| id | name | parent | category | temporalState | realizationStatus | value | trend | significance | direction | magnitude | duration | probability | confidence | date | startDate | projectedEnd | leadTime | leadTimeBasis | sourceType | lastUpdated | topics | sources | evidenceFor | evidenceAgainst | leadTimeEvidence | references |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV001 | COMEX registered inventory at record low 88.78M oz | - | supply | present | confirmed | 88.78M oz | declining | high | bullish | major | sustained | - | high | 2026-03-09 | 2020-04-01 | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | inventory,supply,comex,physical | S001 | SF001,SF002,SF003,SF004 | - | - | EV006 |
| EV002 | Byproduct supply constraint (~75% of silver from copper/zinc) | - | supply | present | confirmed | 75% | stable | high | bullish | major | structural | - | high | 2026-03-13 | - | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | supply,mining,byproduct | S002 | SF013,SF014,SF015 | - | - | EV003 |
| EV003 | Grasberg copper mine force majeure | - | supply | - | - | - | - | medium | bullish | moderate | short | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| EV004 | Chile copper mine disruptions (Las Bambas, Capstone, El Teniente) | - | supply | - | - | - | - | low | bullish | minor | transient | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| EV005 | China smelter output cuts ~10% planned | - | supply | - | - | - | - | medium | bullish | moderate | sustained | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| EV006 | 67M oz structural market deficit (6th consecutive year) | - | supply | present | confirmed | 67M oz deficit | stable | high | bullish | major | structural | - | high | 2026-03-13 | 2021-01-01 | 2026-12-31 | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | supply,demand,deficit,structural | S003 | SF011,SF012 | - | - | EV001,EV009 |
| EV007 | Primary silver mine supply flat | - | supply | - | - | - | - | low | neutral | minor | structural | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| EV008 | Chile 13 copper projects advancing | - | supply | - | - | - | - | low | bearish | minor | sustained | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| EV009 | Solar/PV demand ~160M oz forecast for 2026 | - | demand | present | confirmed | 160M oz | accelerating | high | bullish | major | structural | - | high | 2026-03-13 | 2020-01-01 | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | demand,solar,industrial,structural | S004 | SF005,SF006,SF007 | SF008,SF009 | - | EV017 |
| EV010 | US solar capacity +70 GW forecast 2026-2027 | - | demand | - | - | - | - | medium | bullish | moderate | sustained | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| EV011 | EV/5G structural demand growth | - | demand | - | - | - | - | medium | bullish | moderate | structural | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| EV012 | Total industrial demand ~690M oz (55% of total) | - | demand | - | - | - | - | high | bullish | major | structural | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| EV013 | Gold/silver ratio at 59.6:1 (below 65-75 avg) | - | demand | - | - | - | - | medium | neutral | minor | short | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| EV014 | Gold trading at ~$5,110 (supporting precious complex) | - | demand | present | confirmed | $5,110 | stable | high | bullish | moderate | sustained | - | high | 2026-03-13 | - | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | gold,precious-metals,correlation | S005 | - | - | - | EV013 |
| EV015 | China copper imports -16.1% YoY (Jan-Feb) | - | demand | - | - | - | - | medium | bearish | moderate | short | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| EV016 | China Manufacturing PMI 49.0 (contraction) | - | demand | present | confirmed | 49.0 | declining | medium | bearish | moderate | short | - | medium | 2026-03-04 | 2026-02-01 | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | demand,china,industrial,pmi | S006 | SF016 | SF017 | - | EV015 |
| EV017 | China solar substitution to copper (Longi, Jinko, Aiko) | - | demand | future | announced | Q2 2026 | accelerating | medium | bearish | moderate | sustained | 70% | medium | 2026-03-13 | 2026-04-01 | 2026-12-31 | 1-3 months | Company announcements | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | demand,solar,substitution,copper | S007 | SF008,SF009 | SF010 | Longi, Jinko, Aiko announcements | EV009 |
