| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Asset | Silver |
| Class | Precious Metal / Industrial Metal (Hybrid) |
| Ticker | - |
| Related | SLV (iShares Silver Trust ETF), PSLV (Sprott Physical Silver Trust), GLD (Gold ETF — correlated), GDX (Gold Miners), SILJ (Junior Silver Miners), SIL (Global X Silver Miners ETF), XAU_USD (gold spot), DXY (US Dollar — inverse) |
| Analysis Date | 2026-03-13 |
| Data Freshness | 2026-03-13T11:00:00Z |
| track | created | lastValidated | validFrom | validTo | tradingDays | calendarDays |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fundamental | 2026-03-13T10:30:00Z | 2026-03-13T10:30:00Z | 2026-03-13 | 2026-04-15 | 24 | 33 |
| Technical | 2026-03-13T12:00:00Z | 2026-03-13T12:00:00Z | 2026-03-13 | 2026-03-27 | 10 | 14 |
| Regime | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Market Structure | 2026-03-13T09:50:00Z | 2026-03-13T09:50:00Z | 2026-03-13 | 2026-04-30 | 35 | 48 |
| id | name | parent | category | temporalState | realizationStatus | value | trend | significance | direction | magnitude | duration | probability | confidence | date | startDate | projectedEnd | leadTime | leadTimeBasis | sourceType | lastUpdated | topics | sources | evidenceFor | evidenceAgainst | leadTimeEvidence | references |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV001 | COMEX registered inventory at record low 88.78M oz | - | supply | present | confirmed | 88.78M oz | declining | high | bullish | major | sustained | - | high | 2026-03-09 | 2020-04-01 | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | inventory,supply,comex,physical | S001 | SF001,SF002,SF003,SF004 | - | - | EV006 |
| EV002 | Byproduct supply constraint (~75% of silver from copper/zinc) | - | supply | present | confirmed | 75% | stable | high | bullish | major | structural | - | high | 2026-03-13 | - | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | supply,mining,byproduct | S002 | SF013,SF014,SF015 | - | - | EV003 |
| EV003 | Grasberg copper mine force majeure | - | supply | - | - | - | - | medium | bullish | moderate | short | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| EV004 | Chile copper mine disruptions (Las Bambas, Capstone, El Teniente) | - | supply | - | - | - | - | low | bullish | minor | transient | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| EV005 | China smelter output cuts ~10% planned | - | supply | - | - | - | - | medium | bullish | moderate | sustained | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| EV006 | 67M oz structural market deficit (6th consecutive year) | - | supply | present | confirmed | 67M oz deficit | stable | high | bullish | major | structural | - | high | 2026-03-13 | 2021-01-01 | 2026-12-31 | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | supply,demand,deficit,structural | S003 | SF011,SF012 | - | - | EV001,EV009 |
| EV007 | Primary silver mine supply flat | - | supply | - | - | - | - | low | neutral | minor | structural | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| EV008 | Chile 13 copper projects advancing | - | supply | - | - | - | - | low | bearish | minor | sustained | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| EV009 | Solar/PV demand ~160M oz forecast for 2026 | - | demand | present | confirmed | 160M oz | accelerating | high | bullish | major | structural | - | high | 2026-03-13 | 2020-01-01 | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | demand,solar,industrial,structural | S004 | SF005,SF006,SF007 | SF008,SF009 | - | EV017 |
| EV010 | US solar capacity +70 GW forecast 2026-2027 | - | demand | - | - | - | - | medium | bullish | moderate | sustained | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| EV011 | EV/5G structural demand growth | - | demand | - | - | - | - | medium | bullish | moderate | structural | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| EV012 | Total industrial demand ~690M oz (55% of total) | - | demand | - | - | - | - | high | bullish | major | structural | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| EV013 | Gold/silver ratio at 59.6:1 (below 65-75 avg) | - | demand | - | - | - | - | medium | neutral | minor | short | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| EV014 | Gold trading at ~$5,110 (supporting precious complex) | - | demand | present | confirmed | $5,110 | stable | high | bullish | moderate | sustained | - | high | 2026-03-13 | - | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | gold,precious-metals,correlation | S005 | - | - | - | EV013 |
| EV015 | China copper imports -16.1% YoY (Jan-Feb) | - | demand | - | - | - | - | medium | bearish | moderate | short | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| EV016 | China Manufacturing PMI 49.0 (contraction) | - | demand | present | confirmed | 49.0 | declining | medium | bearish | moderate | short | - | medium | 2026-03-04 | 2026-02-01 | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | demand,china,industrial,pmi | S006 | SF016 | SF017 | - | EV015 |
