| entity | type | weight | basis | confidence | lastUpdated | references |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV007 | event | 25% | Just released today; core PCE is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge; 3.0% beat vs 2.8% expected directly impacts Fed policy expectations and real yield calculations. This is the dominant near-term driver. | high | 2026-03-13 | EV007,SF010,SF011,SF012 |
| EV008 | event | 20% | Ongoing supply disruption keeping Brent at $101; adds to inflation expectations and reduces bond demand via negative real return impact. Duration uncertain (2-4 weeks to war end) but immediate price action significant. | high | 2026-03-13 | EV008,SF013,SF014,SF015 |
| EV010 | event | 15% | Largest job loss since pandemic creates competing safe haven bid; however, stagflation narrative (weak growth + inflation) currently tips toward inflation concern. Labor weakness provides floor to yield upside. | high | 2026-03-13 | EV010,SF016,SF017,SF018 |
| EV002 | event | 12% | Direct evidence of weak demand for Treasury supply at current yields; signals institutional reluctance and supply-demand imbalance. Recent and directly relevant to price discovery. | high | 2026-03-13 | EV002,SF004,SF005 |
| EV001 | event | 10% | Structural factor creating persistent supply overhang; however, well-known and partially priced. Weight reflects ongoing but not acute influence. | high | 2026-03-13 | EV001,SF001,SF002,SF003 |
| EV005 | event | 8% | Reflects current consensus view embedded in prices; marginal influence as view shifts. Important for anchoring expectations but not active catalyst. | high | 2026-03-13 | EV005,SF019,SF020 |
| EV003 | event | 5% | Ongoing withdrawal of major buyer; gradual and mechanical. Low weight because well-anticipated and steady. | high | 2026-03-13 | EV003,SF006,SF007 |
| EV004 | event | 3% | Forward-looking factor; May 2026 transition. Currently low weight but could increase as confirmation hearings approach. | medium | 2026-03-13 | EV004,SF008,SF009 |
| EV012 | event | 2% | Backward-looking data; already reflected in market. Minor safe haven support. | medium | 2026-03-13 | EV012 |
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Overall Bias | Bullish for yields (bearish for bond prices) |
| Confidence | Medium |
| Time Horizon | 1-2 weeks (through FOMC Mar 18-19) |
| Key Driver | EV007: Sticky inflation (PCE 3.0%) compounded by EV008: oil shock |
| Key Risk | EV010: Labor market deterioration could trigger safe haven bid, capping yields |
| rank | id | name | type | why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | EV007 | Sticky inflation — PCE core at 3.0% YoY | unified-event | 25%% influence weight. Just released today; core PCE is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge; 3.0% beat vs 2.8% expected directly impacts Fed policy expectations and real yield calculations. This is the dominant near-term dr |
| 2 | EV008 | Oil shock from Iran/Hormuz closure | unified-event | 20%% influence weight. Ongoing supply disruption keeping Brent at $101; adds to inflation expectations and reduces bond demand via negative real return impact. Duration uncertain (2-4 weeks to war end) but immediate price a |
| 3 | EV010 | NFP -92K massive miss | unified-event | 15%% influence weight. Largest job loss since pandemic creates competing safe haven bid; however, stagflation narrative (weak growth + inflation) currently tips toward inflation concern. Labor weakness provides floor to yie |
| 4 | EV002 | 20-year auction tail in late February | unified-event | 12%% influence weight. Direct evidence of weak demand for Treasury supply at current yields; signals institutional reluctance and supply-demand imbalance. Recent and directly relevant to price discovery. |
| 5 | EV001 | Treasury issuance pressure from fiscal deficits | unified-event | 10%% influence weight. Structural factor creating persistent supply overhang; however, well-known and partially priced. Weight reflects ongoing but not acute influence. |
| scenario | probability | priceTarget | keyAssumption | keyEvents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base: Yields grind higher | 55% | - | FOMC holds hawkish; oil shock persists through Mar; labor data mixed | EV007,EV008,EV002,EV005 |
| Bull (for yields): Stagflation panic | 25% | - | Oil spikes further or Hormuz closure extends; March FOMC hawkish surprise on dot plot; next auction also tails | EV008,EV007,EV002 |
| Bear (for yields): Recession bid | 20% | - | Labor data deteriorates further; crisis escalation triggers safe haven bid; war ends rapidly and oil collapses | EV010,EV011,EV012,EV014 |
| id | risk | trigger | wouldChangeBiasTo | monitoringSignal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R001 | Rapid labor deterioration | Weekly claims surge, next NFP deeply negative | bearish (yields falling) | Initial claims above 250K; next NFP negative again |
| R002 | Oil shock resolution | Hormuz reopens, war ends, Brent below $85 | neutral | IEA/shipping confirm safe passage; Brent sustained under $90 |
| R003 | BoJ intervention selling Treasuries | USD/JPY breaks 160, MoF confirms intervention | bullish intensifies | USD/JPY above 160; MoF verbal warnings escalate |
| R004 | FOMC dovish surprise | Dot plot shows 2+ cuts; Powell emphasizes labor risk | bearish | SEP median dots shift down; statement language softens |
| R005 | Foreign central bank demand collapse | China or Japan large-scale selling | bullish intensifies | TIC data shows outflows; auction foreign participation drops |
| priority | id | item | checkFrequency | nextCheck | triggerCondition |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MP001 | FOMC meeting Mar 18-19 | event-driven | Mar 19 2026 | Dot plot, SEP projections, Powell presser |
| 2 | MP002 | Oil price / Hormuz status | daily | Mar 14 2026 | Brent sustained above $105 or below $90 |
| 3 | MP003 | Weekly jobless claims | weekly | Mar 13 2026 (today) | Claims above 250K signals acceleration |
| 4 | MP004 | 10Y / 20Y / 30Y auction results | event-driven | Next auction date | Tail size, bid-to-cover ratio |
| 5 | MP005 | USD/JPY intervention risk | daily | Mar 14 2026 | USD/JPY above 160; MoF verbal intervention |
| 6 | MP006 | War ending signals | daily | Mar 14 2026 | Iran ceasefire announcement; Hormuz demining |