forecasts; weekly storage reports; feedgas data |
| R005 | European demand collapse on faster Qatar restart | Qatar restarts within 2 weeks; TTF normalizes | bearish | QatarEnergy statements; vessel tracking; TTF pricing |
| priority | id | item | checkFrequency | nextCheck | triggerCondition |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MP001 | Trump/White House statements on war timeline | daily | 2026-03-14 | Any revision to 2-4 week end estimate |
| 2 | MP002 | Hormuz vessel transit activity | daily | 2026-03-14 | Commercial traffic resumption; mine clearance reports |
| 3 | MP003 | QatarEnergy restart statements | daily | 2026-03-14 | Any timeline for Ras Laffan restart |
| 4 | MP004 | EIA Weekly Storage Report | weekly | 2026-03-19 | Draw vs expectation; surplus/deficit vs 5-year avg |
| 5 | MP005 | European TTF pricing | daily | 2026-03-14 | Normalization below +30% from pre-war levels |
| 6 | MP006 | US employment data / jobless claims | weekly | 2026-03-20 | Continuation of weakness pattern |
| 7 | MP007 | LNG feedgas demand | daily | 2026-03-14 | Divergence from ~18 Bcf/d baseline |