Natural Gas — Technical Analysis

Analysis date: 2026-03-13

Technical Analysis Result

Technical Analysis Result — NATGAS_USD — 2026-03-13

Temporal Validity

Field	Value
Created	2026-03-13T12:00:00Z
Last Validated	2026-03-13T12:00:00Z
Valid From	2026-03-13
Valid To	2026-03-20
Trading Days	5
Calendar Days	7
Data Window	2026-01-21 to 2026-03-12

Structural View

Field	Value
Dominant Participant	Institutional (distribution mode)
Price Regime	Trending down with corrective bounce
Velocity Regime	Slow-trending up (corrective), fast-trending down (impulsive)
Bias	Bearish
Confidence	High

Price Targets

target_type	price	basis	timeframe
upside_resistance	$3.43	Local high / neckline resistance	1-3 days
upside_max	$3.50-3.67	38.2% Fib retracement / prior swing high	5-7 days
downside_initial	$3.17-3.20	H4 support zone / double bottom test	3-5 days
downside_breakdown	$3.07-3.10	Recovery origin / major support	5-10 days
downside_extended	$2.50-2.70	Bear flag measured move / historical support	2-4 weeks

Convergence Estimate

Field	Value
Current Price	$3.38
Target	$3.17-3.20 (initial), $2.50-2.70 (extended)
Estimated Time	3-5 days to initial, 2-4 weeks to extended
Velocity Regime	Asymmetric - fast down expected, slow up observed
Participant Phase	Institutional distribution into recovery bounce

Synthesis

Structural Summary

Natural gas presents a clear technical picture of a bear market rally within a dominant downtrend. The evidence is unambiguous:

1. Velocity Asymmetry (0.75 ratio): Down moves are 33% faster than up moves, signature of institutional distribution.

2. Participant Alignment:

Institutional: Net-short, actively distributing
Speculative: Net-short, momentum-following
Retail: Net-long, buying the dip (trapped)
Commercial: Neutral (hedging)

3. Pattern Hierarchy:

Primary: Daily bear flag (confirmed, targeting $2.50-2.70)
Secondary: Lower high sequence (confirmed)
Tertiary: H4 double bottom (forming, low reliability)

4. Market Structure Context:

Monthly: CRASH phase (1.5 months duration)
Daily: RECOVERY (counter-trend)
H4: RECOVERY diverging from Weekly selloff (Level 4 escalation)

Technical Bias: Bearish

The weight of evidence supports continuation lower. The daily RECOVERY phase is technically corrective, not impulsive:

Slow velocity on advances (72% slow moves)
Fast velocity on declines (45% fast moves)
Declining volume during recovery
Institutional distribution ongoing

Critical Level: $3.30 is the inflection point. Price is currently testing this level. A daily close below $3.30 invalidates the recovery and confirms bear flag breakdown.

Trading Implications

Bearish Scenario (70% probability):

Recovery exhausts at $3.43-3.50 (or has already at $3.43)
Break below $3.30 triggers acceleration lower
Initial target: $3.17-3.20
Extended target: $2.50-2.70 on bear flag completion

Bullish Scenario (30% probability):

Break above $3.67 with volume negates bear flag
Would require institutional repositioning (no evidence yet)
Target: $3.80-4.00 on short-squeeze

Risk Management

**Stop-loss for shorts:** Above $3.67 (invalidation)
**Entry zones for shorts:** $3.40-3.50 (recovery exhaustion)
**Stop-loss for longs:** Below $3.07 (recovery failure)
**Entry zones for longs:** Only on confirmed break above $3.67

Change Log

date	version	changes
2026-03-13	1.0	Initial technical analysis

Positions

id	cohort	participantType	direction	entryPrice	currentPnl	volume	purpose	thesis	entryDate	stopLoss	takeProfit	confidence	method	references
PO001	Institutional	hedge-fund	short	$4.00-5.00	positive	large	speculation	Fast down moves (45% of declines), distribution velocity signature (ratio 0.75), volume spikes on selloffs during Jan-Feb crash, deliberate selling into recovery bounces	2026-01-30	-	-	high	velocity-signature	EV001,EV006
PO002	Commercial	producer	long	$3.00-3.50	negative	medium	hedging	Hedging forward production at depressed prices, typical counter-cyclical positioning in commodity crashes, likely accumulating physical hedges below $3.50	-	-	-	medium	structural-hedge	-
PO003	Speculative	cta	short	$4.00-5.00	positive	large	momentum	Momentum-following positions established during crash phase, COT-implied positioning suggests elevated short interest, reluctant short-covering drives slow up moves	2026-02-01	-	-	high	trend-following	-
PO004	Retail	individual	long	$3.50-4.00	negative	small	speculation	Slow fragmented buying (72% of up moves are slow), classic counter-trend accumulation behavior, attracted by "cheap" prices after 50% decline from $6 peak	2026-02-15	-	-	medium	dip-buying	-