| EV017 | China solar substitution to copper (Longi, Jinko, Aiko) | - | demand | future | announced | Q2 2026 | accelerating | medium | bearish | moderate | sustained | 70% | medium | 2026-03-13 | 2026-04-01 | 2026-12-31 | 1-3 months | Company announcements | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | demand,solar,substitution,copper | S007 | SF008,SF009 | SF010 | Longi, Jinko, Aiko announcements | EV009 |
| EV018 | US Non-Farm Payrolls -92,000 (Feb) | - | demand | - | - | - | - | low | bearish | minor | short | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| EV019 | Safe-haven rotation from gold visible | - | demand | - | - | - | - | low | bullish | minor | transient | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| EV020 | VIX elevated ~30+ (stagflation fear) | - | demand | - | - | - | - | low | bearish | minor | transient | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | llm-search | 2026-03-13 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| id | source | author | type | date | quote | audience | credibility | impact | references |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S001 | CME Group | - | exchange-report | 2026-03-09 | COMEX registered silver: 88.78M oz | public | high | Direct inventory data | EV001 |
| S002 | Silver Institute | - | industry-report | 2026-01-15 | Approximately 75% of silver supply is from byproduct production | public | high | Structural supply constraint | EV002 |
| S003 | Silver Institute | - | industry-report | 2026-02-20 | 2026 market deficit forecast at 67M oz | public | high | Structural deficit continues | EV006 |
| S004 | BloombergNEF | - | research-report | 2026-03-01 | Solar sector silver demand ~160M oz for 2026 | public | high | Structural demand driver | EV009 |
| S005 | Oanda | - | market-data | 2026-03-13 | XAU_USD: $5,110.50 | public | high | Gold price support | EV014 |
| S006 | NBS China | - | government-report | 2026-03-04 | Manufacturing PMI: 49.0 | public | high | Industrial demand weakness | EV016 |
| S007 | Reuters | - | news-report | 2026-02-28 | Longi, Jinko announce copper-based solar cell mass production Q2 2026 | public | medium | Potential silver substitution | EV017 |
| id | subFactor | parent | type | valueEvidence | status | leadTime | startDate | projectedEnd | lastUpdated | sources | references |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF001 | Registered inventory at 88.78M oz (lowest on record) | EV001 | action | CME data shows -25.6M oz draw in 30 days | confirmed | - | 2020-04-01 | - | 2026-03-13 | S001 | EV001 |
| SF002 | March delivery 52.6M oz standing for delivery | EV001 | action | 10,526 contracts standing per CME | confirmed | - | 2026-03-01 | 2026-03-31 | 2026-03-13 | S001 | EV001 |
| SF003 | Stress index 84/88 (standing/registered ratio) | EV001 | action | 52.6M oz vs 86-89M oz creates near-default conditions | confirmed | - | - | - | 2026-03-13 | - | EV001 |
| SF004 | 64% decline from 2020 peak of 240M oz | EV001 | action | Historical comparison verified | confirmed | - | - | - | 2026-03-13 | - | EV001 |
| SF005 | Global solar installations growing 20-30%/year | EV009 | deployment | IEA/BloombergNEF forecasts | confirmed | - | 2020-01-01 | - | 2026-03-13 | S004 | EV009 |
| SF006 | Each GW of solar requires ~20-30 tonnes silver | EV009 | capability | Industry standard silver loading per panel | confirmed | - | - | - | 2026-03-13 | - | EV009 |
| SF007 | US +70 GW solar capacity 2026-2027 | EV009 | deployment | EIA/BloombergNEF forecast | confirmed | - | - | - | 2026-03-13 | - | EV009 |
| SF008 | Longi, Jinko, Aiko transitioning to copper | - | intention | Announced plans for back-contact cells; mass production Q2 2026 | partial | 1-3 months | 2026-04-01 | 2026-12-31 | 2026-03-13 | S007 | - |
| SF009 | Mass production Q2 2026 | - | deployment | Future date; not yet verified | unvalidated | - | - | - | 2026-03-13 | - | - |
| SF010 | Only affects back-contact cell type | - | constraint | Traditional PERC cells still require silver | confirmed | - | - | - | 2026-03-13 | - | - |
| SF011 | 6th consecutive deficit year since 2021 | - | action | Silver Institute annual reports | confirmed | - | - | - | 2026-03-13 | - | - |
| SF012 | Industrial + solar demand outpacing mine supply | - | capability | Structural mismatch documented | confirmed | - | - | - | 2026-03-13 | - | - |
| SF013 | ~75% of silver comes from copper/zinc mining | - | constraint | Silver Institute data | confirmed | - | - | - | 2026-03-13 | - | - |
| SF014 | Silver supply responds to copper/zinc prices, not silver | - | constraint | Economic relationship documented | confirmed | - | - | - | 2026-03-13 | - | - |
