US10Y — Trading Opportunities

1 opportunity file(s)

OPP-2026-03-13T05-53-22Z

Opportunity: SHORT US10Y @ 112.00-112.75

Field	Value
ID	OPP-2026-03-13T05-53-22Z
Asset	US 10-Year Treasury Yield
Instrument	USB10Y_USD
Direction	SHORT
Aggregate Kelly	0.703
Win Probability	65%
Current Price	111.60
Included Tiers	T2, T3, T4
Primary Target	111.00
Secondary Target	110.50
Stop Loss	112.85 (T2-T3), 113.00 (T4)
Invalidation	113.00 (H4 close above)
Time Window	7-10 trading days (through FOMC Mar 18-19)
Active Pattern	—
Analysis Date	2026-03-13
Status	active

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Kelly Analysis

Win Probability

Field	Value
Win Probability (W)	65%
Derivation	Trend continuation pattern (65%) reaching 110.5-111.0 target
Losing Patterns	Pause (25% partial), Reversal (10%) = 35%
Note	Conservative estimate using primary pattern only

Per-Tier Kelly

tier	entry	stop	target	R/R	kelly	half_kelly	budget	units	status
T1	111.60	112.85	111.00	0.48	-0.078	0	$0	0	EXCLUDED — negative edge
T2	112.00	112.85	111.00	1.18	0.238	0.119	$1,190	10	included
T3	112.50	112.85	111.00	4.29	0.568	0.284	$2,840	25	included
T4	112.75	113.00	111.00	7.00	0.600	0.300	$3,000	26	included

Aggregate

Field	Value
Aggregate Kelly	0.703
Total Planned Units	61 (all tiers); 10 (T2 only likely)
Bankroll	$10,000
Total Budget Deployed	$7,030 (70.3% of bankroll)
Max Margin	$343.17 / $50,000

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Time Window Derivation

Velocity-Based Calculation

metric	value	source
Current phase avg up velocity	0.058 pts/4hr	technical/velocity.md
Current phase avg down velocity	0.091 pts/4hr	technical/velocity.md
Velocity ratio	0.64	down-biased (institutional distribution)
Empirical net daily progress	~0.15 pts/day	2.4 pts over 14 days (114.0 → 111.6)
Normalized daily estimate	0.10-0.15 pts/day	After consolidation adjustment

Arrival times:

target	distance	at_conservative (0.10/day)	at_aggressive (0.15/day)	with_consolidation
Primary (111.00)	0.60 pts	6 days	4 days	5-7 trading days
Secondary (110.50)	1.10 pts	11 days	7 days	8-12 trading days

Product Trading Pattern

Treasury futures trade nearly 24 hours (Sun 6pm – Fri 5pm ET). Peak liquidity during US trading hours (8:30am-3pm ET). Key data releases move yields significantly.

Key data releases during window:

release	timing	expected_impact	action
Weekly Jobless Claims	Mar 13 (today)	Moderate	Already released — assess
FOMC Rate Decision	Mar 18-19	Major ($0.50-1.00 move potential)	Core event; position before
Powell Press Conference	Mar 19 2:30pm ET	Major	Volatility spike expected
PCE Prices (next)	Late March	Moderate	Outside primary window

Weekend gap risk: Low for Treasuries. Typical gap 0.10-0.20 pts. Hold full position.

Maximum hold: 14 trading days — exit remaining position regardless.

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Tiered Entry Strategy

tier	entry_price	S/R_basis	fill_probability	R/R_primary	R/R_secondary	allocation
T1: Market	111.60	Current level	100%	0.48	0.88	0% (excluded)
T2: Pullback	112.00	Round number pivot	40%	1.18	1.76	35%
T3: Deep pullback	112.50	Oversold bounce zone	20%	4.29	5.71	35%
T4: Extreme	112.75	Mar 9 bounce high	10%	7.00	8.75	30%

Weighted avg entry (all tiers): $112.38 — R/R: 3.94 / 5.43 Weighted avg entry (T2 only, most likely): $112.00 — R/R: 1.18 / 1.76

Tier Execution Rules

T1 — Market Entry (EXCLUDED)

Do not execute — negative Kelly
R/R ratio (0.48) does not justify risk at current price
Wait for pullback to T2-T4 levels

T2 — Round Number Pullback (fill prob: 40%)

Execute: Limit SHORT at 112.00, GTC
Expected timing: Oversold bounce within 1-3 days
Cancel if: H4 close above 112.85

T3 — Deep Pullback (fill prob: 20%)

Execute: Limit SHORT at 112.50
Expected timing: Only on sharp risk-off day (equity selloff triggering Treasury bid)
Cancel if: H4 close above 113.00