| EV018 | US Non-Farm Payrolls -92,000 (Feb) | - | demand | - | - | - | - | low | bearish | minor | short | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| EV019 | Safe-haven rotation from gold visible | - | demand | - | - | - | - | low | bullish | minor | transient | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| EV020 | VIX elevated ~30+ (stagflation fear) | - | demand | - | - | - | - | low | bearish | minor | transient | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| id | source | author | type | date | quote | audience | credibility | impact | references |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S001 | CME Group | - | exchange-report | 2026-03-09 | COMEX registered silver: 88.78M oz | public | high | Direct inventory data | EV001 |
| S002 | Silver Institute | - | industry-report | 2026-01-15 | Approximately 75% of silver supply is from byproduct production | public | high | Structural supply constraint | EV002 |
| S003 | Silver Institute | - | industry-report | 2026-02-20 | 2026 market deficit forecast at 67M oz | public | high | Structural deficit continues | EV006 |
| S004 | BloombergNEF | - | research-report | 2026-03-01 | Solar sector silver demand ~160M oz for 2026 | public | high | Structural demand driver | EV009 |
| S005 | Oanda | - | market-data | 2026-03-13 | XAU_USD: $5,110.50 | public | high | Gold price support | EV014 |
| S006 | NBS China | - | government-report | 2026-03-04 | Manufacturing PMI: 49.0 | public | high | Industrial demand weakness | EV016 |
| S007 | Reuters | - | news-report | 2026-02-28 | Longi, Jinko announce copper-based solar cell mass production Q2 2026 | public | medium | Potential silver substitution | EV017 |
| id | subFactor | parent | type | valueEvidence | status | leadTime | startDate | projectedEnd | lastUpdated | sources | references |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF001 | Registered inventory at 88.78M oz (lowest on record) | EV001 | action | CME data shows -25.6M oz draw in 30 days | confirmed | - | 2020-04-01 | - | 2026-03-13 | S001 | EV001 |
| SF002 | March delivery 52.6M oz standing for delivery | EV001 | action | 10,526 contracts standing per CME | confirmed | - | 2026-03-01 | 2026-03-31 | 2026-03-13 | S001 | EV001 |
| SF003 | Stress index 84/88 (standing/registered ratio) | EV001 | action | 52.6M oz vs 86-89M oz creates near-default conditions | confirmed | - | - | - | 2026-03-13 | - | EV001 |
| SF004 | 64% decline from 2020 peak of 240M oz | EV001 | action | Historical comparison verified | confirmed | - | - | - | 2026-03-13 | - | EV001 |
| SF005 | Global solar installations growing 20-30%/year | EV009 | deployment | IEA/BloombergNEF forecasts | confirmed | - | 2020-01-01 | - | 2026-03-13 | S004 | EV009 |
| SF006 | Each GW of solar requires ~20-30 tonnes silver | EV009 | capability | Industry standard silver loading per panel | confirmed | - | - | - | 2026-03-13 | - | EV009 |
| SF007 | US +70 GW solar capacity 2026-2027 | EV009 | deployment | EIA/BloombergNEF forecast | confirmed | - | - | - | 2026-03-13 | - | EV009 |
| SF008 | Longi, Jinko, Aiko transitioning to copper | - | intention | Announced plans for back-contact cells; mass production Q2 2026 | partial | 1-3 months | 2026-04-01 | 2026-12-31 | 2026-03-13 | S007 | - |
| SF009 | Mass production Q2 2026 | - | deployment | Future date; not yet verified | unvalidated | - | - | - | 2026-03-13 | - | - |
| SF010 | Only affects back-contact cell type | - | constraint | Traditional PERC cells still require silver | confirmed | - | - | - | 2026-03-13 | - | - |
| SF011 | 6th consecutive deficit year since 2021 | - | action | Silver Institute annual reports | confirmed | - | - | - | 2026-03-13 | - | - |
| SF012 | Industrial + solar demand outpacing mine supply | - | capability | Structural mismatch documented | confirmed | - | - | - | 2026-03-13 | - | - |
| SF013 | ~75% of silver comes from copper/zinc mining | - | constraint | Silver Institute data | confirmed | - | - | - | 2026-03-13 | - | - |
| SF014 | Silver supply responds to copper/zinc prices, not silver | - | constraint | Economic relationship documented | confirmed | - | - | - | 2026-03-13 | - | - |
| SF015 | Grasberg copper force majeure reduces byproduct | - | action | Block Cave closed until Q2 2026 | confirmed | - | - | - | 2026-03-13 | - | - |
| SF016 | Second consecutive contraction | - | action | NBS official data released Mar 4 | confirmed | - | - | - | 2026-03-13 | - | - |
| SF017 | RatingDog PMI 52.1 diverges positively | - | action | Alternative measure shows expansion | confirmed | - | - | - | 2026-03-13 | - | - |
| SF018 | Current ratio below 65-75 historical average | - | action | Calculated from $5,110 gold / $85.12 silver | confirmed | - | - | - | 2026-03-13 | - | - |
| SF019 | Silver "rich" vs gold at current levels | - | precedent | Historical mean-reversion pattern | confirmed | - | - | - | 2026-03-13 | - | - |