| SF015 | Grasberg copper force majeure reduces byproduct | - | action | Block Cave closed until Q2 2026 | confirmed | - | - | - | 2026-03-13 | - | - |
| SF016 | Second consecutive contraction | - | action | NBS official data released Mar 4 | confirmed | - | - | - | 2026-03-13 | - | - |
| SF017 | RatingDog PMI 52.1 diverges positively | - | action | Alternative measure shows expansion | confirmed | - | - | - | 2026-03-13 | - | - |
| SF018 | Current ratio below 65-75 historical average | - | action | Calculated from $5,110 gold / $85.12 silver | confirmed | - | - | - | 2026-03-13 | - | - |
| SF019 | Silver "rich" vs gold at current levels | - | precedent | Historical mean-reversion pattern | confirmed | - | - | - | 2026-03-13 | - | - |
| id | cohort | participantType | direction | entryPrice | currentPnl | volume | purpose | thesis | entryDate | stopLoss | takeProfit | confidence | method | references |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PO001 | Institutional Investors | hedge-fund | short | $90-120 | -15% to -30% | high | directional | Fast down velocity (42%), selling into rallies, post-ATH distribution pattern. Velocity ratio 0.70 indicates persistent selling pressure. However, magnitude decreasing suggests position reduction nearing completion. | 2025-12-01 | - | - | high | velocity-inference | EV001 |
| PO002 | Commercial Hedgers | producer | short | $85-95 | profitable | medium | hedging | Likely adding hedges at elevated levels ($85-95). Silver miners and industrial users typically hedge aggressively after parabolic moves. Price behavior near $90 shows increased selling resistance. | 2026-01-15 | - | - | medium | cot-inference | EV001 |
| PO003 | Speculators | cta | mixed | mixed | mixed | high | momentum | High volume on both directions. Contributing to fast moves in both directions. COT data historically shows managed money extended long at ATH — likely reduced but still net-long positioning. Attracted to volatility. | various | - | - | medium | volatility-inference | - |
| PO004 | Retail Investors | retail | long | $90-120 | -15% to -40% | medium | investment | Slow upward velocity (35%) suggests steady dip-buying. Physical silver premiums remain elevated. Social media "silver squeeze" narrative still active. Many entries at $90-120 now underwater. | 2025-11-01 | - | - | high | premium-inference | EV001 |
| entity | type | weight | basis | confidence | lastUpdated | references |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV001 | event | 25% | Most acute near-term catalyst. March delivery stress index 84/88 creates potential squeeze conditions. Physical tightness is the dominant narrative driving price action in a market transitioning from parabolic surge. | high | 2026-03-13 | EV001,SF001,SF002,SF003,SF004 |
| EV009 | event | 18% | Fastest growing structural demand driver at ~15% of total demand and rising. 20-30% annual growth in solar installations creates persistent demand floor that outpaces supply growth. | high | 2026-03-13 | EV009,SF005,SF006,SF007 |
| EV006 | event | 15% | Sixth consecutive deficit year reinforces the structural supply-demand imbalance. Cumulative deficits compound over time, drawing down above-ground stocks. | high | 2026-03-13 | EV006,SF011,SF012 |
| - | event | 12% | Silver's beta to gold (1.5-2x) makes gold price action the primary directional driver for the precious metal component (~45% of demand). Gold at $5,110 supports silver floor. | - | 2026-03-13 | - |
| EV002 | event | 10% | Structural supply inelasticity means silver production doesn't respond to silver prices. Creates amplified price moves in both directions when demand shifts. Copper mine disruptions (Grasberg, Chile) compound the constraint. | high | 2026-03-13 | EV002,SF013,SF014,SF015 |
| EV017 | event | 7% | Partial offset to solar demand growth. Mass production Q2 2026 but only affects back-contact cells; PERC cells still silver-intensive. Medium-term demand risk. | medium | 2026-03-13 | EV017,SF008,SF009,SF010 |
| EV016 | event | 5% | Industrial demand softness signal, but conflicting with RatingDog PMI 52.1. China is ~20% of silver demand; contraction creates headwind. | medium | 2026-03-13 | EV016,SF016,SF017 |
| EV013 | event | 4% | Below historical average (65-75) limits upside from ratio compression trade. Silver is "rich" vs gold; no catch-up trade available. | - | 2026-03-13 | EV013 |
| EV011 | event | 3% | Emerging demand segment growing but still small (~3-5% of demand). Long-term structural tailwind. | - | 2026-03-13 | EV011 |
| EV008 | event | 1% | Long-dated supply offset (2026-2027 startups). Minor bearish impact at current stage. | - | 2026-03-13 | EV008 |
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Overall Bias | mildly bullish |
| Confidence | medium |
| Time Horizon | 2-6 weeks |