T4 — Extreme Entry (fill prob: 10%)

Execute: Limit SHORT at 112.75 (Mar 9 high)
Cancel if: H4 close above 113.00 — IMMEDIATE, thesis dead

Exit Ladder

exit_tier	price	S/R_basis	action	position_pct
E1	111.50	Recent support test	Partial profit — confirm momentum	20%
E2	111.00	Primary target — weekly support	Major exit	50%
E3	110.50	Secondary target — bear flag measured move	Exit majority	25%
E4	110.00+	Trailing -0.25 from low	Capture extreme moves	5%

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Chart Pattern Pre-Prediction

High Probability Patterns (65%)

HP1: Trend Continuation (probability: 65%)

What it looks like: Series of lower highs, lower lows on H4/Daily. Each bounce fails at lower levels (112.0, then 111.8, then 111.5). Steady grinding decline with 3-5 consecutive down candles followed by 1-2 up candles.

Identification criteria (must see 3 of 4): 1. H4 closes below prior session's low within first 2 candles 2. Bounce attempts fail to reclaim prior H4 close 3. Volume on down candles exceeds 1000; up candles below 500 4. Daily candle bodies expand (increasing momentum)

Expected resolution: Target: 111.00 within 5-7 days, 110.50 within 7-10 days

Trade management: Hold all SHORT positions. Trail stop to 112.50 once price touches 111.00. Take 20% profit at E1, 50% at E2.

Medium Probability Patterns (25%)

MP1: Consolidation/Pause (probability: 25%)

What it looks like: Range-bound between 111.0-112.0 for 3-5 days. Daily candles have long wicks on both sides. Neither bulls nor bears gain control.

Identification criteria (must see 3 of 4): 1. Price stays within 111.0-112.0 for 3+ days 2. H4 velocity drops to <0.05 pts/4hr average 3. Volume declines to <500 on most candles 4. Multiple "inside days" (daily range within prior day)

Expected resolution: Eventual breakdown (65%) or reversal (35%). Hold position but tighten stop to 112.50.

Trade management: Reduce position by 25% if consolidation extends past 5 days. Patience required — let FOMC resolve direction.

MP2: Failed Breakdown (probability: 10%)

What it looks like: Price breaks below 111.0 briefly then reverses sharply. V-shaped recovery from 110.8-111.0 back above 111.5.

Identification criteria (must see 3 of 4): 1. Intraday or H4 close below 111.0 2. Sharp reversal within same or next H4 candle 3. Volume spike on reversal >2000 4. Close back above 111.50 within same day

Expected resolution: Range or reversal. This is a bear trap.

Trade management: Exit 75% of SHORT position immediately. Keep 25% with stop at 112.00.

Low Probability Patterns (10%)

LP1: Trend Reversal (probability: 10%)

What it looks like: Strong bullish engulfing on Daily. Price gaps up through 112.0, 112.5 quickly. Safe haven bid on major risk-off event.

Identification criteria (must see 2 of 3): 1. Daily close above 112.75 (Mar 9 high) 2. Volume >3000 on up move 3. VIX spikes >35; S&P down >2% intraday

Expected resolution: Target 113.0-113.5. Full reversal of recent selloff.

Trade management: EXIT ALL SHORTS immediately. No averaging, no hoping. Reassess from flat.

None-Fit Protocol — Extreme Event → Full Exit

Definition: Price action does NOT match ANY pre-predicted pattern. An event has occurred outside the analyzed probability distribution.

None-fit identification (ANY ONE is sufficient): 1. Velocity anomaly: H4 velocity exceeds 0.25 pts/4hr (2.5x current peak) for 3+ consecutive candles in either direction 2. Volume anomaly: Daily volume exceeds 8000 (3x recent peak) 3. Gap through multiple S/R: Price gaps through 112.0 AND 112.75 simultaneously without trading between 4. Pattern contradiction: Bullish reversal signals and bearish breakdown signals within same session 5. Regime path total failure: Price sustains above 113.00 for 2+ days while oil stays above $100 (inflation + yields down = broken model)

Action: FULL POSITION EXIT within 1 H4 candle. Do not rationalize. Do not average. Do not wait. Exit at market, accept result, reassess from flat.

