US10Y — Full Analysis

Analysis date: 2026-03-13 | Source: us10y-2026-03-13.md

Sections: Events & Drivers Fundamental Analysis Technical Analysis Regime Analysis Forecasts & Attribution

Meta

FieldValue
AssetUS 10-Year Treasury Yield
ClassFixed Income / Government Bond
Ticker-
RelatedTLT (20+ Year Treasury ETF), IEF (7-10 Year Treasury ETF), TBT (2x Short 20+ Year), TMF (3x Long 20+ Year), SHY (1-3 Year), TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected), DXY (US Dollar Index), VIX
Analysis Date2026-03-13
Data Freshness2026-03-13T06:45:00Z

Track Validity

trackcreatedlastValidatedvalidFromvalidTotradingDayscalendarDays
Fundamental2026-03-13T14:00:00Z2026-03-13T14:00:00Z2026-03-132026-03-2168
Technical2026-03-13T06:00:00Z2026-03-13T06:00:00Z2026-03-132026-03-2057
Regime2026-03-13T06:30:00Z2026-03-13T06:30:00Z2026-03-132026-03-271014
Market Structure2026-03-13T06:00:00Z2026-03-13T06:00:00Z2026-03-132026-03-271014

Unified Events

idnameparentcategorytemporalStaterealizationStatusvaluetrendsignificancedirectionmagnitudedurationprobabilityconfidencedatestartDateprojectedEndleadTimeleadTimeBasissourceTypelastUpdatedtopicssourcesevidenceForevidenceAgainstleadTimeEvidencereferences
EV001Treasury issuance pressure from fiscal deficits-supplypresentconfirmedLarge structural deficit ~$1.5T+stablehighbullishmajorstructural-high2026-03-132020-01-01---llm-search2026-03-13fiscal,treasury,supplyS001SF001,SF002,SF003--EV002,EV003
EV00220-year auction tail in late February-supplypastconfirmedSignificant tail, weak bid-to-cover-highbullishmajorshort-high2026-02-28----llm-search2026-03-13auction,demand,supplyS002SF004,SF005--EV001
EV003Fed QT continues (balance sheet runoff)-supplypresentconfirmed$95B/month runoffstablehighbullishmoderatesustained-high2026-03-132022-06-01---llm-search2026-03-13fed,qt,supplyS003SF006,SF007--EV001
EV004Kevin Warsh nominated as Fed Chair successor-supplyfutureregisteredWarsh nominated-mediumbullishmoderatesustained80%medium2026-05-23--10 weeksPowell term expiryllm-search2026-03-13fed,chair,policyS004SF008,SF009--EV005
EV005Market pricing only one 25bp cut in 2026-supplypresentconfirmedOne 25bp cut priceddeceleratinghighbullishmoderatesustained-high2026-03-13----llm-search2026-03-13fed,rates,futuresS005SF019,SF020--EV004,EV007
EV006FOMC March meeting expected hold with hawkish tilt-supplyfutureregisteredHold expected with hawkish dot plot-highbullishmoderatetransient92%high2026-03-19--6 daysFOMC calendarllm-search2026-03-13fomc,rates,policyS003---EV005,EV007
EV007Sticky inflation — PCE core at 3.0% YoY-demandpresentconfirmed3.0% YoY core PCEacceleratinghighbullishmajorsustained-high2026-03-13----llm-search2026-03-13inflation,pce,fedS006SF010,SF011,SF012--EV008,EV005
EV008Oil shock from Iran/Hormuz closure-demandpresentconfirmedBrent ~$101, Hormuz blockedvolatilehighbullishmajorshort-high2026-03-132026-02-282026-04-01--llm-search2026-03-13oil,iran,geopoliticalS007SF013,SF014,SF015--EV007
EV009ISM Manufacturing Prices surge to 70.5-demandpastconfirmed70.5 (surged 11.5 pts)acceleratingmediumbullishmoderateshort-high2026-03-03----llm-search2026-03-13ism,manufacturing,inflationS008---EV007
EV010NFP -92K massive miss-demandpastconfirmed-92,000 jobsdeceleratinghighbearishmajorshort-high2026-03-06----llm-search2026-03-13labor,nfp,recessionS009SF016,SF017,SF018--EV011,EV012
EV011Unemployment jumps to 4.4%EV010demandpastconfirmed4.4%acceleratinghighbearishmoderateshort-high2026-03-06----llm-search2026-03-13labor,unemploymentS009SF018--EV010
EV012GDP decelerates to 1.4% (Q4 2025)-demandpastconfirmed1.4% QoQ ann.deceleratingmediumbearishmoderateshort-high2026-02-20----llm-search2026-03-13gdp,growth,recessionS010---EV010
EV013VIX elevated at 30+-demandpresentconfirmed~30+elevatedmediumbearishmoderatetransient-high2026-03-13----llm-search2026-03-13vix,volatility,riskS011---EV010,EV008
EV014Geopolitical crisis safe haven bidEV008demandpresentpartialModerate safe haven bidstablemediumbearishmoderatetransient-medium2026-03-13----llm-search2026-03-13geopolitical,safe-havenS007-EV007-EV008
EV015Japan selling Treasuries for intervention-demandpresentpartialUSD/JPY at 159.38acceleratingmediumbullishmoderatetransient50%medium2026-03-13----llm-search2026-03-13japan,intervention,fxS012----
EV016Foreign central bank demand uncertain-demandpresentpartialDe-dollarization trendstablelowbullishminorsustained-low2026-03-13----llm-search2026-03-13foreign,central-bank,demandS013----