| Key Driver | EV001: COMEX inventory stress — 88.78M oz registered vs 52.6M oz March delivery standing (stress index 84/88) |
| Key Risk | China industrial demand weakness (EV016) + solar substitution to copper (EV017) accelerating faster than expected |
| rank | id | name | type | why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | EV001 | COMEX registered inventory at record low 88.78M oz | unified-event | 25%% influence weight. Most acute near-term catalyst. March delivery stress index 84/88 creates potential squeeze conditions. Physical tightness is the dominant narrative driving price action in a market transitioning from |
| 2 | EV009 | Solar/PV demand ~160M oz forecast for 2026 | unified-event | 18%% influence weight. Fastest growing structural demand driver at ~15% of total demand and rising. 20-30% annual growth in solar installations creates persistent demand floor that outpaces supply growth. |
| 3 | EV006 | 67M oz structural market deficit | unified-event | 15%% influence weight. Sixth consecutive deficit year reinforces the structural supply-demand imbalance. Cumulative deficits compound over time, drawing down above-ground stocks. |
| 4 | - | Gold trading at ~$5,110 (gold price support) | unified-event | 12%% influence weight. Silver's beta to gold (1.5-2x) makes gold price action the primary directional driver for the precious metal component (~45% of demand). Gold at $5,110 supports silver floor. |
| 5 | EV002 | Byproduct supply constraint (~75%) | unified-event | 10%% influence weight. Structural supply inelasticity means silver production doesn't respond to silver prices. Creates amplified price moves in both directions when demand shifts. Copper mine disruptions (Grasberg, Chile) |
| scenario | probability | priceTarget | keyAssumption | keyEvents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base Case: Consolidation | 50% | $78-92 | COMEX stress normalizes via EFP/rolling; China demand stabilizes; gold holds $4,900-5,200 | EV001,EV006,EV014 |
| Bull Case: Squeeze Attempt | 25% | $105-120 | March delivery fails to settle; gold breaks $5,300; physical demand surge | EV001,EV014 |
| Bear Case: Industrial Collapse | 25% | $65-72 | China recession deepens; gold breaks $4,800; solar substitution accelerates | EV016,EV017,EV015 |
| id | risk | trigger | wouldChangeBiasTo | monitoringSignal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R001 | China demand collapse | China PMI <48 for 2+ months; copper imports -20%+ | bearish | Monthly PMI releases; China Customs trade data |
| R002 | COMEX stress resolution | March delivery settles via EFP; registered inventory stabilizes | neutral | COMEX daily reports; delivery standing updates |
| R003 | Solar substitution acceleration | Longi/Jinko copper cell volume exceeds forecasts | bearish | Industry capacity announcements; silver loading per panel data |
| R004 | Gold breakdown | Gold breaks $4,800 support | bearish | XAU_USD price action; real yield moves |
| R005 | Squeeze materialization | Delivery failure; registered <50M oz | strongly bullish | CME default notices; premium expansion |
| priority | id | item | checkFrequency | nextCheck | triggerCondition |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MP001 | COMEX registered silver inventory | daily | 2026-03-14 | Drop below 80M oz or stabilization above 95M oz |
| 2 | MP002 | March delivery standing | daily | 2026-03-14 | Standing exceeds 55M oz or drops below 45M oz |
| 3 | MP003 | Gold price (XAU_USD) | daily | 2026-03-14 | Break below $4,900 or above $5,300 |
| 4 | MP004 | China Manufacturing PMI | monthly | 2026-04-01 | Move below 48 or recovery above 50 |
| 5 | MP005 | Gold/silver ratio | weekly | 2026-03-17 | Expansion above 65 or compression below 55 |
| 6 | MP006 | Solar substitution news | weekly | 2026-03-17 | Production volume announcements from Longi/Jinko |
No point-in-time snapshots generated yet.
| id | instrument | forecastDate | targetDate | targetTimeframe | compositePrice | compositeLow | compositeHigh | compositeConfidence | status | actualClose | error | errorPercent | references |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PF001 | XAG_USD | 2026-03-13 | 2026-04-15 | 33 days | 85 | 72 | 105 | medium | active | - | - | - | EV001,EV006,EV009,EV014,EV016,EV017 |
| track | method | predictedPrice | predictedLow | predictedHigh | confidence | weight | reasoning | references |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| fundamental | supply-demand-decomposition | 85 | 72 | 105 | medium | 0.3 | Net bullish fundamental balance (+17.5% influence weight). COMEX stress dominant. Fair value $82-88. | EV001,EV006,EV009 |
| technical | velocity-pattern-analysis | 80 | 64 | 96 | high | 0.9 | Bearish bias with stabilization. Lower high series confirmed. Primary target $80 support test. | - |