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Trade Management — Day-by-Day

Day 1 (Thursday Mar 13)

open_scenario	price_range	interpretation	action
Continuation down	below 111.50	Trend acceleration	Place T2-T4 limit orders for bounces; do NOT chase
Sideways	111.50-112.00	Consolidation	Place T2-T4 limit orders; wait
Bounce	112.00-112.50	Recovery attempt	Ideal — T2 may fill; T3 limit active
Strong bounce	above 112.50	Safe haven bid	T3/T4 may fill; assess if stop hit

Volume threshold: 1000+ daily for pattern confirmation

Days 2-3 (Fri-Mon)

Pattern identification checklist:

Is downtrend intact (lower highs, lower lows)?
Has T2 (112.00) filled? If so, manage stop at 112.85
Weekend hold: maintain full position; Treasury weekend gaps are small
Monday: watch for continuation or reversal signals

Days 4-7 (Tue-Fri)

FOMC week Mar 18-19

Reduce position by 25% before FOMC if in profit
Or hold full position if thesis confirmed by pre-FOMC price action
Powell presser Mar 19 2:30pm ET is maximum volatility
Primary target 111.00 likely tested during this window

Days 8+ (Post-FOMC)

If primary target reached: take 70% profit, trail remaining at 111.50
If not reached: reassess thesis based on FOMC outcome
Maximum hold: 14 trading days

Weekend/Event Risk

Weekend gap risk: LOW — hold full position
FOMC risk: HIGH — core thesis event; position sized for this

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Entry Conditions

DO — Enter when:

1. Price bounces to T2 (112.00): Execute limit SHORT, stop 112.85 2. Price bounces to T3 (112.50): Execute limit SHORT, stop 112.85 3. Price bounces to T4 (112.75): Execute limit SHORT, stop 113.00 4. Velocity confirms: Down candles dominate, volume spikes on selling

DON'T — Stay out when:

1. Price gaps above 112.75 on high volume — reversal signal 2. VIX >35 with equity crash (flight-to-quality overwhelms inflation) 3. Brent oil drops below $90 (inflation thesis weakens) 4. Fed signals emergency dovish pivot

Invalidation

Primary: H4 close above 112.85 — trendline broken, stop all T2/T3 entries Secondary: H4 close above 113.00 — full reversal, stop T4, exit all positions

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Trigger Conditions (for daemon)

Entry Triggers

```js // T2: Round number pullback (price) => price >= 111.95 && price <= 112.05

// T3: Deep pullback (price) => price >= 112.45 && price <= 112.55

// T4: Extreme entry at Mar 9 high (price) => price >= 112.70 && price <= 112.80 ```

Exit Triggers

```js // E1: Partial profit at 111.50 (price) => price <= 111.52

// E2: Primary target at 111.00 (price) => price <= 111.02

// E3: Secondary target at 110.50 (price) => price <= 110.52

// E4: Trailing exit (placeholder — requires high-water tracking) (price, highWater) => price >= highWater + 0.25 ```

Stop / Invalidation Triggers

```js // T2/T3 stop — H4 close basis (price) => price >= 112.85

// T4 stop — tighter (price) => price >= 113.00

// Emergency stop — intraday breach of cycle high (price) => price >= 113.50 ```

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Evidence Chain

source	finding	supports
fundamental/result.md	Bullish for yields (bearish for prices); medium confidence	SHORT direction; wait for pullback entries
fundamental/influence-weights.md	PCE (25%) + Oil shock (20%) = 45% inflation-driven	Time window through FOMC; inflation thesis
technical/velocity.md	Fast down (0.091), slow up (0.058), ratio 0.64	Time window 5-7 days; distribution phase
technical/patterns.md	Downtrend confirmed; targets 111.0, 110.5	Primary/secondary targets
technical/participants.md	Institutional sellers dominate	SHORT direction; bounce entries preferred
regime/result.md	Inflation Scare regime; trending behavior	Skew-bearish adjustment; extended time window
kelly-analysis.md	T1 excluded (negative edge); T2-T4 included	Tier allocation; aggregate Kelly 0.703
market-structure/classification.md	Risk-On-Selloff phase (early)	Confirms directional bias; momentum signals dominate

Risk Assessment

Primary risk: Recession fear overtakes inflation fear

If labor data worsens (claims spike, next NFP deeply negative), safe haven bid could reverse trend
Loss estimate: T2 filled, stop at 112.85 = 0.85 pts × 10 units = 8.5 pts = ~$85 loss (0.85% of bankroll)

Secondary risk: FOMC dovish surprise

If Powell signals rate cuts despite inflation, yields drop sharply
Loss estimate: All tiers filled, average stop 112.90 = ~$100-150 loss

Tertiary risk: Geopolitical de-escalation

If Iran war ends suddenly and oil collapses, inflation thesis breaks
Action: Exit immediately regardless of price

Kelly note: T1 excluded due to negative edge (R/R 0.48 with 65% W). Aggregate Kelly of 0.703 across T2-T4 represents strong positive expectancy, but full deployment requires pullback entries that may not fill. Most likely outcome: T2 fills (40% probability) for $1,190 budget exposure.