Sources

idsourceauthortypedatequoteaudiencecredibilityimpactreferences
S001CBO-gov-report2026-02-01Deficit projections exceed $1.5T annuallypublichighEV001EV001
S002Treasury Direct-gov-data2026-02-2820-year auction tailed significantlypublichighEV002EV002
S003Federal Reserve-central-bank2026-01-28Balance sheet reduction continuespublichighEV003,EV006EV003,EV006
S004Multiple news outlets-news-report2026-03-12Warsh nominated as Fed Chair successorpublichighEV004EV004
S005CME FedWatch-market-data2026-03-13Only one 25bp cut priced for 2026professionalhighEV005EV005
S006BEA-gov-data2026-03-13Core PCE 3.0% YoY, above 2.8% expectedpublichighEV007EV007
S007Bloomberg/CNBC-news-report2026-03-12Hormuz remains blocked; Brent at $101publichighEV008,EV014EV008,EV014
S008ISM-survey-data2026-03-03Manufacturing Prices surge to 70.5publichighEV009EV009
S009BLS-gov-data2026-03-06NFP -92K; unemployment 4.4%publichighEV010,EV011EV010,EV011
S010BEA-gov-data2026-02-20Q4 GDP 1.4% advancepublichighEV012EV012
S011CBOE-market-data2026-03-13VIX at 30+professionalhighEV013EV013
S012TradingEconomics-market-data2026-03-13USD/JPY at 159.38, intervention watchprofessionalmediumEV015EV015
S013IMF COFER-research2026-01-01Reserve diversification continuesprofessionalmediumEV016EV016

Sub-Factors

idsubFactorparenttypevalueEvidencestatusleadTimestartDateprojectedEndlastUpdatedsourcesreferences
SF001Federal budget deficit exceeds $1.5T annuallyEV001constraintCBO projections, structural entitlement spendingconfirmed-2020-01-01-2026-03-13S001EV001
SF002No fiscal consolidation legislation pendingEV001constraintCongress focused on tariffs and trade policy, not deficit reductionconfirmed---2026-03-13S001EV001
SF003Auction sizes have increased across maturity spectrumEV001actionTreasury announced larger coupon auction sizes for 2026confirmed-2026-01-01-2026-03-13S002EV001
SF004Bid-to-cover ratio below recent averagesEV002actionWeak demand forced higher yield to clearconfirmed---2026-03-13S002EV002
SF005Duration demand weak amid rate uncertaintyEV002capabilityInstitutional buyers reluctant at current yields given inflation uncertaintyconfirmed---2026-03-13S002EV002
SF006$95B/month balance sheet runoff in effect-actionFed policy statement confirms ongoing QTconfirmed-2022-06-01-2026-03-13S003-
SF007No discussion of pausing QT at recent meetings-intentionPowell has signaled QT to continue on autopilotconfirmed---2026-03-13S003-
SF008Warsh historically inflation-hawkishEV004precedentDissented on QE during 2010-2011; favors earlier tighteningconfirmed---2026-03-13S004EV004
SF009Senate confirmation likely given Republican majorityEV004capabilityNomination process standard but not guaranteed; May 2026 timelinepartial---2026-03-13S004EV004
SF010Core PCE beat expectations (3.0% vs 2.8% expected)EV007actionBEA official release March 13, 2026confirmed---2026-03-13S006EV007
SF011Services inflation remains elevatedEV007constraintShelter and non-housing services stickyconfirmed---2026-03-13S006EV007
SF012Oil shock adds to inflation expectationsEV007capabilityBrent at $101; energy pass-through to broader inflationconfirmed---2026-03-13S007EV007
SF013Strait of Hormuz remains mined and blockedEV008actionIran IRGC mines still in place; limited traffic testing passageconfirmed-2026-02-28-2026-03-13S007EV008
SF01420% of global oil transits HormuzEV008constraintStrategic chokepoint for Gulf producersconfirmed---2026-03-13S007EV008
SF015War expected to end in 2-4 weeksEV008intentionTrump signals winding down; but Hormuz reopening timeline unclearpartial2-4 weeks-2026-04-012026-03-13S007EV008
SF016February payrolls confirmed at -92,000EV010actionBLS official release March 6, 2026confirmed---2026-03-13S009EV010
SF017DOGE layoffs contributed to job lossesEV010capabilityFederal workforce reductions impacting payrollsconfirmed---2026-03-13S009EV010
SF018Unemployment rate jumped 0.3pp to 4.4%EV010actionHighest since October 2021confirmed---2026-03-13S009EV010
SF019Fed funds futures imply September cut onlyEV005actionCME FedWatch probability dataconfirmed---2026-03-13S005EV005
SF020Oil shock repriced inflation outlookEV005capabilityMarket expectations shifted sharply post-Hormuz closureconfirmed---2026-03-13S007EV005

