US10Y — Technical Analysis

Analysis date: 2026-03-13

Technical Analysis Result

Technical Analysis Result — USB10Y_USD — 2026-03-13

Temporal Validity

Field	Value
Created	2026-03-13T06:00:00Z
Last Validated	2026-03-13T06:00:00Z
Valid From	2026-03-13
Valid To	2026-03-20
Trading Days	5
Calendar Days	7
Data Window	2025-03-28 to 2026-03-13

Structural View

Field	Value
Dominant Participant	Institutional sellers (macro funds, asset managers reducing duration)
Price Regime	Trending — confirmed downtrend from 114.0 to 111.6
Velocity Regime	Fast-trending — downward velocity 1.6x upward velocity
Bias	Bearish
Confidence	High

Price Targets

target_type	price	basis	timeframe
downside_1	111.00	Weekly range low / psychological level	2-5 days
downside_2	110.50	Bear flag measured move	5-7 days
downside_3	109.70	Apr 2025 low / range breakdown target	7-14 days
recovery_1	112.00	Round number pivot / first resistance	1-3 days
recovery_2	112.75	Mar 9 bounce high / broken support	5-7 days
recovery_3	113.40	Mid-Feb consolidation zone	7-14 days
invalidation	114.20	Above Feb high — trend reversal	—

Convergence Estimate

Field	Value
Current Price	111.60
Target	111.00 (primary), 110.50 (extended)
Estimated Time	2-5 trading days to 111.00
Velocity Regime	Fast downtrend (avg 0.091 pts/4hr decline)
Participant Phase	Distribution — institutional selling into commercial/retail buying

Technical Summary

Dominant Theme: Yield Surge / Bond Selloff

USB10Y_USD is in a confirmed downtrend with strong bearish momentum. The price action since late February shows classic institutional distribution:

1. Velocity signature: Fast down (0.091 pts/4hr), slow up (0.058 pts/4hr) — ratio 0.64 indicates sustained selling pressure 2. Volume profile: Higher volume on down candles confirms institutional participation 3. Pattern structure: Lower highs, lower lows; descending channel; broken bear flag

Key Structural Levels

Level	Type	Significance
114.00	Resistance	Cycle high (Feb 27); major supply zone
113.40	Resistance	Mid-Feb consolidation; first significant barrier
112.75	Resistance	Mar 9 bounce high; broken support
112.00	Pivot	Round number; multiple crosses
111.60	Current	Testing support
111.00	Support	Weekly range low; critical level
109.70	Support	Apr 2025 low; range breakdown target

Scenario Matrix

Scenario	Probability	Price Path	Trigger
Trend continuation	65%	111.6 → 111.0 → 110.5	Break below 111.5 with volume
Pause/consolidation	25%	111.5-112.5 range	Oversold bounce, then resume decline
Trend reversal	10%	111.6 → 113.0+	Close above 112.75 with volume shift

Risk Factors

Bearish continuation risks:

Further oil shock escalation (Iran/Hormuz) drives inflation expectations higher
Strong economic data reinforces Fed hawkish stance
Technical breakdown below 111.0 accelerates selling

Bearish reversal risks:

Oil shock de-escalation (diplomatic resolution)
Sharp equity selloff triggering flight-to-quality into Treasuries
Fed dovish pivot or intervention signals
Technical oversold bounce from 111.0 support

Yield Context

Metric	Value	Implication
Current yield (approx)	4.27%	Highest since Apr 2025
111.00 price	~4.35% yield	Major yield resistance
109.70 price	~4.50% yield	2025 cycle highs

The technical picture is unambiguously bearish for bond prices (bullish for yields). Institutional selling dominates with no signs of exhaustion. The primary path is continuation toward 111.00, with extended targets at 110.50 if momentum persists.

Change Log

date	version	changes
2026-03-13	1.0	Initial analysis

Positions

id	cohort	participantType	direction	entryPrice	currentPnl	volume	purpose	thesis	entryDate	stopLoss	takeProfit	confidence	method	references
PO001	Institutional	asset-manager	short	113.5	-1.9	High	duration-reduction	Fast downward velocity (0.091 pts/4hr) vs slow upward (0.058 pts/4hr); high volume on selloffs (2000-2600 contracts); sustained multi-day decline from 114.0 to 111.6 without significant retracement	2026-02-28	-	110.5	high	velocity-inferred	EV007,EV008
PO002	Commercial	pension-fund	long	111.8	-0.2	Medium	hedging	Duration liability managers likely buying as yields rise to 4.27% (highest in months); provides liquidity but insufficient to reverse trend; consistent with pension/insurance ALM flows	2026-03-10	-	-	medium	velocity-inferred	EV010
PO003	Speculative	cta	short	113.0	-1.4	Medium	momentum	Momentum funds riding yield surge; positioning data shows VIX at 90th percentile suggesting risk-off but concurrent yield rise implies inflation-driven selling, not flight-to-safety	2026-03-01	112.75	110.0	high	velocity-inferred	EV007,EV008
PO004	Retail	retail	long	112.2	-0.6	Low	dip-buying	Slow recovery attempts with low volume; classic "buying the dip" behavior visible in Mar 9 session; velocity signature shows retail unable to absorb institutional supply	2026-03-09	-	-	medium	velocity-inferred	-