| entity | type | weight | basis | confidence | lastUpdated | references |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV001 | event | 25% | Most acute near-term catalyst. March delivery stress index 84/88 creates potential squeeze conditions. Physical tightness is the dominant narrative driving price action in a market transitioning from parabolic surge. | high | 2026-03-13 | EV001,SF001,SF002,SF003,SF004 |
| EV009 | event | 18% | Fastest growing structural demand driver at ~15% of total demand and rising. 20-30% annual growth in solar installations creates persistent demand floor that outpaces supply growth. | high | 2026-03-13 | EV009,SF005,SF006,SF007 |
| EV006 | event | 15% | Sixth consecutive deficit year reinforces the structural supply-demand imbalance. Cumulative deficits compound over time, drawing down above-ground stocks. | high | 2026-03-13 | EV006,SF011,SF012 |
| - | event | 12% | Silver's beta to gold (1.5-2x) makes gold price action the primary directional driver for the precious metal component (~45% of demand). Gold at $5,110 supports silver floor. | - | 2026-03-13 | - |
| EV002 | event | 10% | Structural supply inelasticity means silver production doesn't respond to silver prices. Creates amplified price moves in both directions when demand shifts. Copper mine disruptions (Grasberg, Chile) compound the constraint. | high | 2026-03-13 | EV002,SF013,SF014,SF015 |
| EV017 | event | 7% | Partial offset to solar demand growth. Mass production Q2 2026 but only affects back-contact cells; PERC cells still silver-intensive. Medium-term demand risk. | medium | 2026-03-13 | EV017,SF008,SF009,SF010 |
| EV016 | event | 5% | Industrial demand softness signal, but conflicting with RatingDog PMI 52.1. China is ~20% of silver demand; contraction creates headwind. | medium | 2026-03-13 | EV016,SF016,SF017 |
| EV013 | event | 4% | Below historical average (65-75) limits upside from ratio compression trade. Silver is "rich" vs gold; no catch-up trade available. | - | 2026-03-13 | EV013 |
| EV011 | event | 3% | Emerging demand segment growing but still small (~3-5% of demand). Long-term structural tailwind. | - | 2026-03-13 | EV011 |
| EV008 | event | 1% | Long-dated supply offset (2026-2027 startups). Minor bearish impact at current stage. | - | 2026-03-13 | EV008 |
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Overall Bias | mildly bullish |
| Confidence | medium |
| Time Horizon | 2-6 weeks |
| Key Driver | EV001: COMEX inventory stress — 88.78M oz registered vs 52.6M oz March delivery standing (stress index 84/88) |
| Key Risk | China industrial demand weakness (EV016) + solar substitution to copper (EV017) accelerating faster than expected |
| rank | id | name | type | why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | EV001 | COMEX registered inventory at record low 88.78M oz | unified-event | 25%% influence weight. Most acute near-term catalyst. March delivery stress index 84/88 creates potential squeeze conditions. Physical tightness is the dominant narrative driving price action in a market transitioning from |
| 2 | EV009 | Solar/PV demand ~160M oz forecast for 2026 | unified-event | 18%% influence weight. Fastest growing structural demand driver at ~15% of total demand and rising. 20-30% annual growth in solar installations creates persistent demand floor that outpaces supply growth. |
| 3 | EV006 | 67M oz structural market deficit | unified-event | 15%% influence weight. Sixth consecutive deficit year reinforces the structural supply-demand imbalance. Cumulative deficits compound over time, drawing down above-ground stocks. |
| 4 | - | Gold trading at ~$5,110 (gold price support) | unified-event | 12%% influence weight. Silver's beta to gold (1.5-2x) makes gold price action the primary directional driver for the precious metal component (~45% of demand). Gold at $5,110 supports silver floor. |
| 5 | EV002 | Byproduct supply constraint (~75%) | unified-event | 10%% influence weight. Structural supply inelasticity means silver production doesn't respond to silver prices. Creates amplified price moves in both directions when demand shifts. Copper mine disruptions (Grasberg, Chile) |
| scenario | probability | priceTarget | keyAssumption | keyEvents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base Case: Consolidation | 50% | $78-92 | COMEX stress normalizes via EFP/rolling; China demand stabilizes; gold holds $4,900-5,200 | EV001,EV006,EV014 |
| Bull Case: Squeeze Attempt | 25% | $105-120 | March delivery fails to settle; gold breaks $5,300; physical demand surge | EV001,EV014 |
| Bear Case: Industrial Collapse | 25% | $65-72 | China recession deepens; gold breaks $4,800; solar substitution accelerates | EV016,EV017,EV015 |
| id | risk | trigger | wouldChangeBiasTo | monitoringSignal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R001 | China demand collapse | China PMI <48 for 2+ months; copper imports -20%+ | bearish | Monthly PMI releases; China Customs trade data |
| R002 | COMEX stress resolution | March delivery settles via EFP; registered inventory stabilizes | neutral | COMEX daily reports; delivery standing updates |
| R003 | Solar substitution acceleration | Longi/Jinko copper cell volume exceeds forecasts | bearish | Industry capacity announcements; silver loading per panel data |
| R004 | Gold breakdown | Gold breaks $4,800 support | bearish | XAU_USD price action; real yield moves |
| R005 | Squeeze materialization | Delivery failure; registered <50M oz | strongly bullish | CME default notices; premium expansion |
| priority | id | item | checkFrequency | nextCheck | triggerCondition |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MP001 | COMEX registered silver inventory | daily | 2026-03-14 | Drop below 80M oz or stabilization above 95M oz |
| 2 | MP002 | March delivery standing | daily | 2026-03-14 | Standing exceeds 55M oz or drops below 45M oz |
| 3 | MP003 | Gold price (XAU_USD) | daily | 2026-03-14 | Break below $4,900 or above $5,300 |
| 4 | MP004 | China Manufacturing PMI | monthly | 2026-04-01 | Move below 48 or recovery above 50 |
| 5 | MP005 | Gold/silver ratio | weekly | 2026-03-17 | Expansion above 65 or compression below 55 |
| 6 | MP006 | Solar substitution news | weekly | 2026-03-17 | Production volume announcements from Longi/Jinko |