Positions

idcohortparticipantTypedirectionentryPricecurrentPnlvolumepurposethesisentryDatestopLosstakeProfitconfidencemethodreferences
PO001Institutionalasset-managershort113.5-1.9Highduration-reductionFast downward velocity (0.091 pts/4hr) vs slow upward (0.058 pts/4hr); high volume on selloffs (2000-2600 contracts); sustained multi-day decline from 114.0 to 111.6 without significant retracement2026-02-28-110.5highvelocity-inferredEV007,EV008
PO002Commercialpension-fundlong111.8-0.2MediumhedgingDuration liability managers likely buying as yields rise to 4.27% (highest in months); provides liquidity but insufficient to reverse trend; consistent with pension/insurance ALM flows2026-03-10--mediumvelocity-inferredEV010
PO003Speculativectashort113.0-1.4MediummomentumMomentum funds riding yield surge; positioning data shows VIX at 90th percentile suggesting risk-off but concurrent yield rise implies inflation-driven selling, not flight-to-safety2026-03-01112.75110.0highvelocity-inferredEV007,EV008
PO004Retailretaillong112.2-0.6Lowdip-buyingSlow recovery attempts with low volume; classic "buying the dip" behavior visible in Mar 9 session; velocity signature shows retail unable to absorb institutional supply2026-03-09--mediumvelocity-inferred-

Influence Weights

entitytypeweightbasisconfidencelastUpdatedreferences
EV007event25%Just released today; core PCE is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge; 3.0% beat vs 2.8% expected directly impacts Fed policy expectations and real yield calculations. This is the dominant near-term driver.high2026-03-13EV007,SF010,SF011,SF012
EV008event20%Ongoing supply disruption keeping Brent at $101; adds to inflation expectations and reduces bond demand via negative real return impact. Duration uncertain (2-4 weeks to war end) but immediate price action significant.high2026-03-13EV008,SF013,SF014,SF015
EV010event15%Largest job loss since pandemic creates competing safe haven bid; however, stagflation narrative (weak growth + inflation) currently tips toward inflation concern. Labor weakness provides floor to yield upside.high2026-03-13EV010,SF016,SF017,SF018
EV002event12%Direct evidence of weak demand for Treasury supply at current yields; signals institutional reluctance and supply-demand imbalance. Recent and directly relevant to price discovery.high2026-03-13EV002,SF004,SF005
EV001event10%Structural factor creating persistent supply overhang; however, well-known and partially priced. Weight reflects ongoing but not acute influence.high2026-03-13EV001,SF001,SF002,SF003
EV005event8%Reflects current consensus view embedded in prices; marginal influence as view shifts. Important for anchoring expectations but not active catalyst.high2026-03-13EV005,SF019,SF020
EV003event5%Ongoing withdrawal of major buyer; gradual and mechanical. Low weight because well-anticipated and steady.high2026-03-13EV003,SF006,SF007
EV004event3%Forward-looking factor; May 2026 transition. Currently low weight but could increase as confirmation hearings approach.medium2026-03-13EV004,SF008,SF009
EV012event2%Backward-looking data; already reflected in market. Minor safe haven support.medium2026-03-13EV012

Synthesis

FieldValue
Overall BiasBullish for yields (bearish for bond prices)
ConfidenceMedium
Time Horizon1-2 weeks (through FOMC Mar 18-19)
Key DriverEV007: Sticky inflation (PCE 3.0%) compounded by EV008: oil shock
Key RiskEV010: Labor market deterioration could trigger safe haven bid, capping yields

Key Drivers

rankidnametypewhy
1EV007Sticky inflation — PCE core at 3.0% YoYunified-event25%% influence weight. Just released today; core PCE is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge; 3.0% beat vs 2.8% expected directly impacts Fed policy expectations and real yield calculations. This is the dominant near-term dr
2EV008Oil shock from Iran/Hormuz closureunified-event20%% influence weight. Ongoing supply disruption keeping Brent at $101; adds to inflation expectations and reduces bond demand via negative real return impact. Duration uncertain (2-4 weeks to war end) but immediate price a
3EV010NFP -92K massive missunified-event15%% influence weight. Largest job loss since pandemic creates competing safe haven bid; however, stagflation narrative (weak growth + inflation) currently tips toward inflation concern. Labor weakness provides floor to yie
4EV00220-year auction tail in late Februaryunified-event12%% influence weight. Direct evidence of weak demand for Treasury supply at current yields; signals institutional reluctance and supply-demand imbalance. Recent and directly relevant to price discovery.
5EV001Treasury issuance pressure from fiscal deficitsunified-event10%% influence weight. Structural factor creating persistent supply overhang; however, well-known and partially priced. Weight reflects ongoing but not acute influence.

Scenarios

scenarioprobabilitypriceTargetkeyAssumptionkeyEvents
Base: Yields grind higher55%-FOMC holds hawkish; oil shock persists through Mar; labor data mixedEV007,EV008,EV002,EV005
Bull (for yields): Stagflation panic25%-Oil spikes further or Hormuz closure extends; March FOMC hawkish surprise on dot plot; next auction also tailsEV008,EV007,EV002
Bear (for yields): Recession bid20%-Labor data deteriorates further; crisis escalation triggers safe haven bid; war ends rapidly and oil collapsesEV010,EV011,EV012,EV014

Risks to View

idrisktriggerwouldChangeBiasTomonitoringSignal
R001Rapid labor deteriorationWeekly claims surge, next NFP deeply negativebearish (yields falling)Initial claims above 250K; next NFP negative again
R002Oil shock resolutionHormuz reopens, war ends, Brent below $85neutralIEA/shipping confirm safe passage; Brent sustained under $90
R003BoJ intervention selling TreasuriesUSD/JPY breaks 160, MoF confirms interventionbullish intensifiesUSD/JPY above 160; MoF verbal warnings escalate
R004FOMC dovish surpriseDot plot shows 2+ cuts; Powell emphasizes labor riskbearishSEP median dots shift down; statement language softens
R005Foreign central bank demand collapseChina or Japan large-scale sellingbullish intensifiesTIC data shows outflows; auction foreign participation drops

Monitoring Priorities

priorityiditemcheckFrequencynextChecktriggerCondition
1MP001FOMC meeting Mar 18-19event-drivenMar 19 2026Dot plot, SEP projections, Powell presser
2MP002Oil price / Hormuz statusdailyMar 14 2026Brent sustained above $105 or below $90
3MP003Weekly jobless claimsweeklyMar 13 2026 (today)Claims above 250K signals acceleration
4MP00410Y / 20Y / 30Y auction resultsevent-drivenNext auction dateTail size, bid-to-cover ratio
5MP005USD/JPY intervention riskdailyMar 14 2026USD/JPY above 160; MoF verbal intervention
6MP006War ending signalsdailyMar 14 2026Iran ceasefire announcement; Hormuz demining

Regime Analysis

Regime Result

Price Attribution

No point-in-time snapshots generated yet.

Price Forecasts

idinstrumentforecastDatetargetDatetargetTimeframecompositePricecompositeLowcompositeHighcompositeConfidencestatusactualCloseerrorerrorPercentreferences
PF001USB10Y_USD2026-03-132026-03-216 trading days110.75110111.5mediumactive---EV007,EV008,EV002

PF001

trackmethodpredictedPricepredictedLowpredictedHighconfidenceweightreasoningreferences
fundamentalsupply-demand-decomposition110.5109.7111medium40Inflation + oil shock + weak auctions = yields grind higherEV007,EV008,EV002
technicalvelocity-pattern110.75110.5111high35Downtrend intact; bear flag measured move to 110.5-
regimeinflation-scare-regime110.5109112medium25Inflation Scare regime active; yields biased higher until catalyst fadesEV007,EV008